WPAC: Tropical Depression LEKIMA

Chacor · #41 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 11:21 am

Interesting to note that convection did not diminish throughout the day and instead got stronger as we approached evening.

chadtm80 · #42 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 12:11 pm

Good Lord.. Sure lookin rough..

southerngale · #43 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 4:29 pm

Geesh... I'd hate to be in the path of THAT! :eek:

#44 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:02 pm

Still 55 kt by both JMA and JTWC.

southerngale · #45 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Still 55 kt by both JMA and JTWC.

That's it? I figured it was much stronger, by the looks of it.

wxmann_91 · #46 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 6:39 pm

southerngale wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Still 55 kt by both JMA and JTWC.

That's it? I figured it was much stronger, by the looks of it.

It's hard to tell on IR, but the LLC is actually on the northeastern edge of the convection and is partially exposed.

#47 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:56 pm

Now 60 kt on JMA (almost a typhoon).

Cyclenall · #48 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:57 pm

LATEST:

This was on the NRL

#49 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 7:57 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2007 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 16:38:44 N Lon : 111:10:14 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 984.7mb/ 57.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Coredesat · #50 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 8:35 pm

Cyclenall wrote:LATEST:

This was on the NRL

Error. That's actually the edge of the earth, so NRL is having processing errors right now.

Chacor · #51 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 8:44 pm

Latest vis:

#52 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 01, 2007 8:52 pm

Chacor · #53 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:55 am

JTWC upgrade to Typhoon 16W.

#54 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:10 am

Held at T4.0 at 1200 by RSMC Tokyo so it will likely be held as a STS. Thailand and China have both upgraded this this morning as well to 65kts (965hPa) and 33m/s (975hPa) respectively.

Chacor · #55 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:17 am

JMA actually weakened it to 55 kt.

165
FKPQ30 RJTD 021200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20071002/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: LEKIMA
NR: 14
PSN: N1735 E11005
MOV: WNW 06KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 03/0000Z N1800 E10830
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 03/1200Z N1830 E10635
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
NXT MSG: 20071002/1800Z =

#56 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:29 am

Although it's only getting partial, it looks like an eyewall and therefore, a typhoon.

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#57 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:49 pm

02/2030 UTC 17.5N 108.0E T4.5/4.5 LEKIMA -- West Pacific Ocean

Warrants an upgrade to Typhoon Lekima?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #58 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:13 am

Appears to be 75-80 knots right now...In as it moves at land it could strengthen to.

#59 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:18 am

Looks like it is now making landfall.

Chacor · #60 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:38 am

JMA now have this as a weakening TD well inland, just inside Thailand, about 10 miles west of the Laotian border and about 105 miles west of Viang Chan (Vientiane), Lao PDR.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 18N 101E NW SLOWLY.

WPAC: Tropical Depression LEKIMA

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