INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[CajunMama]

jschlitz has taken care of the problem. Now back to our regulary scheduled 90L

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL shows landfall as 45 knot TS in SETX, but TS force winds don't appear to ever come onshore.

[poof121]

GFDL is also intensifing it over land, looks like a min of 993 mbar.

Near South Florida: Discussions & Images Reply with quote
GFDL shows landfall as 45 knot TS in SETX, but TS force winds don't appear to ever come onshore.

[BigA]

The windfield on the GFDL has all the signs of being subtropical: 45kt max winds, very spread out windfield, highest winds away from the center. It is a reasonable, possible conclusion, but things do tend to try to become tropical in the gulf.

[chadtm80]

[americanrebel]

How accurate has the NOGAPS been on it's projected path?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't see it at all on visible, but Gulf WV shows a small circulation (no idea what level, but I'd assume not surface) moving almost due North to the East of the main ULL.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Shear Shear Shear!!

[Stormcenter]

Yes! yes! Yes!

I love shear!

Seriously though 90L does seem to be
consolidating somewhat and looking better organized.
But I still wouldn't get all excited about it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC TUE OCT 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071002 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071002 1800 071003 0600 071003 1800 071004 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.3N 84.0W 25.2N 85.3W 26.7N 86.8W 27.9N 88.7W
BAMD 24.3N 84.0W 26.3N 85.3W 28.0N 87.0W 29.5N 88.3W
BAMM 24.3N 84.0W 25.9N 85.1W 27.7N 86.6W 29.4N 88.1W
LBAR 24.3N 84.0W 25.0N 85.8W 25.9N 87.9W 27.1N 89.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071004 1800 071005 1800 071006 1800 071007 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 90.7W 32.5N 93.8W 37.7N 94.9W 44.1N 93.7W
BAMD 31.1N 89.0W 34.3N 88.0W 36.7N 87.6W 39.6N 85.9W
BAMM 31.2N 89.3W 34.9N 89.4W 38.7N 88.5W 41.6N 84.6W
LBAR 28.3N 91.8W 30.9N 94.3W 36.0N 94.8W 42.4N 89.3W
SHIP 52KTS 47KTS 41KTS 33KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.3N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 78.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[mvtrucking]

If I am looking at this shear map correctly,isn't shear in the 10 knot range over this Invest?

[chadtm80]

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007


.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...TROUBLESOME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA IN THE FLORIDA BAY BUT IT IS STILL INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WITH
BRISK SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE SUN BREAKING OUT IN SOUTHERN AREAS...ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTIVE BUILDUP IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. CUMULUS SHOULD START BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED
POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH A 50 TO 30 NORTH SOUTH DISTRIBUTION
OF POP. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
DICTATES KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED POP AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WED...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE EC FL IN MOIST SE-S FLOW WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
NOT DEPICTED TO BE VERY STRONG...NOTICEABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
DEVELOPS OVER THE PENINSULA SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL TO ROTATE. TEMPS REACHING UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS.

THURS-FRI...GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. EC FL WILL REMAIN IN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING FROM SE-E AS LOW DRIFTS FARTHER
AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. POPS WILL BE IN SCATTERED RANGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

SAT-MON...ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER EC FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND START OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PWATS
EXPECTED. AREA WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH ELONGATING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FL STRAITS/CUBA. SCATTERED
POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FINE TUNING OF POPS
AND WINDS LIKELY NEEDED AS SITUATION UNFOLDS WRT STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH/LOW AND LOCAL WX IMPACTS
TO EC FL.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...SPRATT
LONG TERM....GLITTO

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's HPC discussion:
It sounds like neither 90L and whatever is in the Bahamas
will not have good conditions in the GOM to work with.

THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SHOULD DIRECT ANY
SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A FIRST SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD REACH
OR APPROACH THE WRN OR W-CNTRL GULF COAST BY EARLY DAY 3/FRI AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A TRACK WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EVOLUTION OF FLOW ALOFT AND
VERIFICATION OF RECENT WEAK SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN ATLC.
HPC-TPC COORDINATED TRACK BRINGS THIS SYSTEM JUST S OF THE TX/LA
BORDER AS OF EARLY FRI AND INTO ERN OK AS IT DISSIPATES ON SAT.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
REACHING THE GULF BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
THE COORDINATED FCST DEPICTS ONLY A TROF BASED ON A POTENTIALLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SPREAD AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE.

[otowntiger]

Well with all the globals showing a TX/LA hit...I think it is safe to say that the BAMS and LBAR are on crack.

BTW: I still think the low will eventually consolidate south of where the invest was initialized.

What is the projected timing on this thing?? I heard at one time coming ashore on Thursday pm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The low of questionable tropicality is getting near 25.74 N 85.73 W (25°44'40" N 85°43'30" W) or 262 nm South of Panama City, FL

[Ed Mahmoud]

The low of questionable tropicality is getting near 25.74 N 85.73 W (25°44'40" N 85°43'30" W) or 262 nm South of Panama City, FL

However, I should note surface dewpoint is only 69ºF, which is not rip-roaring tropical. But a 1007.5 mb is sort of low.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO



The EURO takes 90L to a point just south of Galveston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like all the models have come to a good consensus of a landfall somewhere between Central TX and Central LA...with the most likely impact area ATM being just west of the TX/LA border (as seen with the CONU).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Shear Shear Shear!!

Shear actually seems to be diminishing a lot this afternoon...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF