INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[StormTracker]

If this verifies, it will probably be considered the most "DISCOMBOBULATED"(did I spell that right)track a storm has ever taken!!!

[JTD]

With this being October 3rd and not August 3rd, I think it is far more likely that this track verifies than the 12Z track. A hurricane heading wsw across the entire GOM into Mainland Mexico seems highly unlikely.

Remember Rita was supposed to go west to Mexico in the very first few forecasts as well and did not. That's one example. I'm sure there are others.

[cycloneye]

This run is different than the 12z as it was stationary inland in Yucatan,while the 18z run has it almost stationary over water just north of Yucatan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I mean an Opal track is possible into the panhandle but it is going
to take a much stronger trough in order for this to actually hit the
FL peninsula.

And being near the yucatan it may be pulled north up to Mississippi/Alabama...
Mother Nature would "balance" the drought there although in a sudden strong way.

[attallaman]

I mean an Opal track is possible into the panhandle but it is going
to take a much stronger trough in order for this to actually hit the
FL peninsula.

And being near the yucatan it may be pulled north up to Mississippi/Alabama...
Mother Nature would "balance" the drought there although in a sudden strong way.

Did you say there's a possibility of 92L coming towards Mississippi/Alabama as a what? TD, TS, a cane? Where is the track located that everyone is talking about? Got a link? What other sites can you go to besides Weather Underground and Skeetobite Weather to see computer model tracks or as I refer to them spaghetti noodle runs?

[cycloneye]

Thanks eaglegirl for those words of support.Trust me,it is not easy to do this posting of runs of every timeframe in one post.But I do my best to offer the members the best way to be informed of the latest on the model runs.

[Sanibel]

28.2N-72W must be the center because it is too well developed to be a vortex.

[srainhoutx]

Good Job cycloneye. Thanks for all you do.

[Blown Away]

Climatology works great with a low that develops in the NW Caribbean then moves towards SFL, but your forgetting this low develops E of the Bahamas then moves WSW 600 miles near/through FL Straits to the Yucatan then turns around and heads back towards FL. To wild for me.

[vacanechaser]

Anyone care to tell me what makes 92L take this sharp NE turn??? This is one crazy looking track IF this even verifies.

here is the upper air pattern, looks like a trough does dig down in there in the upper levels... 500mb level... 204 hours





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

Here is the culprit that turns the storm to the NE. It's a rather deep cutoff low that stalls over western Kentucky and sharpens a trough with time.

[attallaman]

Climatology works great with a low that develops in the NW Caribbean then moves towards SFL, but your forgetting this low develops E of the Bahamas then moves WSW 600 miles near/through FL Straits to the Yucatan then turns around and heads back towards FL. To wild for me.

Where do you see 92L doing that? Got a link?

[ronjon]

If the 18Z GFS upper air pattern verifies, this storm will never reach the BOC - that is one serious trough the GFS digs into the GOM that will carry this system NE and N. I can't say I can argue with it in that it sure fits climatology. Will this storm move SW - yeah, with a big 500 mb ridge building over the east coast - but unlike August, it won't persist as long.

[ronjon]

And here is the massive ridge that initially moves the storm SW.

[vacanechaser]

Climatology works great with a low that develops in the NW Caribbean then moves towards SFL, but your forgetting this low develops E of the Bahamas then moves WSW 600 miles near/through FL Straits to the Yucatan then turns around and heads back towards FL. To wild for me.

Where do you see 92L doing that? Got a link?

go back to page 4 and look at the links cycloneye posted of the gfs....




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

784
WHXX04 KWBC 032330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.5 73.2 270./ 1.9
6 26.7 73.5 311./ 2.9
12 26.6 73.7 248./ 2.4
18 26.2 74.1 229./ 4.7
24 26.0 74.5 236./ 4.8
30 25.1 75.2 219./10.7
36 24.6 75.7 227./ 6.3
42 24.2 76.1 223./ 5.0
48 23.9 76.8 242./ 7.5
54 23.6 77.7 254./ 8.7
60 23.3 79.0 255./12.4
66 23.3 80.1 270./10.3
72 23.0 81.0 256./ 8.6
78 22.9 81.8 257./ 7.7
84 22.9 83.3 271./13.2
90 23.5 84.2 303./10.2
96 23.9 85.1 296./ 9.0
102 24.2 86.1 285./10.1
108 25.1 87.8 300./17.5
114 25.2 89.0 275./11.1
120 25.2 89.7 271./ 6.8
126 24.9 90.0 223./ 4.3

18z GFDL.

[vacanechaser]

if i am correct, and if not i am sure someone will correct me, the 200mb level is the outflow levels generally?? if so, the pattern at the 204 hour looks like a southwest to northeast flow..





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tolakram]

Climatology is the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time

We don't have enough data, I wish more people would understand that. 200 years, IF we had that much reliable data, is NOTHING. Besides, even if you believe we have enough data and are comfortable working with averages you must know that for something to be in the middle there has to be incidents on both sides of that middle.

[vacanechaser]

some HWRF and a possible genesis flight tomorrow

goooooooood



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Circulation near 25N/72.5W, moving S slowly?