INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

12z NAM Loop

Above is the 12z NAM run.Tracks thru the Florida straits towards north of Yucatan.

Off-Topic,what is that north of Puerto Rico? Ex Karen?

[Derek Ortt]

not sure if the NOAA flight was cancelled or not... I have not received the cancellation e-mail yet

[Chacor]

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED ON THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.

[Stormcenter]

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED ON THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.

As I said.....it's a dud for now.

[Stormcenter]

not sure if the NOAA flight was cancelled or not... I have not received the cancellation e-mail yet

No surprise it was cancelled.

[Steve H.]

Looks like several vortices swirling around the Bahamas now, with the strongest being the area just north of the wind-blown convection to the east of the central Bahamas. This one may be the main player by Saturday.

[Brent]

This area doesn't look impressive AT ALL today.

[Stormcenter]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog:

Disturbance 92L northeast of the Bahamas
Of greater concern is an area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 26N 73W, just northeast of the Bahama Islands. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a 200-mile long southeast-northwest oriented zone of converging winds just northeast of the Bahamas, but no surface circulation. Satellite loops show a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity that is not getting better organized. This disturbance is under about 15-30 knots of wind shear, and development today will be very slow. Wind shear is expected to fall to 10-15 knots beginning Friday afternoon, which may allow 92L to develop into a tropical depression as early as Saturday. The computer models expect a strong ridge of high pressure will force 92L slowly west-southwest over the Bahamas Friday and Saturday, then over the Florida Keys and western Cuba Saturday and Sunday. The storm will probably bring heavy rains to the western Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys beginning on Saturday. By Monday and Tuesday, the system is expected to be over the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and SHIPS models predict 92L will be a strong tropical storm with 55-65 mph winds on Tuesday. With an upper-level anticyclone with light wind shear expected to set up over the disturbance, the potential exists for a hurricane to form--if 92L can avoid the Yucatan.

The long term fate of the storm is highly uncertain. The GFS model predicts the ridge of high pressure ridge forcing it west will intensify, pushing 92L southwestward into Mexico. There is, however, a strong trough of low pressure expected to swing across the central U.S. next week and become a cut-off low. This system may be able to swing 92L northwards into the U.S. Gulf Coast, as the Canadian model is predicting. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon, but this flight was canceled and has been rescheduled for Friday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

Don't get me wrong I like his posts but come on now he needs
to tone down the drama concerning 92L.

[hiflyer]

not sure if the NOAA flight was cancelled or not... I have not received the cancellation e-mail yet

Only 4 NASA call signs flying right now...all T38's...two in California and two in Texas.

[eaglegirl]

Snippet from the FDEM/SERT Daily Status Briefing
For the Day of October 3, 2007
Reporting period: 0900 hrs 10/04/07 through 0900 hrs 10/05/07:

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N70W TO 27N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W TO 24N77W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 180 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE CUBA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 21N82W...FROM THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO JUST NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 13N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection being sheared to the south- appears to
be pushing the disturbance quickly SW.

I think this will get into the Caribbean by Saturday
and start developing there. There it may become
a depression sometime next week.

[Normandy]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog:

Disturbance 92L northeast of the Bahamas
Of greater concern is an area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 26N 73W, just northeast of the Bahama Islands. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a 200-mile long southeast-northwest oriented zone of converging winds just northeast of the Bahamas, but no surface circulation. Satellite loops show a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity that is not getting better organized. This disturbance is under about 15-30 knots of wind shear, and development today will be very slow. Wind shear is expected to fall to 10-15 knots beginning Friday afternoon, which may allow 92L to develop into a tropical depression as early as Saturday. The computer models expect a strong ridge of high pressure will force 92L slowly west-southwest over the Bahamas Friday and Saturday, then over the Florida Keys and western Cuba Saturday and Sunday. The storm will probably bring heavy rains to the western Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys beginning on Saturday. By Monday and Tuesday, the system is expected to be over the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and SHIPS models predict 92L will be a strong tropical storm with 55-65 mph winds on Tuesday. With an upper-level anticyclone with light wind shear expected to set up over the disturbance, the potential exists for a hurricane to form--if 92L can avoid the Yucatan.

The long term fate of the storm is highly uncertain. The GFS model predicts the ridge of high pressure ridge forcing it west will intensify, pushing 92L southwestward into Mexico. There is, however, a strong trough of low pressure expected to swing across the central U.S. next week and become a cut-off low. This system may be able to swing 92L northwards into the U.S. Gulf Coast, as the Canadian model is predicting. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon, but this flight was canceled and has been rescheduled for Friday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

Don't get me wrong I like his posts but come on now he needs
to tone down the drama concerning 92L.

You do realize buddy that if this develops AT ALL your credibility will drop significantly IMHO. You have been harping about climatology this, climatology that, its October and therefore no major hurricanes can form and hit the Gulf Coast (Which is baffling considering climo suggests that the GOM gets hit all the time in October). His post was not over dramatic, it was a analysis of 92L (and a very good one at that, I agree that the environment will be pretty good for this to deepen, look at the UL anticyclone). I'm all for opinions on this board, but if you really think this is a dud provide some meteorological reasoning (like Masters did).

[fci]

I see the same low coming into the picture from the east.
Based on the convection pick up today on the remnants of Karen, you may be right that what we are seeing in the model run are the remnants.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where do you all think this will develop, my eyes and loop
tell me the caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

But what do you think?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where do you all think this will develop, my eyes and loop
tell me the caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

But what do you think?

Thats My call..W Caribbean...Slow mover in and around the Yuc channel..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think GFS will show a shift South well into the caribbean
where it develops and then it goes NW through
the Yucatan and from there...it will be critical to know
where the trough is...
Looking at XTRAP- it shows that it is already being pushed
southwest by the ridge- a movement I expect to continue over
the next 2 days. I use the XTRAP for seeing the ridge's current
influence but I am NOT basing my forecast path off of XTRAP but
I am basing it off the ridge.

[cycloneye]

This post will be for the 12z GFS run.All the timeframes will be posted here.

12z GFS at 18 Hours

12z GFS at 30 Hours

12z GFs at 42 Hours Close to North coast of Cuba

12z GFs at 54 Hours Looks like the action shifts to Western Caribbean

12z GFS at 72 Hours After moving into the Western Caribbean,it moves thru Yucatan Channel to open GOM Waters.Now the important part comes in terms of the front grabbing it or not.

12z GFs at 84 Hours Stationary just north of Yucatan

12z GFS at 96 Hours Just NW of Yucatan

12z GFS at 114 Hours Still NW of Yucatan

12z GFS at 126 Hours In BOC

12z GFS at 144 Hours Buried in BOC

12z GFS at 156 Hours Is over

[Normandy]

I think its already starting to form in the Caribbean to be quite honest.....check out a visible loops and center it just NW of Jamaica.

[Stormcenter]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog:

Disturbance 92L northeast of the Bahamas
Of greater concern is an area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 26N 73W, just northeast of the Bahama Islands. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a 200-mile long southeast-northwest oriented zone of converging winds just northeast of the Bahamas, but no surface circulation. Satellite loops show a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity that is not getting better organized. This disturbance is under about 15-30 knots of wind shear, and development today will be very slow. Wind shear is expected to fall to 10-15 knots beginning Friday afternoon, which may allow 92L to develop into a tropical depression as early as Saturday. The computer models expect a strong ridge of high pressure will force 92L slowly west-southwest over the Bahamas Friday and Saturday, then over the Florida Keys and western Cuba Saturday and Sunday. The storm will probably bring heavy rains to the western Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys beginning on Saturday. By Monday and Tuesday, the system is expected to be over the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and SHIPS models predict 92L will be a strong tropical storm with 55-65 mph winds on Tuesday. With an upper-level anticyclone with light wind shear expected to set up over the disturbance, the potential exists for a hurricane to form--if 92L can avoid the Yucatan.

The long term fate of the storm is highly uncertain. The GFS model predicts the ridge of high pressure ridge forcing it west will intensify, pushing 92L southwestward into Mexico. There is, however, a strong trough of low pressure expected to swing across the central U.S. next week and become a cut-off low. This system may be able to swing 92L northwards into the U.S. Gulf Coast, as the Canadian model is predicting. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon, but this flight was canceled and has been rescheduled for Friday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

Don't get me wrong I like his posts but come on now he needs
to tone down the drama concerning 92L.

You do realize buddy that if this develops AT ALL your credibility will drop significantly IMHO. You have been harping about climatology this, climatology that, its October and therefore no major hurricanes can form and hit the Gulf Coast (Which is baffling considering climo suggests that the GOM gets hit all the time in October). His post was not over dramatic, it was a analysis of 92L (and a very good one at that, I agree that the environment will be pretty good for this to deepen, look at the UL anticyclone). I'm all for opinions on this board, but if you really think this is a dud provide some meteorological reasoning (like Masters did).

But Buddy I never said 92L wouldn't develop. All I said was that it was a dud "now" and is being over hyped by Masters. He like another private Met we won't mention by name hype up a lot of invests and disturbances. I've be tracking storms for many many years and there have been on many occasions when ALL of the conditions were ideal yet nothing formed as you claim 92L will have. As to the climo thing well it is what it is. The frenquency of hurricanes drops dramatically in October. Yeah you may sneak in another Hurricane or two in an average year but most of time they are out in the Atlantic and harm no one. I am talking about hurricanes that have directly affected the U.S. mainland in October. It just doesn't happen as often as you think.

[mightyerick]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! anxiety is killingme!!!!
If this thing is going to nowhere I like to see this thing totally dissipating right now. i can take it... i dont wanna wait for a whole week for NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!

anyways, SHIPS still gets it as a 82 KT hurricane.