INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[eaglegirl]

Well, thanks again for posting the models.

I am still of the opinion that we will have to wait until there is further organization for the models to gain accuracy.

That's a very big hot mess sitting out there with too much junk in the trunk.

Just my opinion... but, I don't think it is going to remain docile and behave.

[cycloneye]

Well, thanks again for posting the models.

I am still of the opinion that we will have to wait until there is further organization for the models gain accuracy.

That's a very big hot mess sitting out there with too much junk in the trunk.

Just my opinion... but, I don't think it is going to remain docile and behave.

I agree about waiting for a well defined LLC but also having the data from the planes especially the gulfstream jet can help the models to feed data to improve the runs in comming days.

[fci]

if it hits cuban coast...then Happy Trails!

Depends on which part of Cuba it crosses.
Eastern Cuba= mountanis = major disturbance to circulation
Central or Western Cuba= very little effect to intensity

Count as a skeptic that a system will cross over Cuba from the Fl Straits to the NW Carib. Have not known if it ever has happened before.

[dwsqos2]

FWIW

00Z CMC

[fci]

I am getting tired of hearing all about climo.....

Why are you tired of hearing about climo?

It is what USUALLY happens unless unusual circumstances present themselves.

What the models and Pros are saying about 92L IS unusual.
But it is certainly valid to keep bringing up "Climo" as it is wholly justifiable.

Look at it like when you see Trevor Hoffman with a 2 run lead in having to get 3 outs. Climo would say that he WILL get the save.
But sometimes he doesn't.
Just ask the Padres and Rockies the other night.
Pretty unfair to just toss out the climo even if once in a while it is wrong.

So, I am afraid myself and others will continue to toss "climo" out at you.
Get used to it and accept its validity for it is right "most" of the time.
Once in a while it is not. Which makes this whole thing REAL interesting....

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,that is a big change fron CMC that had it in the BOC at the 12z run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A broad LLC apears to have started to develop near 26 north/72.5 west. You can see the clouds are starting to moving counterclock wise around that area. Also the eddie/small LLC to the northwest is starting to loop around southwestward, in is now part of the developing LLC. You can also see the convection forming.

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, just saw that too. So, not all of the models drive this over to the southern BOC.

I still want to know this:

why does the NHC say "THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY."

and the GFS shows it NOT moving west until several frames in to the run? Why does the NHC keep saying "west"?

[BigA]

The CMC 00 run would be undesirable. Intensity is a stab in the dark at this point, but worth noting the massive change in direction from the 12 run, even if it is the CMC

[hurricanetrack]

WTH is that low level swirl thingy? It's been there since earlier today and is still in there- tight and swirling around. Moving westward too. What is that?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTH is that low level swirl thingy? It's been there since earlier today and is still in there- tight and swirling around. Moving westward too. What is that?

A LLC and its starting to go southwestward the last few frames around the developing LLC to its southeast.

[Wren]

I looked at that last OOZ CMC loop which ends with the storm at Louisiana's doorstep. My question is this: If that should just happen to prove true how likely is it the high pressure over Tx and LA would force the storm to turn southwest and back towards the BOC?

I guess what I'm getting at is how high does the pressure have to be to have much of an influencing effect on, let's say, a well organized tropical cyclone?

[Scorpion]

That new CMC run is without a doubt the strongest I have ever seen it portray for a cyclone.

[HouTXmetro]

That track looks Rita-esq

[HouTXmetro]

Two LLC's? or an LLC and eddy?

[ericinmia]

I am still a little shocked that the CMC may be the blind squirrel finding a nut in the dark...

Like usual, i'm fairly confident it is off on intensity, but the fact that it has portrayed a somewhat similar track that is mirrored by many models... expecially that the canadian pinned it first is somewhat shocking compared to it's mean performance this season.

Now it's simply a waiting game, of when, how and where....
We shall see....

[Cyclenall]

Can someone post the full GFS loop .

[skysummit]

I am still a little shocked that the CMC may be the blind squirrel finding a nut in the dark...

Like usual, i'm fairly confident it is off on intensity, but the fact that it has portrayed a somewhat similar track that is mirrored by many models... expecially that the canadian pinned it first is somewhat shocking compared to it's mean performance this season.

Now it's simply a waiting game, of when, how and where....
We shall see....

Maybe not. It has 92L passing directly over the loop current and the gulf has not been tapped this season. Plus, many models have been showing pretty darn good upper level conditions in that time frame. If something would happen to get in the gulf within the next 5 - 7 days, I believe it's quite possible it'll blow up.

Dr. Gray said we'll have two more hurricanes in October with one being a major. Maybe this is the one. It's quite interesting to see the drastic change between runs though. I agree with you it's been a very weird season with the Canadian pin pointing many of the tropical systems before any other model....maybe this will be another nut found

[dwsqos2]

00Z GFDL

[Vortex]

Satellite imagery as of 745utc shows increased organization taking place and what appears to be the developing LLC forming..Ship reports as of 350AM also suggest a closed circulation forming as west winds are reported. The outflow in the East and SE quad is improving..Here we go...