Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[caneman]

How does this are not even get a mention in the TWO? Doesn't make any sense to me.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 78 hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 96 hours

Crossing Cuba.That ridge has to be very strong for it to move WSW and cross Cuba.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 108 hours

Look what happens when it gets to the Western Caribbean warm heat content.

[Vortex]

This could be some storm for many!!!!

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 126 hours

Now aiming to GOM.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 138 hours

Thru Yucatan Channel.

[Steve]

126 hours...

If my math is worth anything 5.3 days from 1pm this afternoon would be about 9:00pm CDT Sunday. I'm going to have to go ahead and guess there would be some interested people around the SE and Texas.

Steve

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 150 hours

Reaches SE GOM.

[Normandy]

Indicates a westward moving system at this point....also implies a strike on the NE Yucatan....

VERY interesting track if that pans out.

[Steve]

That resolution has it to 1001mb cycloneye and obviously strengthening at that point. I'm not sure what the GFS is going to do for the following 48-72 hours (would be about the timeframe for a real threat). I would guess that if anything got strong early, it would have to be fading if it hooked anywhere between NNW and NE...

Steve

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 168 hours

Oh man,this is going slow in the GOM and the hours of the run keep growing.

[Vortex]

MAJOR flood threat for SFL and Keys if this verified..

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 216 hours

YIKES!!

[Vortex]

WOW..This COULD be 1 heck of a storm


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

[Normandy]

Another thing to note is its size....very large system.

Seems to start to turn it NW at this point.

[Steve]

Panhandle threat around Panama City. Looks like GFS senses a pretty big storm there.

[cycloneye]

A summary of this 18z GFS run.It starts east of the Bahamas,then goes WSW and crosses Cuba.Reaches the Western Caribbean,where it gathers strengh.Moves thru the Yucatan CHannel into the GOM.And the rest is posted in the 216 hour timeframe.

This has got my attention far more than 90L.

[Steve]

Well after the 216 hour timeframe, it heads up across northern Alabama, Georgia and parts of Tennessee which could certainly put a damper on drought if there is anything good to find in that particular run.

Steve

[Normandy]

COuld be very damaging for Florida....due to its positioning, Tampa could be in a world of hurt in regards to storm surge if this did verify.