WPAC: Typhoon KROSA

[Dave C]

In 4 to 5 days it will be passing near the same islands that were hit by the last one. Miyaka-Jima and the others to the southwest.

[Chacor]

Upgraded to a typhoon earlier at 06z and now 75 kts.

[Chacor]

JMA is up to T5.5 on Typhoon Krosa at 12z. 5.5 on the JMA Dvorak scale is 85 knots.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 17.7N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 20.6N 127.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 051200UTC 22.8N 125.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 061200UTC 24.6N 123.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

80 kts now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA have now shifted the track further towards northern Taiwan. ECMWF, GFS, UK MET AND CMC are all forecasting a hit on Taiwan so I expect the regional agencies to adjust their forecasts more in line with this model agreement. If indeed this happens and it looks like Krosa's on course for a Taiwan hit I'll be on standy to intercept.

[Typhoon Hunter]

BTW the names Krosa was contributed by Cambodia and means crane (bird) in Khmer.

For member more familiar with the 1 min average wind speeds, the latest non-official JTWC forecast shows a monster typhoon, 125kts sustained passing just off the NW coast of Taiwan in about 4 days. They too have swung their forecast back towards a more westward track....

[HURAKAN]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/tropical/434.JPG/img]

[apocalypt-flyer]

Wait, 125knots just northeast of Taiwan and then into East China? That's what I'd call De-ja-vú.

[HURAKAN]

Wait, 125knots just northeast of Taiwan and then into East China? That's what I'd call De-ja-vú.

Did you see it or experienced it before it happened? Because that's what Deja vú means.

[Typhoon Hunter]

STY Wipha, about 3 weeks ago....

[CrazyC83]

Could we ultimately see Super Typhoon Krosa?

[apocalypt-flyer]

Certainly possible but we'll just have to wait and see.

[P.K.]

Could we ultimately see Super Typhoon Krosa?

The CMA have just upgraded it to that with winds of 45m/s increasing to 55m/s within 24 hours.

WTPQ20 BABJ 031800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY KROSA 0716 (0715) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC
00HR 18.4N 128.8E 950HPA 45M/S
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 180KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 20.6N 126.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 22.7N 123.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 24.6N 122.0E 950HPA 45M/S=

RSMC Tokyo have just upped it to 85kts as well.

** WTPQ21 RJTD 031800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 18.3N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 85NM
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 20.8N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 051800UTC 23.2N 123.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 061800UTC 25.4N 121.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

[apocalypt-flyer]

This is improving quite rapidly. Cat 3 in 12 hours is forecasted but I'm thinking more like Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

This is improving quite rapidly. Cat 3 in 12 hours is forecasted but I'm thinking more like Cat 4.

It's probably a Cat 3 now...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a Cat 4 already.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 18.4N 128.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 20.9N 125.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 051800UTC 23.2N 123.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 061800UTC 25.4N 121.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[CrazyC83]

Now a Cat 4 according to JTWC, forecasting a Cat 5 super typhoon:

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (KROSA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 128.8E

[Cyclone1]

Wow... Rapid intensification is kind of a theme this year, it seems.