Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
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- hurricanetrack
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Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
Here is something to consider:
Why would things change now? The season, for the most part, has had weak systems outside of Dean and Felix which were obviously anomalies in the 2007 season. So what is going to happen that has not happened before? Upper level winds looked to be favorable, now they are not. Nothing has changed. A funk has taken over the Basin since Felix and that funk is keeping the systems firmly in check.
Ask yourselves this:
What is more likely to happen- the season will change in a day or so (even a few days from now) and a large, dangerous hurricane will suddenly take shape in the face of nothing but highly unfavorable conditions since Felix?
Or...
the season will contiue the way it has been since early September since that is the pattern that has locked in to place with no solid hints of it changing. And even when it looks like it might change, it does not.
Which scenario seems the most plausible at this point? Gotta go with the trend here, in my opinion, and face the fact that, for what ever reason, Dean and Felix were it. Something came along and pooped on the seasonal forecasts of CSU and NOAA. I know there are those who shake their heads at talk of 2007 being an inactive season. Since there is nothing to talk about in the Atlantic Basin this morning, let's take a really close look at why 2007 is not living up to its much hyped forecasts, dating back to last December:
For the most part, the forecasts from CSU and NOAA have called for a lot of named storms- with 15-17 being about the average total. They also predicted many hurricanes- perhaps 9. And we see where CSU predicted 5 major hurricnes in their May 31 update. I believe TSR also predicted an active hurricane season as well. Accuweather had said that the tracks would shift back to the west and forcus on the SE and GOM with FL in the middle of the "spray" as they call it. Their intensity forecast for impact on the U.S. was significant too. Basically, we were all expecting a major hurricane to hit the Uinted States this year. CSU gave it a 74% chance for the entire coast. That's a 22% higher chance than normal. The stage appeared to be set for another bad hurricane season for the United States and its surrounding land masses of the Basin. So what has been the reality since May 31?
Well....at least here we have some real data and not a computer model forecast. Data is great. All of this actually happened although post-season analysis can always change the data later. Here's what we have had so far:
Andrea- sub-tropical storm that formed in May from a strong cold front and upper level dynamics to get things started over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Exciting to see a pre-season storm like this. Some thought it meant the season was going to be a block buster.
Barry- weak tropical storm that made landfall as a depression, according to the public advisory at 11am, June 2. Some argued on this very board that Barry was not tropical in nature. But, since it was just a few weeks after Andrea, it too helped to fuel speculation that the 2007 season was going to be another one for the ages.
Chantal- end of July moderate tropical storm that formed from an area of low pressure and not a tropical wave and was short-lived as it travel north and became extra-tropical.
Dean- Perfect example of a long track, Cape Verde hurricane. Had people up in arms in TX and LA that it might come their way. Thought to usher in the start to a long and painful Cape Verde season. Afterall, Dean started just a few days earlier than the traditional August 15 start to the CV season. Dean was a spectacular hurricane and reached its full potential as it tracked well south of the United States- severely impacting those who it hit across the Caribbean and Central America/Mexico.
Erin- weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds that formed from an area of low pressure in the GOM not directly associated with a tropical wave. Did cause significant flooding in TX and was a big deal for that effect alone.
Felix- another perfect hurricane that also tracked well south of the United States. Never was any real doubt about its track and began to make us wonder, why are they all hitting so far south of the U.S.? Felix too had a major impact on the areas it hit- obviously.
Gabrielle- shown on the ECMWF as a big time hurricane heading right for the Carolinas. Looked to have all the makings of a nasty hurricane. Accuweather got all excited about it and JB gave a pressure prediction of 970 mb at landfall. The reality was a weak tropical storm, sheared most of its life and brought only limited rains to the Carolinas. Did have some wind gusts on the Outer Banks in the 50s, but that's about it. Models that led us to beleive early on that this would be a powerhouse hurricane changed their tune several days before landfall and Gabrielle was pretty much a non-event. Accuweather's 970 forecast was off by 30+ mb. But to their credit, early on, the ECMWF painted an ugly picture for the Carolinas and I for one bought it. What do I know?
Humberto- exceptional strengthening close to the Texas coast that made it the only hurricane to hit the U.S. since Wilma in October of 2005. Small hurricane with small area impacted- though people did suffer cat-1 damage and at least one life was lost. Still, Humberto was not what we really expected this season- a last minute, small hurricane tucked away in the NE Gulf. None the less, it was a hurricane and it did hit. Very little media coverage because it caught so many people off guard.
Ingrid- at this point, the TUTT was in place and the season went down hill in a hurry. Accuweather again went out and painted a picture showing a cat-2 hurricane coming up towards the SE Bahamas. The reality was that Ingrid was destroyed down to the nub by strong winds and it never recovered.
TD 10- never had a chance as it was weak, sub-tropical in nature for most of its life and caused evacuations of oil rigs in the GOM for some reason. That it formed from an upper level low over the warm GOM was amazing. It tracked west from the Atlantic and brought strong winds and some rain, with severe weather too, to portions of FL. TD 10 had a lot of us up all night looking at it since it had the potential, or so we thought, to become a hurricane and hit New Orleans on the dreaded WNW track. Not even close. A waste of time but lucky for those who live in New Orleans and nearby post-Katrina areas.
Jerry- non-tropical low that became a tropical storm over the sub-tropical Atlantic. Still, we saw these even in 2005, so no big deal- they happen every now and then. Surely it can't mean that the season is in a funk. Afterall, it was the end of September and no major hurricanes had come within 500 miles of the U.S. to this point. Both went in to Central America. We had a long way to go. October could be big!
Karen- had all the makings of a Floyd or Hugo or any other large Atlantic hurricane. Derek Ortt guaranteed it would become a hurricane (it's in a post somewhere) and it looks like it did for a few hours. Although, I do not think that is what Derek meant. The envelope of Karen and its overall look made us all think it would be a large and formidable hurricane. Not a 75 mph one for a few hours. The shear came and wiped Karen out although some could argue that its rotting remains are still festering near the NE Caribbean even today. We'll see...could be the ghost of Karen comes to visit later on...stay tuned. Point is- another "no go" event due to "unexpected shear" and overall upper level winds that looked more like a major El Nino than a strengthening La Nina. What was going on?
Lorenzo- another blob of convection that eventually developed and became a small hurricane at the last few hours before landfall. It did, unfortunately, kill several people, showing us that even small hurricanes have lethal consquences. Still, it was a Mexico landfall and never even looked like it might impact the U.S. We were looking really good so far- no major threats at all.
Melissa- an attempt by the Cape Verde wave machine to send one more tease out in to the Atlantic. Melissa was met quickly by strong opposing winds and was promptly rolled up. Accuweather was all upset (well, JB was) that it even got a name. There was even a thread on this board about naming too quickly by the NHC. It seemed that the sputtering hurricane season was beginning to get to us. Afterall, we are now at the very end of September and not one significant threat had presented itself to the U.S.
While all of these named storms took place, we also have had more invests than I can ever remember that turned out to be nothing. All the while, La Nina gets stronger and so does the shear in the Atlantic. CSU's October forecast comes out and it looks above average- considerably so.
And today, we have 90L, a dud. 91L, never going to make it to TS. 92L which was all the rage just 24 hours ago and now is not looking like much at all. Ex-Melissa which was probably a TD or TS off and on throughout the last several days. And we have the remains of Karen somewhere out there just waiting to make the comeback of all time! But nothing has happened to even remotely resemble what we THOUGHT the hurricane season would be like for the United States. I know we like to track hurricanes and see them all go out to sea. We also feel for those who were impacted by Dean and Felix. But the facts are there and are solid: this hurricane season is not what was forecast. Not yet. The storms have been a mix of weak, short lived, sub-tropical and sheared to death. Add to that the pile of dud invests that never got off the ground. I think the ACE to date speaks volumes too. Was this what you were expecting this season? Not hoping but EXPECTING based on the forecasts from CSU, NOAA, TSR and even the great Joe Bastardi? Let's be honest here. Who would have honestly thought back in June or even August 13 when Dean set the ball in motion (or so we thought) that a vast majority of the activity we have seen up to now has been unremarkable, small, short-lived and weak? I for one did not expect this. All the signs pointed to a season with lots of hurricanes and several intense ones. Something went awry and I do not see where that will change between now and December 1. Why? What would cause such a dramatic shift to where we THOUGHT we would be? Bottom line- we have seen 13 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 intense (very) hurricanes. But the details behind the 13 named storms are what is so important. Except for Dean and Felix, everything else, including Humberto and Lorenzo, has been small, weak and not up to par with what we expected this season. Even 1997 had Erika as a cat-3 hurricane in the deep tropics- east of the Lesser Antilles. We can't even get that this season when a decent La Nina is in place. I would say that the 2007 hurricane season has been far less than forecast and I think that the facts above support that. Any thoughts from you all are welcomed. But please, this is not a complaint so much as it is a reality check that the season really has not lived up to its forecasts.
Ok, time to go soak fingers in warm water...ouch.
Why would things change now? The season, for the most part, has had weak systems outside of Dean and Felix which were obviously anomalies in the 2007 season. So what is going to happen that has not happened before? Upper level winds looked to be favorable, now they are not. Nothing has changed. A funk has taken over the Basin since Felix and that funk is keeping the systems firmly in check.
Ask yourselves this:
What is more likely to happen- the season will change in a day or so (even a few days from now) and a large, dangerous hurricane will suddenly take shape in the face of nothing but highly unfavorable conditions since Felix?
Or...
the season will contiue the way it has been since early September since that is the pattern that has locked in to place with no solid hints of it changing. And even when it looks like it might change, it does not.
Which scenario seems the most plausible at this point? Gotta go with the trend here, in my opinion, and face the fact that, for what ever reason, Dean and Felix were it. Something came along and pooped on the seasonal forecasts of CSU and NOAA. I know there are those who shake their heads at talk of 2007 being an inactive season. Since there is nothing to talk about in the Atlantic Basin this morning, let's take a really close look at why 2007 is not living up to its much hyped forecasts, dating back to last December:
For the most part, the forecasts from CSU and NOAA have called for a lot of named storms- with 15-17 being about the average total. They also predicted many hurricanes- perhaps 9. And we see where CSU predicted 5 major hurricnes in their May 31 update. I believe TSR also predicted an active hurricane season as well. Accuweather had said that the tracks would shift back to the west and forcus on the SE and GOM with FL in the middle of the "spray" as they call it. Their intensity forecast for impact on the U.S. was significant too. Basically, we were all expecting a major hurricane to hit the Uinted States this year. CSU gave it a 74% chance for the entire coast. That's a 22% higher chance than normal. The stage appeared to be set for another bad hurricane season for the United States and its surrounding land masses of the Basin. So what has been the reality since May 31?
Well....at least here we have some real data and not a computer model forecast. Data is great. All of this actually happened although post-season analysis can always change the data later. Here's what we have had so far:
Andrea- sub-tropical storm that formed in May from a strong cold front and upper level dynamics to get things started over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Exciting to see a pre-season storm like this. Some thought it meant the season was going to be a block buster.
Barry- weak tropical storm that made landfall as a depression, according to the public advisory at 11am, June 2. Some argued on this very board that Barry was not tropical in nature. But, since it was just a few weeks after Andrea, it too helped to fuel speculation that the 2007 season was going to be another one for the ages.
Chantal- end of July moderate tropical storm that formed from an area of low pressure and not a tropical wave and was short-lived as it travel north and became extra-tropical.
Dean- Perfect example of a long track, Cape Verde hurricane. Had people up in arms in TX and LA that it might come their way. Thought to usher in the start to a long and painful Cape Verde season. Afterall, Dean started just a few days earlier than the traditional August 15 start to the CV season. Dean was a spectacular hurricane and reached its full potential as it tracked well south of the United States- severely impacting those who it hit across the Caribbean and Central America/Mexico.
Erin- weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds that formed from an area of low pressure in the GOM not directly associated with a tropical wave. Did cause significant flooding in TX and was a big deal for that effect alone.
Felix- another perfect hurricane that also tracked well south of the United States. Never was any real doubt about its track and began to make us wonder, why are they all hitting so far south of the U.S.? Felix too had a major impact on the areas it hit- obviously.
Gabrielle- shown on the ECMWF as a big time hurricane heading right for the Carolinas. Looked to have all the makings of a nasty hurricane. Accuweather got all excited about it and JB gave a pressure prediction of 970 mb at landfall. The reality was a weak tropical storm, sheared most of its life and brought only limited rains to the Carolinas. Did have some wind gusts on the Outer Banks in the 50s, but that's about it. Models that led us to beleive early on that this would be a powerhouse hurricane changed their tune several days before landfall and Gabrielle was pretty much a non-event. Accuweather's 970 forecast was off by 30+ mb. But to their credit, early on, the ECMWF painted an ugly picture for the Carolinas and I for one bought it. What do I know?
Humberto- exceptional strengthening close to the Texas coast that made it the only hurricane to hit the U.S. since Wilma in October of 2005. Small hurricane with small area impacted- though people did suffer cat-1 damage and at least one life was lost. Still, Humberto was not what we really expected this season- a last minute, small hurricane tucked away in the NE Gulf. None the less, it was a hurricane and it did hit. Very little media coverage because it caught so many people off guard.
Ingrid- at this point, the TUTT was in place and the season went down hill in a hurry. Accuweather again went out and painted a picture showing a cat-2 hurricane coming up towards the SE Bahamas. The reality was that Ingrid was destroyed down to the nub by strong winds and it never recovered.
TD 10- never had a chance as it was weak, sub-tropical in nature for most of its life and caused evacuations of oil rigs in the GOM for some reason. That it formed from an upper level low over the warm GOM was amazing. It tracked west from the Atlantic and brought strong winds and some rain, with severe weather too, to portions of FL. TD 10 had a lot of us up all night looking at it since it had the potential, or so we thought, to become a hurricane and hit New Orleans on the dreaded WNW track. Not even close. A waste of time but lucky for those who live in New Orleans and nearby post-Katrina areas.
Jerry- non-tropical low that became a tropical storm over the sub-tropical Atlantic. Still, we saw these even in 2005, so no big deal- they happen every now and then. Surely it can't mean that the season is in a funk. Afterall, it was the end of September and no major hurricanes had come within 500 miles of the U.S. to this point. Both went in to Central America. We had a long way to go. October could be big!
Karen- had all the makings of a Floyd or Hugo or any other large Atlantic hurricane. Derek Ortt guaranteed it would become a hurricane (it's in a post somewhere) and it looks like it did for a few hours. Although, I do not think that is what Derek meant. The envelope of Karen and its overall look made us all think it would be a large and formidable hurricane. Not a 75 mph one for a few hours. The shear came and wiped Karen out although some could argue that its rotting remains are still festering near the NE Caribbean even today. We'll see...could be the ghost of Karen comes to visit later on...stay tuned. Point is- another "no go" event due to "unexpected shear" and overall upper level winds that looked more like a major El Nino than a strengthening La Nina. What was going on?
Lorenzo- another blob of convection that eventually developed and became a small hurricane at the last few hours before landfall. It did, unfortunately, kill several people, showing us that even small hurricanes have lethal consquences. Still, it was a Mexico landfall and never even looked like it might impact the U.S. We were looking really good so far- no major threats at all.
Melissa- an attempt by the Cape Verde wave machine to send one more tease out in to the Atlantic. Melissa was met quickly by strong opposing winds and was promptly rolled up. Accuweather was all upset (well, JB was) that it even got a name. There was even a thread on this board about naming too quickly by the NHC. It seemed that the sputtering hurricane season was beginning to get to us. Afterall, we are now at the very end of September and not one significant threat had presented itself to the U.S.
While all of these named storms took place, we also have had more invests than I can ever remember that turned out to be nothing. All the while, La Nina gets stronger and so does the shear in the Atlantic. CSU's October forecast comes out and it looks above average- considerably so.
And today, we have 90L, a dud. 91L, never going to make it to TS. 92L which was all the rage just 24 hours ago and now is not looking like much at all. Ex-Melissa which was probably a TD or TS off and on throughout the last several days. And we have the remains of Karen somewhere out there just waiting to make the comeback of all time! But nothing has happened to even remotely resemble what we THOUGHT the hurricane season would be like for the United States. I know we like to track hurricanes and see them all go out to sea. We also feel for those who were impacted by Dean and Felix. But the facts are there and are solid: this hurricane season is not what was forecast. Not yet. The storms have been a mix of weak, short lived, sub-tropical and sheared to death. Add to that the pile of dud invests that never got off the ground. I think the ACE to date speaks volumes too. Was this what you were expecting this season? Not hoping but EXPECTING based on the forecasts from CSU, NOAA, TSR and even the great Joe Bastardi? Let's be honest here. Who would have honestly thought back in June or even August 13 when Dean set the ball in motion (or so we thought) that a vast majority of the activity we have seen up to now has been unremarkable, small, short-lived and weak? I for one did not expect this. All the signs pointed to a season with lots of hurricanes and several intense ones. Something went awry and I do not see where that will change between now and December 1. Why? What would cause such a dramatic shift to where we THOUGHT we would be? Bottom line- we have seen 13 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 intense (very) hurricanes. But the details behind the 13 named storms are what is so important. Except for Dean and Felix, everything else, including Humberto and Lorenzo, has been small, weak and not up to par with what we expected this season. Even 1997 had Erika as a cat-3 hurricane in the deep tropics- east of the Lesser Antilles. We can't even get that this season when a decent La Nina is in place. I would say that the 2007 hurricane season has been far less than forecast and I think that the facts above support that. Any thoughts from you all are welcomed. But please, this is not a complaint so much as it is a reality check that the season really has not lived up to its forecasts.
Ok, time to go soak fingers in warm water...ouch.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
excellent post, couldn't have said it better myself.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
Mark,a great post that has all in detailed order of events of what has been going on with the 2007 season.The question is why all the upper pattern turned upside down.Maybe the folks in the UK were correct about that 10 storm prediction due to the hot topic of this and future generations,GW,that they said causes less formations but more intense storms.I know that Jan will elaborate on this aspect as he knows a lot about the GW theme.I wonder if GW has something to do with what is going on.
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Very interesting post. I'd like to see some data before I agree with your use of destroyed invests as evidence: I don't know how many invests come about in a typical year or if we've had more or less than that this year. I also don't know that all invests are created alike. Still, very interesting stuff and I take no issue with the larger claim that there's no real reason to expect this pattern to change right now.
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Yes; this season definitely needs three land-striking Cat-5s in order to live up to expectations! 

If Melissa was named too quickly, then that cancels out Karen being TD'd and named too slowly. Melissa is still out there, btw.Melissa- an attempt by the Cape Verde wave machine to send one more tease out in to the Atlantic. Melissa was met quickly by strong opposing winds and was promptly rolled up. Accuweather was all upset (well, JB was) that it even got a name. There was even a thread on this board about naming too quickly by the NHC. It seemed that the sputtering hurricane season was beginning to get to us.
So? That leaves what, 33%-40% of the season left? Plenty of time left for some unholy monster like Mitch (Oct/Nov) to spin up and kill thousands of people.Afterall, we are now at the very end of September and not one significant threat had presented itself to the U.S.
Last edited by Honeyko on Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
DEAD WRONG Those cat5s formed off the base of the subtroical ridge, as it raced the systems into the caribbean. That super hot TCHP bombed these distrabances into cat5s. IF it was any where else or any other set up over the Atlantic they would of been sheared to death. Even 5 degree's north of where they where.
I agree with hurricanetrack, because we are behind normal for hurricanes and ACE level. We are more like the 70s and 80s in those levels. This year breaks the trend even with a la nina.
I agree with hurricanetrack, because we are behind normal for hurricanes and ACE level. We are more like the 70s and 80s in those levels. This year breaks the trend even with a la nina.
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Re:
Honeyko wrote:Yes; this season definitely needs three land-striking Cat-5s in order to live up to expectations!If Melissa was named too quickly, then that cancels out Karen being TD'd and named too slowly. Melissa is still out there, btw.Melissa- an attempt by the Cape Verde wave machine to send one more tease out in to the Atlantic. Melissa was met quickly by strong opposing winds and was promptly rolled up. Accuweather was all upset (well, JB was) that it even got a name. There was even a thread on this board about naming too quickly by the NHC. It seemed that the sputtering hurricane season was beginning to get to us.So? That leaves what, 33%-40% of the season left? Plenty of time left for some unholy monster like Mitch (Oct/Nov) to spin up and kill thousands of people.Afterall, we are now at the very end of September and not one significant threat had presented itself to the U.S.
Of course that could happen, but not likely this year. Less likely then 98 when Mitch formed. But hey its not impossible.
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
At any given point in the Atlantic at any given time during the hurricane season, conditions are hostile for a hurricane. -- That's why there aren't four or five every week.Those cat5s formed off the base of the subtroical ridge, as it raced the systems into the caribbean. That super hot TCHP bombed these distrabances into cat5s. IF it was any where else or any other set up over the Atlantic they would of been sheared to death. Even 5 degree's north of where they where.
Hunch: You're going to see a couple of endlessly plodding recurving cat-2s in about a week or two; they'll jack up the ACE as well as the count. We haven't had out West Caribbean blow up yet, either. Autumn is quite late arriving in the US, and polar sea-ice extent is at a record-low, so expect a lengthened season. This late arrival is retarding the southward migration of the equatorial heat-bulge, which is both capping the tropics as well as shearing it (blow-off from Amazon convection)...when it finally moves, then we get our "2nd peak" (normally Oct 10, IIRC).I agree with hurricanetrack, because we are behind normal for hurricanes and ACE level. We are more like the 70s and 80s in those levels. This year breaks the trend even with a la nina.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
With the caribbean water content being hot and explosive
it will fuel most likely a monster at some point this month
Hurricanetrack I think there will be one big one that we can storm
chase!!!!

Yesterdays model (don't remember which) had a tropical storm hitting FL
and then the Carolinas around october 10-15....
Now if that happens I get my video camera and go for a chase but
hopefully it is weak tropical storm so I don't get hurt LOL
it will fuel most likely a monster at some point this month
Hurricanetrack I think there will be one big one that we can storm
chase!!!!





Yesterdays model (don't remember which) had a tropical storm hitting FL
and then the Carolinas around october 10-15....
Now if that happens I get my video camera and go for a chase but
hopefully it is weak tropical storm so I don't get hurt LOL
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Some interesting stats:
W/WNW-tracking long-path major hurricanes traversing the Caribbean mostly over water (i,e, Georges doesn't count):
1950: 2 - Charlie, Dog
1951-1953: 0,0,0
1954: 1 - Hazel
1955: 2 - Hilda, Janet
1956-1957: 0,0
1958: 1 - Ella
1961: 1 - Anna
1962: 1 - Flora
1963: 0
1964: 1 - Cleo
1965: 0
1966: 1 - Inez
1967: 1 - Beulah
1968-1970: 0,0,0
1971: 1 - Edith
1972-1972: 0,0
1974: 2 - Carmen, Fifi
1975-1977: 0,0,0
1978: 1 - Greta
1979: 1 - David
1980: 1 - Allen
1981-1987: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0
1988: 2 - Gilbert, Joan
1989-2000: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
2001: 1 - Iris
2002-2003: 0,0
2004: 1 - Ivan
2005: 2 - Dennis, Emily
2006: 0
2007: 2 - Dean, Felix
The massive dead spot from 1981 to 2003 (Iris was a "late-bloomer") stands out markedly.
W/WNW-tracking long-path major hurricanes traversing the Caribbean mostly over water (i,e, Georges doesn't count):
1950: 2 - Charlie, Dog
1951-1953: 0,0,0
1954: 1 - Hazel
1955: 2 - Hilda, Janet
1956-1957: 0,0
1958: 1 - Ella
1961: 1 - Anna
1962: 1 - Flora
1963: 0
1964: 1 - Cleo
1965: 0
1966: 1 - Inez
1967: 1 - Beulah
1968-1970: 0,0,0
1971: 1 - Edith
1972-1972: 0,0
1974: 2 - Carmen, Fifi
1975-1977: 0,0,0
1978: 1 - Greta
1979: 1 - David
1980: 1 - Allen
1981-1987: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0
1988: 2 - Gilbert, Joan
1989-2000: 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
2001: 1 - Iris
2002-2003: 0,0
2004: 1 - Ivan
2005: 2 - Dennis, Emily
2006: 0
2007: 2 - Dean, Felix
The massive dead spot from 1981 to 2003 (Iris was a "late-bloomer") stands out markedly.
Last edited by Honeyko on Thu Oct 04, 2007 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Eh, I was hoping to get out of the habit of replying to these types of threads until the season was almost over. I really don't see the point in them except for the obvious posters who have an agenda and always want to be the first or will argue their positions to death because they can't control themselves (excluding those like Frank2 who have other agendas). But you put a lot of work into this, so I'm going to say a couple of things.
I laid most of my comments to Sannibel and Frank2 out in Frank2's thread noting where posters in June, July, August, and up to September 10th cancelled the season. I'm definitely not saying you are one of those posters, because I don't lump you in with them outside of the premise of this thread.
I also see where you being in North Carolina with a limited threat (1 brush) could put up the
(madface) on the season. But it's not been that way here on the Gulf Coast. There have been numerous systems (invests, tropical storms, depressions, etc.) that have threatened my area which is still a big deal after 2005. I've paid closer attention than I've wanted to much of this season. The threats were real although most have not materialized for my area outside of a few feeder bands to/from weaker systems. But I caution you that no matter what you say or what anyone else says, that if we end up with 16 or 17 named storms, the season exceeded the hype (although may have been somewhat in line with seasonal predictions). Let's face it. There have been numerous landfalls no matter what they were (weak TD to Cat 5). There will likely be a few more (upwards to 9 or 10). That's an insane season no matter how anyone slices it or downplays it. It's a big league landfalling season with 4 hurricane landfalls and 3 tropical storm landfalls to date.
Again, you guys can minimize that up in North Carolina where outside of Andrea and Gabrielle, it's been a big washout. Not so for those of us in the Gulf and especially for those who live in the Western Gulf. Let's don't forget that I'm not counting all the piled up wave energy that unloaded on Texas throughout the early summer months. That's all part of the tropics too. JMO
Steve
I laid most of my comments to Sannibel and Frank2 out in Frank2's thread noting where posters in June, July, August, and up to September 10th cancelled the season. I'm definitely not saying you are one of those posters, because I don't lump you in with them outside of the premise of this thread.
I also see where you being in North Carolina with a limited threat (1 brush) could put up the

Again, you guys can minimize that up in North Carolina where outside of Andrea and Gabrielle, it's been a big washout. Not so for those of us in the Gulf and especially for those who live in the Western Gulf. Let's don't forget that I'm not counting all the piled up wave energy that unloaded on Texas throughout the early summer months. That's all part of the tropics too. JMO
Steve
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- hurricanetrack
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Steve:
Good points overall. The Basin has been active and seen exceptional hurricanes in Dean and Felix. Other than those two, the season has been rather stuck in a short-lived, weak and small tropical cyclone pattern. Do you all see that? Humberto was small. Lorenzo was small. Ingrid was small. Other large systems fell apart post Felix mostly due to strong upper level winds. This is not what was expected this season- not from me anyway. Again, not complaining so much as pointing out what I thought was going to happen vs what has actually happened.
I do like your points about how even non-named tropical disturbances can cause issues. And, the anxiety of watching invest after invest or threats coming from well south that might head your way, over and over, can be trying. At least nothing has come to complete fruition like the potential for this season had suggested. There is still time and I am not rolling down the doors on the season just yet.
Good points overall. The Basin has been active and seen exceptional hurricanes in Dean and Felix. Other than those two, the season has been rather stuck in a short-lived, weak and small tropical cyclone pattern. Do you all see that? Humberto was small. Lorenzo was small. Ingrid was small. Other large systems fell apart post Felix mostly due to strong upper level winds. This is not what was expected this season- not from me anyway. Again, not complaining so much as pointing out what I thought was going to happen vs what has actually happened.
I do like your points about how even non-named tropical disturbances can cause issues. And, the anxiety of watching invest after invest or threats coming from well south that might head your way, over and over, can be trying. At least nothing has come to complete fruition like the potential for this season had suggested. There is still time and I am not rolling down the doors on the season just yet.
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
Thanks, Steve, for placing me in a completely separate category - some I work with would agree!
LOL
P.S. As mentioned yesterday, I have a 47-year relationship with hurricanes, otherwise, I wouldn't post on this site, however, the world has gotten so complicated since those early days in my relationship (the entire State of Florida had less than 5 million people at that time - probably even less during hurricane season), that it's become a serious problem when a major hurricane approaches this state, and, is why I'm not as eager to see one head this way, as I might have been 30 years ago...
P.P.S. Per what hurricanetrack mentioned - still, as each week passes, it becomes more likely that the current unfavorable weather pattern will remain for the remainder of the season. Reverting to a summer-type pattern in the Atlantic basin, when the early snows are already falling out west is very unlikely (per TWC, most of the country is forecast to cool down by early next week, for the first time since last Spring)...
LOL
P.S. As mentioned yesterday, I have a 47-year relationship with hurricanes, otherwise, I wouldn't post on this site, however, the world has gotten so complicated since those early days in my relationship (the entire State of Florida had less than 5 million people at that time - probably even less during hurricane season), that it's become a serious problem when a major hurricane approaches this state, and, is why I'm not as eager to see one head this way, as I might have been 30 years ago...
P.P.S. Per what hurricanetrack mentioned - still, as each week passes, it becomes more likely that the current unfavorable weather pattern will remain for the remainder of the season. Reverting to a summer-type pattern in the Atlantic basin, when the early snows are already falling out west is very unlikely (per TWC, most of the country is forecast to cool down by early next week, for the first time since last Spring)...
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NP Frank. No matter what, you are still the man. I appreciate your takes even when we disagree.
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Your response is valid hurricanetrack. The season has featured numerous small systems starting off as sheared entitites sometimes petering out and sometimes intensifying at landfall. That's kind of what you get in a big landfalling season where most of the development is close in. There will be some strong systems but lots of weaker small ones. It was the proverbial nature of the beast this year so far. We've still got a shot at 3 or 4 named storms (per Dr. Gray and observation), so we could get to 16, 17 or possibly even 18 storms before things shut down.
I haven't even posted about this yet, but I'm much more worried about 2008 and it's not even on the drawing board yet. But if we're heading from La Nina to weaker La Nina or La Neutral, there's a shot at a hyper season assuming we're not going straight to El Nino (probably not as the La Ninas - I think - generally run in the +/- 14-18 month range).
Then there's the added issue for Louisiana. We got hit a few times in 2002 (El Nino) and then again in 2005 (la neutral). Those seasons were 3 years apart. Now 2008 may not turn into anything for us, but I don't like the possible mini-cycle setting up in 3 year intervals. And while that's nothing but speculation, it still concerns me.
Steve
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Your response is valid hurricanetrack. The season has featured numerous small systems starting off as sheared entitites sometimes petering out and sometimes intensifying at landfall. That's kind of what you get in a big landfalling season where most of the development is close in. There will be some strong systems but lots of weaker small ones. It was the proverbial nature of the beast this year so far. We've still got a shot at 3 or 4 named storms (per Dr. Gray and observation), so we could get to 16, 17 or possibly even 18 storms before things shut down.
I haven't even posted about this yet, but I'm much more worried about 2008 and it's not even on the drawing board yet. But if we're heading from La Nina to weaker La Nina or La Neutral, there's a shot at a hyper season assuming we're not going straight to El Nino (probably not as the La Ninas - I think - generally run in the +/- 14-18 month range).

Then there's the added issue for Louisiana. We got hit a few times in 2002 (El Nino) and then again in 2005 (la neutral). Those seasons were 3 years apart. Now 2008 may not turn into anything for us, but I don't like the possible mini-cycle setting up in 3 year intervals. And while that's nothing but speculation, it still concerns me.
Steve
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- terstorm1012
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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
Frank and Steve, thanks for your comments (I essentially agree with what you both are saying).
I don't think this season is all that inactive. In fact the last FIVE seasons this one have been absolutely fascinating, starting off with Isabel in 2003 all the way up to now. And devastating. I think the 2005 blip has people "spoiled" in a sense.
I don't think this season is all that inactive. In fact the last FIVE seasons this one have been absolutely fascinating, starting off with Isabel in 2003 all the way up to now. And devastating. I think the 2005 blip has people "spoiled" in a sense.
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- AnnularCane
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Re:
Steve wrote:Then there's the added issue for Louisiana. We got hit a few times in 2002 (El Nino) and then again in 2005 (la neutral). Those seasons were 3 years apart. Now 2008 may not turn into anything for us, but I don't like the possible mini-cycle setting up in 3 year intervals. And while that's nothing but speculation, it still concerns me.
Steve
I don't think I would call it a cycle yet. Now if Louisiana gets hit in 2008, then you can worry about 2011.

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I think we should remember the golden rule of the tropics: Expect the unexpected.
With that said, I don't understand this board when ever something of excitement comes up (current 92L) and everything is fine, the very next day nobody cares because it's a little less impressive or it didn't do exactly what we thought? It's not like the whole system is gone now and the potential is 0. It's like that every time it seems. There is hardly any talk now about 92L even though it could become a hurricane down the road still and beyond. I don't think it has anything to do with "it's doing nothing right now" argument either.
92L which was all the rage just 24 hours ago and now is not looking like much at all.
With that said, I don't understand this board when ever something of excitement comes up (current 92L) and everything is fine, the very next day nobody cares because it's a little less impressive or it didn't do exactly what we thought? It's not like the whole system is gone now and the potential is 0. It's like that every time it seems. There is hardly any talk now about 92L even though it could become a hurricane down the road still and beyond. I don't think it has anything to do with "it's doing nothing right now" argument either.
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Re:
Ditto Melissa, which is still out there.Cyclenall wrote:I don't understand this board when ever something of excitement comes up (current 92L) and everything is fine, the very next day nobody cares because it's a little less impressive or it didn't do exactly what we thought? It's not like the whole system is gone now and the potential is 0. It's like that every time it seems. There is hardly any talk now about 92L even though it could become a hurricane down the road still and beyond.
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- hurricanetrack
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I think it is probably healthy to step away from the board for a day or two and not post every new satellite picture that comes in and every model run every six hours. Not healthy to do that for the entire life of every invest all season long.
I am concerned about some people who seem to be on here 20 hours out of the day. I think a Duke grad student could write a heck of a paper on the psychology of some of the folks on this board. This would include me!

I am concerned about some people who seem to be on here 20 hours out of the day. I think a Duke grad student could write a heck of a paper on the psychology of some of the folks on this board. This would include me!

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Re: Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations
I work 2 jobs and find time to be on this board especially hurricane season. During off season once a week if that.
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