INVEST 91L : East of Lesser Antilles : Gone from NRL

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Here is the new invest for the wave in Central Atlantic.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98426&p=1649254#p1649254

Link to thread in Talking Tropics.

[HURAKAN]

Models here!

[cycloneye]

[bDISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20071003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1200 071004 0000 071004 1200 071005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 40.7W 10.0N 42.9W 11.1N 45.1W 12.1N 47.3W
BAMD 8.9N 40.7W 9.7N 43.4W 10.8N 45.9W 11.9N 47.7W
BAMM 8.9N 40.7W 9.7N 43.5W 10.6N 46.0W 11.5N 48.2W
LBAR 8.9N 40.7W 9.5N 42.3W 10.3N 44.0W 11.3N 46.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1200 071006 1200 071007 1200 071008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 49.9W 14.8N 54.4W 16.9N 58.6W 20.0N 61.4W
BAMD 13.1N 49.1W 15.7N 50.9W 19.2N 51.7W 22.7N 50.1W
BAMM 12.4N 50.4W 14.4N 54.0W 17.0N 56.7W 20.6N 58.0W
LBAR 12.2N 48.4W 14.5N 52.7W 18.4N 55.4W 22.6N 54.9W
SHIP 39KTS 39KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 39KTS 39KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 38.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

][/b]

Invest is for wave in Central Atlantic.

[Chacor]

20 kts on NRL.

[HURAKAN]

Looks very good!

[Fego]

Hope it takes advantage of the low shear.. because ahead is another ball game.

[Fego]

First models...

[Chacor]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 31 35 37 38 39 41 40 39 33
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 31 35 30 28 27 27 27 29 29
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 29 29

Not much expected by SHIPS.

[Fego]

91L
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 38.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Fego]

Ummm interesting, but at the wrong topic

[Buck]

Nice outflow, but the core leaves something to be desired.

[Fego]

Loos like now it has Floater #3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[WmE]

Looks good and if it develops it will probably be a fish.

[JtSmarts]

A fish hurricane would be nice, too bad shear will probably destroy it.

[mightyerick]

Another Ingrid/Karen/Melissa thingy???

[Fego]

Talking about baseball: !great curve!

[Buck]

The floater image looks better... a bit more consolidated in the core than I thought. A fish hurricane would be nice...

[mightyerick]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


so it looks like a race, which system would get named first???
90L, 91L, 92L.
My guesses:

90L TS Noel
92L TS Olga
91L TS Pablo

conditions wouldnt be favorable for development of hurricane, so i dare to think that we will have three TS ... i think.
Noel has to confront dry air.
Olga has a lot of shear ahead
Pablo has an approaching cold front and wind shear

[Sanibel]

Wow! They were right about a flurry of activity in the late season as NHC predicted. Only it is mostly sheared storms that come to nothing.

At first look this system gets the Sanibel guarantee of formation. This was out of the blue. Another late CV wave that spins! Unusual. Only it looks like another weak wave with dry pockets.

Is this one going to go west? Will this one be the dreaded surprise?