Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

Agree,a little west.But run still is rolling so lets see what the area of landfall will be.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 174 Hours

1000 mbs.A little more west.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 228 Hours

Wow what a change from a run to another trackwise.The 18z run had a Florida Panhandle landfall but at the 00z run has old Mexico all written.This means it misses the front,or the front is not strong enough.

Ok start the discussions now about this run.

[fci]

Sorry to interrupt.
Does anyone know of a system that followed a course like what the GFS is outlining here?
Bahamas--SW move----storm crosses Cuba the OPPOSITE way than normal.(NE to SW)
The turn North from the NW Carib is quite normal so I don't need to see any priors that did this; there are plenty.

[ROCK]

did the CMC give its drugs to the GFS....?? looks fairly similar....

[Normandy]

Well, this lets me know that the GFS is confused.....a track shift that big is disconcerting....gotta wait for another run to see if it can get some consistency.

[cycloneye]

Also is weird that it becomes stationary for a while in the SEGOM.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS Loop

Here is the loop of the 00z GFS run.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC

The 00z CMC run is almost similar to the 00z GFS trackwise.

[robert_88]

Funny how the fronts have been coming in pretty strong the last couple of weeks and now with that latest GFS run it looks like they might be less impressive. Mannn...if this were to actually pan out what another great timing for the U.S. dodging another bullet. Seems the weather Gods have some beef with Mexico this year. It is strange like cycloneye stated above how the GFS shows such a slow movement to possibly stationary. If the GFS model were to underestimate the trough at that time then Texas to the Florida Panhandle could take a direct hit.

[Blown Away]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030922
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Vortex]

00Z Euro takes system to the NW carribean where it meanders and then heads NE back across Cuba and the Florida Straights the end of next week. This would be consistent with climatology.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100300!!/

[Vortex]

GFS 6Z

H+96 Yucatan Channel

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Vortex]

latest IR continues to indicate organization...Looking forward to visibles as it looks like an LLC is beginning to form

[caneman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2.jpg

[caneman]

Go to active storm forum as NHC has as invest on their site.

[cycloneye]

Floater 2 is over this.I smell invest 91L later today.

[Thunder44]

From what I see, that's not the Bahamas. It's on former TS Melissa.

Edit: Now I get an image from the Bahamas.

[caneman]

I think it is Bahams system. Why was this pulled from active storms?

[cycloneye]

Yes,it says invest in the Floaters site,but until there is a invest in NRL,no thread will be made in active storms forum.