INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Vortex]

6Z NAM

Upper Keys/SFl


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[wzrgirl1]

now that's a change huh?

6Z NAM

Upper Keys/SFl


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Vortex]

00z to 6z about an 80mile northward adjustment at H+72

The thing to follow is trends...

[wzrgirl1]

wow almost a degree and a half....that's big

[Vortex]

Pressures continuing to fall...



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 41046 as of
(4:50 am EDT)
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 80.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
4:50 am SSE ( 168 deg ) 8.4 kts
4:40 am S ( 174 deg ) 8.7 kts
4:30 am S ( 179 deg ) 9.3 kts
4:20 am S ( 182 deg ) 9.7 kts
4:10 am S ( 185 deg ) 8.7 kts
4:00 am S ( 176 deg ) 8.4 kts
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
4:16 am 10.1 kts S ( 186 deg true )

10 04 3:50 am S 7.8 9.7 4.9 8 5.7 - 29.88 -0.05 77.2 83.3 74.8 - - -
10 04 2:50 am SSE 7.8 9.7 4.9 9 6.0 - 29.89 -0.04 77.2 83.1 74.8 - - -
10 04 1:50 am S 9.7 11.7 4.6 8 5.8 - 29.91 -0.03 77.5 83.1 75.2 - - -
10 04 12:50 am S 9.7 11.7 4.9 8 5.6 - 29.93 -0.03 77.4 83.5 75.0 - - -
10 03 11:50 pm SSW 7.8 11.7 5.2 8 5.5 - 29.93 +0.00 76.8 83.5 75.2 - - -
10 03 10:50 pm SW 5.8 7.8 5.6 9 5.8 - 29.94 +0.04 75.0 83.3 73.9 - - -

[Vortex]

6Z GFS rolling in...


H+6

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

H+18

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

H+30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

H+54

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

H+96 meandering in the channel

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif


H+136 BOC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[N2FSU]

00z FSU MM5:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007100400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Shows a huge system centered near the tip of the Yuc at the end.

[wxman57]

It appears to be following the forecasts of the GFS/Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS (and even Canadian) in moving southwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba toward the NW Caribbean. Forget the BAM models, as they're clueless in the subtropics. GFDL has had a right bias all year, too. I don't expect an LLC to become well-defined until over the weekend when the disturbance moves southwest of Cuba. So don't hunt too hard for that elusive swirl today or tomorrow. Could become a TD by Saturday afternoon in the NW Caribbean, possibly not until Sunday near the NE Yucatan. GFS and ECMWF stall it briefly in the NE BoC next Tue/Wed then move it inland into the Yucatan. Seems reasonable. I don't see anything to pick it up and draw it northward at this time.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS

H+174 over SW Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

In other words Wxman

TD nearing yucatan with nothing to draw it north...Sounds like a non-event in your opnion???

**Enjoy your day off tommorrow and your weekend bike trip

[Dean4Storms]

06 NAM is more believable at this point to me. Showing a 1000mb large system albeit still somewhat disaorganized in the upper Keys moving westward, makes sense from the overall synoptics, climatology, e.t.c....

[cycloneye]

04/0645 UTC 24.2N 71.4W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Vortex]

looks good to me

[ronjon]

06Z NAM loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/model_s.shtml

[ronjon]

With a trough digging down by the middle of next week it's becoming increasing apparent that whatever is in the GOM and located just north of the Yucatan will be pulled N and NE. If the system manages to get into the BOC and drift south then it may just die there as it will be too far south to feel the effects of the trough. As usual it's all a matter of timing.

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

It appears to be following the forecasts of the GFS/Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS (and even Canadian) in moving southwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba toward the NW Caribbean. Forget the BAM models, as they're clueless in the subtropics. GFDL has had a right bias all year, too. I don't expect an LLC to become well-defined until over the weekend when the disturbance moves southwest of Cuba. So don't hunt too hard for that elusive swirl today or tomorrow. Could become a TD by Saturday afternoon in the NW Caribbean, possibly not until Sunday near the NE Yucatan. GFS and ECMWF stall it briefly in the NE BoC next Tue/Wed then move it inland into the Yucatan. Seems reasonable. I don't see anything to pick it up and draw it northward at this time.

Looks to me from surface obs and nightime visible imagery there is a broad low about 1011 -1012mb centered near 24N 72W. It actually looks like the system moving more to the South or SSE this morning. It also has an eliptical appearance with most of the convection to the south and east of the center. Very strong upper-level ridge to the west over the Central Bahamas, appears to still be causing some strong shear from the NNW, over the system.

[crownweather]

6Z GFS

H+174 over SW Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Hmmm....according to my calculations, if this system moves from the Yucatan at hour 162 to southwest Florida at hour 174, thats an average speed of 80 mph. I highly doubt this scenario.

[cycloneye]

That has to be another low that forms SW of Florida,because at 162 hours,92L is buried inside Yucatan.

[baygirl_1]

It appears to be following the forecasts of the GFS/Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS (and even Canadian) in moving southwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba toward the NW Caribbean. Forget the BAM models, as they're clueless in the subtropics. GFDL has had a right bias all year, too. I don't expect an LLC to become well-defined until over the weekend when the disturbance moves southwest of Cuba. So don't hunt too hard for that elusive swirl today or tomorrow. Could become a TD by Saturday afternoon in the NW Caribbean, possibly not until Sunday near the NE Yucatan. GFS and ECMWF stall it briefly in the NE BoC next Tue/Wed then move it inland into the Yucatan. Seems reasonable. I don't see anything to pick it up and draw it northward at this time.

I'm all for this thing not moving north. However, I remember Opal very well. So, I have a question: What about the cold front that is forecast to be moving through the Gulf Coast area (and the Gulf, or so it appears) next week? I was checking out another site and spotted the front: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_pre.html Would that affect this thing (IF it gets it's act together and IF it is where it's forecasted to be, N of Yucatan)?