2007: an inactive season?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We might get to the Greek alphabet this year
N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W, alpha

If we get 9 more named storms between now and december
thats 6 in october and 3 in november would make us go Greek.

[windlyweathergirl]

6 in October? That's rediculous!

and the Jet Stream comes down and crushes the Tropical Atlantic by late October, my friend Wilma knew all about that!

[americanrebel]

I say 5 in October, 3 in November and 1 in December.

That would make for 22 named and 1 unnamed for the season after all the post season analysis is done (TD 10 to unnamed storm).

[Category 5]

6 in October? That's rediculous!

and the Jet Stream comes down and crushes the Tropical Atlantic by late October, my friend Wilma knew all about that!

Last I checked, Wilma did ok, it didn't break any records or anything but it did alright.

Also, in october 2005 there were.... 6 storms.

[windlyweathergirl]

Our year...was just spectacular, I doubt there's going to be another one of those years like my year soon.

This season has been Too inactive for my likings. It would be neat to have another WWL-time storm in November, but it wouldn't go EAST to WEST in the caribbean in all likelyhood...

[Ptarmigan]

Exactly. In another thread, I did say that this season has been thankfull dull for the U.S. But that 2 Cat 5s that make landfall is anything but dull. Off the top of my head, I think that is an extrodinary event.

There should be a historical index score.

[JTD]

Our year...was just spectacular, I doubt there's going to be another one of those years like my year soon.

This season has been Too inactive for my likings. It would be neat to have another WWL-time storm in November, but it wouldn't go EAST to WEST in the caribbean in all likelyhood...

Inactive for the U.S. you mean right? Any season that gets to N and O as we seem destined to do at least this year counts as active in my books. Also, the rapid RI that Dean, Felix, Humberto and Lorenzo all experienced to varying degrees also makes this a very active season. I mean Humberto deepened at a rate that had never been observed before.

[Derek Ortt]

the seaosn has been very active for the USA as well

Andrea
Barry
Erin (TS that put 1/4 of Oklahoma under water
Gabrielle
Humberto
TD 10

[Category 5]

Our year...was just spectacular, I doubt there's going to be another one of those years like my year soon.

This season has been Too inactive for my likings. It would be neat to have another WWL-time storm in November, but it wouldn't go EAST to WEST in the caribbean in all likelyhood...

Theres that CONUS bias again.

[windlyweathergirl]

Andrea, Gabby and Lorenzo didn't even impact us...so they aren't factors all that much. Like in 2004 and 2005 half the storms affected us.

[americanrebel]

GAbby hit the edge of the Carolinas

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

6 is not ridiculous
1. la Nina
2. High heat content in the caribbean
3. stalling boundaries combined with la nina to
produce "jerry/chantal" type storms

Perhaps it's better if I say 4-6 named storms in October

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, it's been inactive for the USA. Even the weather channel was stating that. They even said that we've been EXTREMELY lucky that it's been this way....Very Very odd and calm for the USA the last 2 years, almost spooky...I'm sure our luck will run out next year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2007 has been very active for the USA with humberto and
erin barry td10 andrea gabrille and more

[ConvergenceZone]

2007 has been very active for the USA with humberto and
erin barry td10 andrea gabrille and more

not if you are talking about intensity it hasn't been an active season, that's what the weather channel was referring to....It's quality vrs quantity....

[gerrit]

Yeah right! 2007 was very inactive (until now). Just like 2006 and 2005 were very quiet.


Why?? No hurricane or tropical storm hit Puerto Rico..

[dtrain44]

Everyone's just talking past each other: if you define "active" on the basis of named storms/depressions as compared to climatology, 2007 cannot be called inactive, especially since we're only at October 4. If you're defining it in terms of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S., it's clearly inactive. Dean and Felix were terrible storms and made this the first year with two Category 5 landfalls. Sign of activity. Wicked shear crushing a number of potential storms....that happens at some point most years.

If we're precise in how we define activity, I suspect there would be almost no disagreement here.....

[Derek Ortt]

major hurricanes striking the USA is a very rare occurrance

Prior to Charley, the last major hurricane to make a direct hit on the USA was Lenny at St. Croix. WE WENT NEARLY 5 YEARS without having a major landfall

After Emily in 1993, we had to wait until Marilyn

After Hugo, nothing until Andrew (and Hugo was the first since Elena)

saying it is inactive because no majors have not made landfall is very flawed science

[yzerfan]

As someone who lives just north of the landfall site of TD 10, I'm not sure what the impact of that storm turned uot to be other than a couple of cancelled high school football games.

As for Felix and Dean, I wonder how different they would have been if the CONUS deflector shield hadn't been in place at the time. A more typical recurve, and you get more contact with the mountains of Jamaica/Hispanola/Cuba instead of the nice warm & flat Caribbean waters, and a tendency for wind speeds to drop in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and I see storms that could have caused a world of hurt, but that wouldn't have made landfall as cat 5s.

[dtrain44]

Derek, I don't know if that reply was directed to me, but all I meant is that a major not striking the US would mean an inactive season IF AND ONLY IF one's sole criterion of activity is major hurricanes striking the USA. I agree completely with you that this isn't a good standard, but if we want to have a debate over "activity", it's important to define what that means, as there are several different measures of activity that are good for various analytical purposes.....