INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[wxman57]

It appears to be following the forecasts of the GFS/Euro/UKMET/NOGAPS (and even Canadian) in moving southwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba toward the NW Caribbean. Forget the BAM models, as they're clueless in the subtropics. GFDL has had a right bias all year, too. I don't expect an LLC to become well-defined until over the weekend when the disturbance moves southwest of Cuba. So don't hunt too hard for that elusive swirl today or tomorrow. Could become a TD by Saturday afternoon in the NW Caribbean, possibly not until Sunday near the NE Yucatan. GFS and ECMWF stall it briefly in the NE BoC next Tue/Wed then move it inland into the Yucatan. Seems reasonable. I don't see anything to pick it up and draw it northward at this time.

I'm all for this thing not moving north. However, I remember Opal very well. So, I have a question: What about the cold front that is forecast to be moving through the Gulf Coast area (and the Gulf, or so it appears) next week? I was checking out another site and spotted the front: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_pre.html Would that affect this thing (IF it gets it's act together and IF it is where it's forecasted to be, N of Yucatan)?

I'm wary of any significant fronts forecast to make it into the Gulf given the strength of the ridge. Past forecasts of such frontal passages this season proved wrong. But if it did make it into the central Gulf and if the disturbance tracks farther west and is located 100-200 miles north of the Yucatan rather than in the NE BoC, then there would be a chance of a N-NE turn next Tue/Wed. Lots of "IFs".

[Normandy]

It has the appearance of a very large monsoonal trough just like those that form typhoons in the WPAC....very broad and disorganized.

Like Wxman57 said, might wanna check back on friday-saturday for this one to be named.

[HURAKAN]

[Typhoon_Willie]

May want to check out the area in between Cuba and Jamaica...

[hurricanetrack]

Maybe it won't develop at all. Only the CMC model really jumps on this as the other globals are weak and all over the place with broad low pressure- nothing focused. Perhaps it is just not in the cards for anything significant to get going with this system. In other words, why does it have to develop at all?

[mightyerick]

in average, i write my post in accordance with what SHIPS says...
and i gonna belive its "82 KT in 120 hours" statement

[Blown Away]

04/0645 UTC 24.2N 71.4W 1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

The models initialize at 26.1N/73.1W.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS

H+174 over SW Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Hmmm....according to my calculations, if this system moves from the Yucatan at hour 162 to southwest Florida at hour 174, thats an average speed of 80 mph. I highly doubt this scenario.

If you look at higher resolution data, you can see that the GFS moves the center inland into the southern Yucatan (SE from the BoC) and develops a frontal low over Florida. That's NOT 92L over Florida. But the GFS tends to over-forecast frontal movements this time of year. That front will likely be weaker.

[wxman57]

Just remember that the models initialize 92L with a vortex that has 25-30 kt winds already. But it won't likely have such a vortex for another 48-72 hours. It's just an area of thunderstorms today. Watch for a spin up in the NW Caribbean or Yucatan Channel Saturday afternoon.

[boca]

Any hope for beneficial rains in the Lake O is diminishing with 92L heading way south of us. We are in for a very long dry season and probably back to phase III or maybe even phase IV which would be taking a shower on odd days and even for those address's that corospond.

[cycloneye]

[bucman1]

Boca,

Don't give up on the rain for lake O yet this 92L may become a TC and move N/ NE ,one never knows you know that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

shakes head at saying 2007 season has been all bark and no bite

if we ever have a 1997... I will leave the board as the harping about a quiet season will be even worse than it currently is

The first six weeks of the 1997 season weren't that dull...

[mightyerick]

Any hope for beneficial rains in the Lake O is diminishing with 92L heading way south of us. We are in for a very long dry season and probably back to phase III or maybe even phase IV which would be taking a shower on odd days and even for those address's that corospond.

May be this drought related to La Niña?

[boca]

True Bucman1 but probably unlikely unless that troughs moves to the east coast and catches 92L before it gets too low in the latitudes to get picked up by the pending trough a week from today.

[Normandy]

May want to check out the area in between Cuba and Jamaica...

Might have to congratulate you on a good call....
I already believe that the area for development might already be shifting to the Caribbean (just over the eastern Cuba coast right now). Shear is becoming to high over the Bahamas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Big storm is right, if GFDL were right. 20 knot winds almost the entire GOMEX, 988 mb pressure, but only a moderate tropical storm because it is so spread out.

Looking at the SW Atlantic big picture, looks like the thunderstorms East of the Bahamas and South of Cuba aren't as to close to the center of the anticyclone as would be optimal.

Although strictly unofficial, I forecast slow, even painfully slow development, and then no idea where it goes. I do wonder why the Canadian turns it almost due North, however.

[boca]

92L keeps on rebuilding to the south no longer considered a Bahamas system. The title of the thread should be changed to Jamaica/Cuba thread. The way this pattern is it would hit Central America from the NE which is wierd to say the least especially with the usual westerlies that spread south normally this time of year, curve systems north or NE.

[cycloneye]

92L keeps on rebuilding to the south no longer considered a Bahamas system. The title of the thread should be changed to Jamaica/Cuba thread. The way this pattern is it would hit Central America from the NE which is wierd to say the least especially with the usual westerlies that spread south normally this time of year, curve systems north or NE.

For sure the title will have to be edited,but I prefer to wait for information from where the models iniciate their runs as well what NHC says in the TWOS.

[canes04]

The low is clearly east of the Bahamas at 26n 71w.
The convection is displaced to the south.
Give it time to develop, I still think it will move W or WSW.