INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Blown Away]

Vortex, hard to argue w/ you. Looks like a cyclonic spin near 27.6N/71W w/ convection building around that area. I'm basing that observation on the NHC visible floater. Wxman57 has better resources to determine LLC locations. That being said, I can't imagine there is high confidence on the LLC location at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[canegrl04]

Time to turn out the lights on the season as far as US hits go.Shear and ridging has saved us.I doubt that will be the case in 2008

[cycloneye]

Looks like it dies over Yucatan.

[hurricanetrack]

Other scenario to think about: it sits in the BOC for a few days and starts back out to the NE as something comes along to force that. Right now, not seeing that "something" so this may be another one that defies what we think will happen. Still, it's a week or more away.

What puzzles me too is that the outlook says this:

THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.


But the GFS shows this heading south and even southeast from the get-go. That's not west on Thursday or Friday.

[Steve H.]

The LLC is clearly at that position. My problem with the whole basin right now is tht there's entirely too much shear for significant development, and this is why the models are not bullish on anything strong developing. Basin could use a good enema

[hurricanetrack]

Doh! I know it's 200,000 hours out, but it does come back east after what looked like a shoe-in for Mexico.

Bottom line: we will have a great week ahead of wondering what the heck this thing will do.

Oh, and you gotta love the 4 or 5 lows that the GFS has around 66 hours or so:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

Look at all of them. They can't all be 92L...

[wxman57]

Vortex, hard to argue w/ you. Looks like a cyclonic spin near 27.6N/71W w/ convection building around that area. I'm basing that observation on the NHC visible floater. Wxman57 has better resources to determine LLC locations. That being said, I can't imagine there is high confidence on the LLC location at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

There isn't a significant LLC at this point, just a small low-level eddy well north of the convection. May not have a well-defined LLC for another day or two.

[ronjon]

Strange 12Z GFS run - takes it SW to the Yucatan, moves it west into the BOC, brings it back east to the Yucatan, moves it south over the Yucatan, then finally scoots it E-NE back through the Fl straits. I'll bet someone a million bucks that that track does not materialize. Seems to me that the steering currents really weaken by the time it makes it to the north coast of the Yucatan. I noticed by that time that the 500 mb ridge along TX and the gulf coast essentially vanishes at that point too. Still, I find it hard to believe that we may be tracking this storm for 9 or 10 days. Of course, look what Mitch did in October so maybe its not that far fetched.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 12 Hours

12z GFS at 30 Hours

12z GFS at 42 Hours

12z GFS at 54 Hours

12z GFS at 66 Hours

12z GFS at 84 Hours In Western Caribbean

12z GFS at 96 Hours

12z GFS at 108 Hours Moving closer to Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 120 Hours Moving Thru Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 138 Hours Goes into Yucatan?

12z GFs at 156 Hours Parked on NW Corner of Yucatan

12z GFs at 168 Hours Still Parked over Yucatan

12z GFS at 216 Hours Whoa,it comes back to W Caribbean

12z GFS at 228 Hours Going Back towards Cuba

12z GFS at 240 Hours East of South Florida moving NE

12z GFS at 252 Hours Out to sea


Remember that this will be the post to look for all the timeframes of this 12z run.

OK Folks,what a run.From The Bahamas,Crossing Cuba,Western Caribbean,Yucatan Channel,Inside Yucatan for a While,Going NE towards Cuba again,Crosses Cuba into Florida Straits,and then out to sea.WOW!! Comments please!

[wxman57]

wxman... is this the remnant of Karen???

Nope. Karen's remnants stayed east of the Caribbean.

[fci]

Is it the remnants of 97L that was in SE Carib and moved towards PR and DR??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gonna agree 100% with wxman57.

I think this goes SW into the Caribbean and develops
further over the warm waters and goes west to mexico...leaving
hot and sunny and quite frankly, boring weather over florida (especially
central and north FL).


From a strong ridge to a strong trough that pushes it NE...That is just
insane---> I don't think it will get pushed NE

And as for it moving first SW, all the models want to do that
so I guess I'm not getting any tropical storm winds from this.

Dang that stupid ridge!!!

Oh well I had enough fun with barry, td 10, and 90L.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



The Canadian model in the 12z run,tracks almost the same as GFS except that it does not turn around out to sea like GFS.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It depends on so many variables. Plus it is only one GFS run. Which we all know will change. The strength of the system, Front, High. All play a role. Hard to say what it will do.

[eaglegirl]

Comments please!

Again, thank you for posting the runs.

Although I am keeping a very close eye on 90L throughout the afternoon, this is the one I am watching with the most caution. For sure, I would not turn my back on it. As we can all see, 92L has the potential to cause quite a bit of harm and grief.

[fci]

12z GFS at 12 Hours

12z GFS at 30 Hours

12z GFS at 42 Hours

12z GFS at 54 Hours

12z GFS at 66 Hours

12z GFS at 84 Hours In Western Caribbean

12z GFS at 96 Hours

12z GFS at 108 Hours Moving closer to Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 120 Hours Moving Thru Yucatan Channel

12z GFS at 138 Hours Goes into Yucatan?

12z GFs at 156 Hours Parked on NW Corner of Yucatan

12z GFs at 168 Hours Still Parked over Yucatan

12z GFS at 216 Hours Whoa,it comes back to W Caribbean

12z GFS at 228 Hours Going Back towards Cuba

12z GFS at 240 Hours East of South Florida moving NE

12z GFS at 252 Hours Out to sea


Remember that this will be the post to look for all the timeframes of this 12z run.

OK Folks,what a run.From The Bahamas,Crossing Cuba,Western Caribbean,Yucatan Channel,Inside Yucatan for a While,Going NE towards Cuba again,Crosses Cuba into Florida Straits,and then out to sea.WOW!! Comments please!

Looks like a Carnival or Norwegian Cruise lines itinerary to me!!!
Bingo on the Lido deck at 4:00.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a Carnival or Norwegian Cruise lines itinerary to me!!!
Bingo on the Lido deck at 4:00.

Good analogy about this GFS run.

[Blown Away]

The cyclonic spin appears to be closer to 70-71W, I don't see how they got the 74.1W location. 25N area seems about right, IMO

[wxman57]

I have the 12Z GFS plotted in 1/2 mb increments and see the center just drifting around for 36-48 hours as the ridge builds to its northwest. Then a SSW-SW movement toward eastern Cuba as the ridge strengthens. Makes perfect sense. Perhaps a couple of 700-400mb mean wind maps can illustrate why it won't be moving much for the next day or two before heading off to the SW. Here's a 6-day animation showing the mean flow with 1mb surface pressures and the low center identified.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/90L.gif

[mightyerick]

I must correct my "tropical storm peak" for this system. Now models agree about put it as a hurricane, perhaps mayor.