INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[cycloneye]

[LaBreeze]

wimpy, wimpy, wimpy!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice LLC but not convection. So chances are going down that this will be a depression.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice LLC but not convection. So chances are going down that this will be a depression.

Hey, 12Z GFDL shows 20 knot winds on the coast and some places geeting almost an inch of rain, with landfall near Freeport (actually, a tiny strip of land near Freeport gets 2 inches of rain) in 36 hours.


So, Steve was almost right about this being a threat to Texas.


20 knot winds and almost an inch of rain would rock. Except it ruins Saturday as a beach day.

[Steve]

Heh. It's going to Texas bra. I told you that earlier in the week. But it's just not going to be anything much. As it stands now, it just rained in the city for about a half hour, and we got about an inch. There was some flooding on Gravier Street which always happens when you have an inch or more of rainfall. It feels really nice outside, just like a tropical day usually does. It's breezy, warm and rainy. I'm not complaining.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Heh. It's going to Texas bra. I told you that earlier in the week. But it's just not going to be anything much. As it stands now, it just rained in the city for about a half hour, and we got about an inch. There was some flooding on Gravier Street which always happens when you have an inch or more of rainfall. It feels really nice outside, just like a tropical day usually does. It's breezy, warm and rainy. I'm not complaining.

Steve

Totally anti-tropical here this morning. Chilly, some dew on the car, but crystal clear skies, with the stars and I think a planet visible slightly East of due overhead as I was leaving the domicile for work.


Haven't been outside since, but all I see is blue out the windows.

[Portastorm]

Ed and Steve ... didn't you guys bet on 90L? What happened to that?

I want to see some switched avatars by this weekend!!

[cycloneye]

365
WHXX01 KWBC 041815
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071004 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 1800 071005 0600 071005 1800 071006 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 91.2W 28.2N 92.8W 29.1N 94.6W 30.4N 96.2W
BAMD 27.6N 91.2W 28.1N 92.7W 28.9N 94.6W 30.4N 97.0W
BAMM 27.6N 91.2W 28.0N 92.7W 28.7N 94.7W 29.9N 96.8W
LBAR 27.6N 91.2W 28.3N 92.6W 29.4N 94.3W 30.8N 96.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800 071009 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 97.3W 38.2N 97.3W 44.4N 96.3W 44.5N 94.2W
BAMD 32.5N 99.5W 39.6N 103.9W 40.9N 103.1W 44.0N 89.9W
BAMM 31.4N 98.8W 37.3N 101.7W 41.6N 100.5W 43.5N 91.3W
LBAR 32.8N 97.3W 41.4N 96.0W 47.0N 84.4W 39.6N 72.3W
SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 37KTS 31KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 91.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 27.1N LONM12 = 89.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Kludge]

The "micro center" seems to now be moving due W or maybe a tad S of W in the last few frames. A path S of Galveston could mean a little more rain for Houston. Not a bad thing. The descriptions of the weather in "Bayou Country" today sound pretty nice...bring it west!!

[Yankeegirl]

I really wish this would bring us some rain!!!

[chadtm80]

365
WHXX01 KWBC 041815
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071004 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 1800 071005 0600 071005 1800 071006 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 91.2W 28.2N 92.8W 29.1N 94.6W 30.4N 96.2W
BAMD 27.6N 91.2W 28.1N 92.7W 28.9N 94.6W 30.4N 97.0W
BAMM 27.6N 91.2W 28.0N 92.7W 28.7N 94.7W 29.9N 96.8W
LBAR 27.6N 91.2W 28.3N 92.6W 29.4N 94.3W 30.8N 96.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800 071009 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 97.3W 38.2N 97.3W 44.4N 96.3W 44.5N 94.2W
BAMD 32.5N 99.5W 39.6N 103.9W 40.9N 103.1W 44.0N 89.9W
BAMM 31.4N 98.8W 37.3N 101.7W 41.6N 100.5W 43.5N 91.3W
LBAR 32.8N 97.3W 41.4N 96.0W 47.0N 84.4W 39.6N 72.3W
SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 37KTS 31KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 91.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 27.1N LONM12 = 89.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Model Map - http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

[Steve]

>>Ed and Steve ... didn't you guys bet on 90L? What happened to that?

The bet was if we had a formed entity (can't remember if we qualified it at (S)TD or (S)TS status), that it would or would not make it's way to the western Gulf Coast. I had Texas or Mexico. Ed had points farther eastward. I think he wins, because even if an ejected or rotating swirl makes its way to the Texas Coast, the actual center is probably going in SW LA. But unless we get whatever we bet on was to form, it becomes a moot point, and avatars will have to wait for our next friendly debate.

Steve

[wxman57]

The "micro center" seems to now be moving due W or maybe a tad S of W in the last few frames. A path S of Galveston could mean a little more rain for Houston. Not a bad thing. The descriptions of the weather in "Bayou Country" today sound pretty nice...bring it west!!

Step back and look at the bigger picture. The vortex you're tracking is rotating counter-clockwise around a much larger low. It's now rotating around to the NW side of that low, so it should start moving to the southwest then south. In contrast, the OTHER vortex on the NE side of the larger low may well reach SE Louisiana before the western vortex reaches TX. Could be two landfalls, one in SE LA and one in TX.

In the end, it doesn't really matter as there isn't much significant weather associated with either vortex.

[southerngale]

Heh. It's going to Texas bra. I told you that earlier in the week. But it's just not going to be anything much. As it stands now, it just rained in the city for about a half hour, and we got about an inch. There was some flooding on Gravier Street which always happens when you have an inch or more of rainfall. It feels really nice outside, just like a tropical day usually does. It's breezy, warm and rainy. I'm not complaining.

Steve

Totally anti-tropical here this morning. Chilly, some dew on the car, but crystal clear skies, with the stars and I think a planet visible slightly East of due overhead as I was leaving the domicile for work.


Haven't been outside since, but all I see is blue out the windows.

I see some blue, but plenty of clouds as well. You'd never know a naked swirl was headed in this direction.

[Steve]

>>I see some blue, but plenty of clouds as well. You'd never know a naked swirl was headed in this direction.

hahaha but if you run the visible loop, you can see the atmosphere moistening up a bit with puffy clouds. That's what it was here yesterday. So no matter what happens, you might still get in the regime of a tropical airmass with the potential for some bands even if the overall low is weakening en route. We've got a couple of nice bands lining up for later this afternoon:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

And as per LC radar, some of the rain has made its way past New Iberia. Don't count out a shot at .5" or anything.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Steve

[LaBreeze]

A naked swirl!! Oh my, draw the shades!! Seriously, nothing happening around here - a few clouds, a small breeze, humidity seems to be climbing however.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The swirl du jour is at
LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 91.2W

based on initialization.


That would be the swirl sin ropas.

[lrak]

this is my kind of TX hit

[cycloneye]

swirl sin ropas.

In english is swirl without clothes

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, on Shell's offshore oil platform 'Brutus' winds got up to almost gale force, granted, probably higher than the standard elevation




1008 mb, and judging by drop off in East winds, swirl just South of Brutus.