The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Fact789’s October Forecast for the Southeastern US
This is something I am going to try for this month. If I like how it turns out I will do another one for November, if I don’t I will wait a few months until I gain more experience. I am going to try to include every type of weather there is including hurricanes, fronts, pressure systems, temperature, and precipitation. They will be based on current observation, The Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA predictions, and my personal thoughts. I am making this a Southeastern US forecast only because, I am the most experienced in the SE, and I don’t feel confident enough to do it for the Entire US with much accuracy. I define the SE as Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, North and South Carolina. I would very much appreciate all criticism and/or questions or comments.
Precipitation
In general, I expect the south east to be at or above average in terms of rain. The further south you are, the more precip you will likely get. I hate to say that because TN/AL/GA/MS are all in horrible shape for water. The 100 year drought is going on and it might get better. The law of averages says you have to get the flip side of the puzzle at some point. I don’t think this will happen this month. I do think there will be some improvement to the drought. I did a survey of people across the southeast, and one of those people was Brent. He expects it to be dry, but I’m an optimist and I do believe that he and others in the south will get some rain. It is that areas driest month unfortunately. Late month I do expect the fronts to start penetrating the south. The Farmer’s Almanac expects frost midmonth in some locations. Honestly, I don’t think that will be too far off. Here I have noticed it has been right around or just higher than average in terms of precip, and I expect that to continue. Tropical development may bring heavy rains to the south this month as it is climatologically the month Florida’s west coast gets hit the most. For early October, TC’s may impact the WGOM and shift east throughout the month. I do not expect any further drought development.
Temperature
In general, I expect everyone to be about average with extensive warm and dry spots. NOAA predicts a normal October, Brent and MSH predict a warmer October with cold spells, and the Farmers Almanac predicts a cold October with possible frost and “unseasonably cold conditions” elsewhere. Opal Storm expects an average October in terms of temperature. I am leaning toward the cooler side this Autumn. It is already cooling here, no more 90’s. I expect the first week to be warmer than average, and then a cool down. Normally if we are going to have a warm winter, we don’t cool down for a while. I expect a few cool dips in the south. Coastal areas, of course, will stay warmer than others. October is the best of both worlds in terms of not being too hot or too cool.
The Tropics
As I have posted on the board already, I expect an active October. I expect at least 4 named storms. I think 5 storms are likely and 6 not out of the question. Like I said before, this is the West Coast of Florida’s best or worst, depending on how you put it, of getting a TC. Rebekah or Sebastien may be reachable this month. I expect there to be a quiet period for the first part of the month. After that, storms will likely break out. I expect late October to be worse for Florida in terms of the Tropics. I expect a long-ended season, possibly going into December. I expect at least one more strong system in the Atlantic by the end of the season. Unless the shear decreases as a whole over the Atlantic, I expect more short term storms to come out of the ITCZ and out of the Western Caribbean/GOM. I think one of those may be a long runner coming from the Caribbean over Florida and out to the Atlantic possibly hitting the Carolinas or Canada on the way out. The MJO may be coming around late month for note. Overall, I expect a slightly above normal October in terms of the Tropics.
Other Features
The wind will be the big story for the first part of the month. Wind will be rotating around the High stuck over the NE. I expect several severe weather outbreaks this month as the number of cold fronts increase, whether these outbreaks dip into the south, that remains to be seen.
Overall
I expect an average October in all corners. A little wetter and windier and possibly warmer or cooler this month. The Tropics may give trouble mid- to late-month. I don’t expect the normal lull that normally occurs this month.
Let me say again, any and all criticism is welcome. If you liked it please tell me as well. I will be producing an abbreviated version sometime tomorrow. If you are in the SE, and want to do the Survey for next month, let me know.
Thank you!
Jonathan B.-Fact789
