INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Extremeweatherguy]

About 24º and 86º?


No storms nearby.

yeah, it looks pretty bare right now. However, I feel that the D-min tonight might paint a different picture by tomorrow morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

also note the LLC is not right under the ULL seems to be more to the sse. Not as stacked as once thought. Shear maybe a culprit here....

Edit: looking at WV loop the ULL seems to be pulling north separating itself from the LLC which continues west.....very interesting....

Might mean a better chance for this to go right to TD or TS skipping the STD or STS stage.

yeah , I dont know EWG......still some dry air out there and from the looks of it some southerly shear displacing the convection to the north.....ULL is helping the convection no doubt survive.....need to find a shear forecast....

Current, short-term tendancy is for lowering shear in that general region: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[ROCK]

About 24º and 86º?


No storms nearby.

I think we can see that..... however notice how the convection looks sheared to the north and west? no doubt in my mind this is from the LLC at 24N 86W.....remember your looking from the top down into the system. So in essence the system is not currently stacked but sheared. That LLC might dissipate for all I know.... BTW- this is where the tropical models initialized at....

[ROCK]

The buoy in the eastern Gulf gives a very good indication of where the low center is. Check out the image below. With the buoy's wind just shifting to about 100 deg. at 15 kts and a pressure of 1006.8mb, that would put the center just to the S-SSW of the buoy near 25.1N/86.1W. Looks like a mid to upper-level rotation west of the center where the convection is. Note the air with dew points in the low 60s flowing offshore into the NE Gulf. Low 60 dew points aren't good for tropical development, but the pressure gradient north of the low is supporting 25-30kt winds. South of the low only 5-10 kt winds. So still more of a frontal low.

I would agree....still has time though.....

[gerrit]

Confused? What? We are all confused. Its the way of the 2007 season. Best thing is no one has been seriously effected except for my friends just to the E of the Houston-Galveston area such as SG and bbadon. .

.. and roughly 150 people who died because of Dean and Felix and thousands in the tracks of these two 'canes who lost everything.

But wait... they're no Americans, so it doesn't count.

[tailgater]

02/2345 UTC 26.8N 84.9W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Now I am confused with the positions that they are giving.Which is the right one,the SSD at 26.8n or the BAMS 23.8N 85.8W?

just by looking at the vis, I would put the LLC at 24N 86W so yes the BAMM seem correct in this instance, IMO....

Shortwave shows it pretty clear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
also Bouy at 25.7 85.7 has E winds telling us it's south of that point.

[ROCK]

Looks to me the LLC feature is cutting the cord with his friend the ULL. With convection waning tonight seems to be having a negative impact......

[BigA]

What I think is the low level center looks to be about at 23.9N, 85.5W, with the ULL moving away from it to the west. It will be interesting to see if it fires convection tonight; even on shortwave infrared it is a relatively well defined circulation, but devoid of convection. It has a lot of warm water to traverse though, and for now, shear is light.

[Extremeweatherguy]

100% agreed BigA. Tonight is it's shot to shine. With relatively low shear, a defined LLC and an upcoming D-min...I think it is going to be an all or nothing situation. By tomorrow morning/afternoon we will either be saying "game on!" or "game over". Time will tell...

[Blown Away]

LLC looks like it is up near 27N/85W. Not looking real impressive this evening.

[Brent]

Still not impressed. I don't see anything other than a weak TS coming out of this, if that.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 030202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[wxman57]

LLC looks like it is up near 27N/85W. Not looking real impressive this evening.

That position wouldn't be possible unless the low is circulating clockwise. The buoy on the image below is near 25.7N/85.7W. Your position puts it about 80 miles NNE of the buoy. If the center was there, then the buoy's winds would be from the southwest, not from the east. Go with surface obs, not mid or upper-level rotation you might see on IR imagery. The surface obs will show you where the center is. Plenty of them in the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

wxman57, thanks for the education, much more obvious on your map. How about a comment on the Bahamas convection?

[wxman57]

Here's a new analysis. Note the pressure rises of 0.4 and 0.6 mb at the two buoys closest to the low. The eastern Buoy still has an easterly wind, indicating a position just S-SSW of that buoy. Rising pressure indicates either the low is moving off to the west a bit and/or it's weakening. If the low was deepening, the buoy to the west wouldn't be reporting a rising pressure as it approached. Still a long ways to go and not a lot of time before it moves inland on Friday.

[fci]

Confused? What? We are all confused. Its the way of the 2007 season. Best thing is no one has been seriously effected except for my friends just to the E of the Houston-Galveston area such as SG and bbadon. .

.. and roughly 150 people who died because of Dean and Felix and thousands in the tracks of these two 'canes who lost everything.

But wait... they're no Americans, so it doesn't count.

This issue comes up every so often when someone from the CONUS mentions that we have been lucky this season or minimizes the season.

I know it sounds cold and callous but please forgive me.
"Most" of those on this board are from the CONUS.
I know that there are many from The Islands and some from overseas but, from my vantage point; the majority of people who post are from the Continental United States or The Islands.
Their perspective is the Continental United States or The Islands.
Their point of reference is the Continental United States or The Islands.
Given this many will slight the effects of storms elsewhere; like Mexico and some of the Islands.
Then they get a self-righteous lecture about not caring.

Is it possible to spare the lectures?
Do you REALLY think that people don't care?

I just think that people are most concious of their own "universe" and when they don't see posts from affected people, it is easy to forget them. I am very glad that the board is frequented by people from the Islands and I have befriended some (in the S2K world) wonderful people so I AM very cognizant of the worries and welfare of those people.

Sorry for the lecture but it seems that the "political correctness police" come out scolding and lecturing each time this comes up and I grow weary of it.

I FEEL for ANYONE that is caused hardship by ANYTHING that they have no control over and I TRULY BELIEVE that almost all residents of S2K feel the same way.

(off of my soapbox.... thank you for your time)
fci

[wxman57]

wxman57, thanks for the education, much more obvious on your map. How about a comment on the Bahamas convection?

See my comments I just posted in the Bahamas system thread.

[Blown Away]

This might be a dumb question but shouldn't the buoy to the east of the cross hair/LLC be reporting more of a southeast wind?

[wxman57]

This might be a dumb question but shouldn't the buoy to the east of the cross hair/LLC be reporting more of a south wind?

I didn't bother repositioning the crosshair from an earlier position estimate. But with a poorly-organized low, there isn't a very tight circulation. The circulation is most likely elongated. Earlier, I saw some evidence of two lows, kind of peanut-shaped. Like TD 10 before it, 90L is lacking that well-defined circulation. May be another 12-24hrs before it does so.

[Sambucol]

If this system moves onto the upper TX coast Friday, what conditions can we expect and will it be during the day? Just wondering if school will be canceled.