INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Stormcenter]

Ok. That's enough obsessing over this for now. Time to go get a burger at Five Guys. If you have one of those in your town, check it out. Best burger and fries ever.

92L will still be there when I get back.

Unfortunately it may be around longer then that.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Actually we will not be happy until this thing is dead and gone!

[Portastorm]

Well, beside sthe fact is was downright chilly in Houston this morning, if the ridge holds, the steering is Westward, and if trough comes down, the steering between a trough and a ridge is Northward or Northeastward.

Climatology isn't magic, just this time of time of year the subtropical ridge just isn't far enough North to steer things West.

But on the bright side for Texas extreme weather fanatics, only 7 weeks until another potential Cowboy's Thanksgiving Day game in mixed snow, sleet and graupel.

I'm an advocate of climatology just like you ... but as several pro mets have said, the pattern right now is much more like an early September and not early October. A fairly strong ridge could mean a west-northwest path once it reaches the south or south-central Gulf as well, I think. I guess I just wouldn't rule anything out at this point given the unusual pattern. And remember, climatology is simply the average between extreme events!

As for snow/sleet/graupel on Turkey Day ... heh, wouldn't that be fun?!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 12 Hours

12z GFS at 30 Hours

12z GFS at 42 Hours

12z GFS at 54 Hours

12z GFS at 66 Hours

12z GFS at 84 Hours In Western Caribbean

12z GFS at 96 Hours

12z GFS at 108 Hours Moving closer to Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 120 Hours Moving Thru Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 138 Hours Goes into Yucatan?

12z GFs at 156 Hours Parked on NW Corner of Yucatan

12z GFs at 168 Hours Still Parked over Yucatan

12z GFS at 216 Hours Whoa,it comes back to W Caribbean

12z GFS at 228 Hours Going Back towards Cuba

12z GFS at 240 Hours East of South Florida moving NE

12z GFS at 252 Hours Out To sea


Remember that this will be the post to look for all the timeframes of this 12z run.

[Weatherboy1]

Not an exact analogue, but very-late-season Hurricane Kate in 1985 formed east of the Bahamas and tracked almost due W into the Gulf via the FL straits before finally hooking N and then NE. So it's possible for ridges to keep storms heading W (and I suppose, even SW) in the late season (Kate was late-November)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_%281985%29

[fci]

Not everybody thinks much of JB, but back in June he thought seasonal pattern would favor an October Caribbean to Florida hurricane...



If this forms, I guess, big question, does ridge hold and into Mexico, or does trough come by and turn it North or Northeast towards Central or Eastern Gulf?

Ed:
You didn't give Kudos to JB for making a prediction that every Met and anyone who follows the tropics would make every year; did you????

[Sanibel]

Wxman57: I think you're wrong and that is the forming center. But we'll see if your greater center evolves closer to the convection. This site is addicting. We'll see later which center forms.

[wzrgirl1]

what makes me nervous about this is the fact that it is not supposed to even make any movements until late thursday or friday.....gives it time to develop over those warm waters....could be significant if you asked me

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has it approaching eastern Cuba (21.4N/75.2W) by noon Saturday. No indication of any threat to south Florida with the ridge building over the east coast.

84hr in - over Cayman Islands 7pm CDT Saturday.

[mightyerick]

wxman... is this the remanent of Karen???

[JTD]

Let's hope that the poor people in the Yucatan and Mainland Mexico don't get this one. They've had far more than their fair share of devastating hurricanes this year and need time to recover and rebuild.

[cpdaman]

sanibel i would take wxman's experience and place my money on his forecasts in comparison.

BUT the shear appears to be Northerly so if the center was further north like u beleive the convection would be to the south (like it appears)

[Vortex]

Bouy confirms my placement of center near 27.6N/71W


Station 41047 - NE Bahamas



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 41047 as of
(11:50 am EDT)


Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 5.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 68 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 81.5 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
11:50 am NW ( 324 deg ) 5.2 kts
11:40 am NNW ( 333 deg ) 5.6 kts
11:30 am NNW ( 336 deg ) 5.4 kts
11:20 am NNW ( 336 deg ) 5.6 kts
11:10 am NNW ( 327 deg ) 6.2 kts
11:00 am WNW ( 301 deg ) 4.1 kts
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
11:04 am 7.0 kts NNW ( 328 deg true )

[cycloneye]

Any comments about the GFS run? being posted

[wxman57]

Any comments about the GFS run? being posted

Looks reasonable given the strength of the ridge projected to build over the east U.S. Coast. 00Z ECMWF indicated a position near the northern Yucatan Monday tracking west toward Mexico. Don't see any fronts/trofs dipping down into the Gulf to turn it northward.

[cycloneye]

Now,what is going on at 138 hours with the track that goes inland to Yucatan?

[hurricanetrack]

Well, there it is again. The ridge saves the day for the U.S. At least we won't have to spend endless hours wondering if this will turn north and hit the U.S.

Interesting too how weak it is on this run as compared to other runs. I mean, look at the 18Z run yesterday. That was quite a hurricane it had. Now, just a weak 1006 mb low parked over the Yucatan.

So....weaker means more west again, right?

[HouTXmetro]

Any comments about the GFS run? being posted

Looks reasonable given the strength of the ridge projected to build over the east U.S. Coast. 00Z ECMWF indicated a position near the northern Yucatan Monday tracking west toward Mexico. Don't see any fronts/trofs dipping down into the Gulf to turn it northward.

That would be very unusual for this time of year. When was the last time a storm from the Atlantic hit the MX Gulf Coast? I can't buy this run, just a gut feeling not backed by any data except climo.

[wxman57]

Now,what is going on at 138 hours with the track that goes inland to Yucatan?

Strong ridge to the north means west movement. 157hr has it in NE BOC. 180 hr inland into Yucatan and dissipating. Interesting.