2007: an inactive season?

[Derek Ortt]

an active season, IMO, qualifies as one of the following 2

More hurricanes than average or higher ACE than average

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes is a ave hurricane season.

We are 1.9 hurricane below avg. Maybe if karen gets upgraded we will only be .9 below. .3 below in major hurricanes.

Also avg ACE is around 90-100 points and we got 60.7 Ace. This is the part this season is weak in. The thing above we could get later this season.

[StormWarning1]

9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes is a ave hurricane season.

We are 1.9 hurricane below avg. Maybe if karen gets upgraded we will only be .9 below. .3 below in major hurricanes.

Also avg ACE is around 90-100 points and we got 60.7 Ace. This is the part this season is weak in. The thing above we could get later this season.

Thats the 'old' average. Research by Chris Landsea and others makes a strong case that at least three additional named storms between 1851 and 1965 should be included in the averages, and 1 more since 1965. This would yield and average of 12 named systems.
With Quicksat and constant real time satellite images the new totals are probably closer to
13 or 14 named systems.

[mightyerick]

Given the current tropical situation (every invest or TS getting sheared to dissipation), i dont think about a rising on the ACE values.

it should be classified as a inactive season, storms dont make more than 1.5 of ACE (excluding Dein and Felix). Quality, not quiantity.
Yawn, i am bored.

we got just four hurricanes... THAT IS NOTHING FOR A HYPERACTIVE SEASON!!!

It is octuber, the road down of the season.

[Category 5]

You have to look past the low ACE and the large number of short lived weak storms to see the terrible and historical things that have happened. Parts of Mexico were devestated by Dean, and Lorenzo added insult to injury. Parts of Central america were flattened by Felix which killed over 100 people. And as it stands, this is only the third Hurricane season with multiple Category 5's (1961, 2005, 2007, don't tell me I forgot 1960, Ethel was not a 5) And the ONLY one with multiple cat 5 landfalls.

Oh wait, I forgot that didn't happen in the CONUS, nevermind.

[gilbert88]

Oh wait, I forgot that didn't happen in the CONUS, nevermind.

Some people will never understand until their area gets nailed by a major. Nothing like first-hand experience to start strongly disliking hurricanes. All it took for me to stop wanting to experience a cyclone was Emily, and according to most people it wasn't even that bad.

And I don't really want to point at anyone, but a few people here (and I mean current active members) posted Katrina was a dud storm (because it weakened to Cat. 3 hours before landfall) before the first damage reports came out. So it's not even about CONUS or not-CONUS... it really has to be monster storms leveling cities to be "interesting".

[Category 5]

You have to look past the low ACE and the large number of short lived weak storms to see the terrible and historical things that have happened. Parts of Mexico were devestated by Dean, and Lorenzo added insult to injury. Parts of Central america were flattened by Felix which killed over 100 people. And as it stands, this is only the third Hurricane season with multiple Category 5's (1961, 2005, 2007, don't tell me I forgot 1960, Ethel was not a 5) And the ONLY one with multiple cat 5 landfalls.

Oh wait, I forgot that didn't happen in the CONUS, nevermind.

Some people will never understand until their area gets nailed by a major. Nothing like first-hand experience to start strongly disliking hurricanes. All it took for me to stop wanting to experience a cyclone was Emily, and according to most people it wasn't even that bad.

I understand it, and I've never been hit.

[Frank2]

With two Cat 5's, I would never say the season was inactive, but, just last evening, TWC showed this season's hurricane track map (so far), and, what really stood out were the tracks of the systems that dissipated - so many (relatively speaking), that it was very impressive...

The OCM also mentioned the ongoing strong shear across the tropics (despite La Nina), so, with all due respect to the handful of research and operational meteorologists that I knew who are still at the HRD or NHC (fewer all the time, sadly), it seems those in tropical meteorology need to go back to the drawing board to try to figure out what they do not understand about the current situation...

Personally, I'm greatful that this season (so far) has not seen anything head towards the U.S. - this country has enough problems to deal with as it is...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh wait, I forgot that didn't happen in the CONUS, nevermind.

Some people will never understand until their area gets nailed by a major. Nothing like first-hand experience to start strongly disliking hurricanes. All it took for me to stop wanting to experience a cyclone was Emily, and according to most people it wasn't even that bad.

And I don't really want to point at anyone, but a few people here (and I mean current active members) posted Katrina was a dud storm (because it weakened to Cat. 3 hours before landfall) before the first damage reports came out. So it's not even about CONUS or not-CONUS... it really has to be monster storms leveling cities to be "interesting".

I just like a weak tropical storm never anything that gets cities levelled.

[Frank2]

I agree with gilbert88 - it only takes first-hand experience with a hurricane to make you realize that it's always better when they don't come...

Sure, there's the "excitement" that comes with watching one form, but, we don't live in a perfect world, were hurricanes just stay out to sea and don't affect anyone (even those on a ship), but, we live in a world where hurricanes do sink ships, make landfall and cause loss of life and bring anxiety to millions on land, so...

Per what you mentioned about what some said, concerning Katrina (it's hard to comprehend why some people say what they say) - some in 1992 also made that "dud" statement about Hurricane Andrew, until everyone realized that no one had received any word from all of South Dade County...

If I had to describe today's younger generations, I'd say that today's younger generations (those younger than 30 or so), often seem not to realize what they are asking for - it's as if some want to see bad things happen.

A good example was the storm chaser who drove across a Gulf coast washed-out causeway during a 1980's landfalling hurricane - he was so eager to see a hurricane, that he almost died a foolish death. Even he (this is someone I knew while at the NHC), would later say, that after realizing what he almost did to himself, he (being someone who loved to see hurricanes to the extreme) decided never to do something as foolish as that ever again...

I know that many are on this site because they love the weather, love looking at it, talking about it, thinking about it, but, there's a limit - unlike a movie, the suffering severe weather brings to people and communities (and nations) is very real, and, often does not dissappear for many months, or even years...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree frank2 hurricanes are horrible but tropical storms that
are 40-50 mph are awesome

[Frank2]

I think, Tampa Bay, it also has to do with a change in the world in general - when I was a child (my first hurricane experience being in 1960), at that time, the entire Gulf coast, from Brownsville to Key West, only had two large cities, Houston and New Orleans, with only two smaller cities (Galveston and Tampa) - with the remainder of the Gulf coast largely rural, so, if a hurricane did make landfall, it was fairly easily, so to speak, to get out of the way.

As Dr. Steve Lyons (he being about my age) mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the change since then is very dramatic, and, is why a landfalling hurricane today, will cause a tremendous amount of trouble (we won't even discuss the oil and gas issue), compared to a hurricane of 40-50 years ago, so, while it might sound silly to say, there was a time when a landfalling hurricane could almost be considered a convenient thing, but, in today's world, it's isn't...

Even tornadoes are in the same category - I'm sure, 50 years ago, there were many unidentified tornadoes that swept across empty fields in tornado alley, and, mattered little to anyone, but, if the same happens today, many will be in their path, so...

P.S. I used to worry about getting older, but, now I'm glad that I was around, when I was around (from what I'm hearing, my long-time friends also feel the same way about their lives - they range in age from 56-93)...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good perspectives frank2


I'm 19 and a hurricane freak. When wilma went south
I went to saint pete beach and felt 50 mph gusts.

When frances came through I felt the 50 mph
gusts on my canal...It was fun to feel

And then Jeanne...too windy gusts 60 mph
too dangerous to go outside
but I watched from near my pool it was wild

And then barry 2007, because of the heavy rain i
watched from inside but the 40 mph gusts were
so awesome

Last year alberto 2006 was awesome with 45 mph gusts
I got to go outside on my canal and feel it and the wave
action was so awesome.

TD 10 was awesome too with the tropical storm force gusts.

[gatorcane]

this season is actually above normal. The long-term mean for storms in the Atlantic per season is 9. We are several storms above that.

But------besides Dean and Felix which were WAY south....and possibly Humberto....the Atlantic has been a big sheared mess. In fact some of the "storms" this season like Gabrielle hardly classify as a storm to me.....

We need to figure out what most of the Atlantic was so sheared this season...something does not add up.

[DanKellFla]

This is early, but I think the phrase to describe this season will be, "Active, but dull." Well, at least as far as the media thinks. Cat 5 Dean that made landfall "somewhere way south of Texas" got limited press. Felix was the same way. Humberto snuck up on everybody and there was no time for the typical media circus. (Good example why it is best to be prepared though.) Gabrielle skirted to coast and wasn't considered exciting enough to cover. Wasn't it the remnants of Erin that were a big story in Oklahoma? The big tropical story for the CONUS this season is in Oklahoma? And Barry just came through and rained in the wrong places as far as South Florida is concerned. (Nuts... more water restrictions.) Add to that the number of short lived storms and what we have here is a perception issue. As always, the NHC will publish its post-season summary where some storms get modified, but the media just seems bored with wind/rain events.

[benny]

I just posted this in the other thread that is exactly like this one (we only need one 2007 is dead thread)

I have to agree with those that think 2007 is only average and has really been a slow year in many respects. I think expectations were raised because of a forecast La Nina (which happened!) and all the high seasonal forecast numbers. Facts to consider:

1) ACE value is lower so far than 2006 (who would have thought that!)
2) Although there were 8 storms in September, there were the fewest number of hurricane days in the month since 1994.
3) Lowest ACE in September since 1997
4) There is a massive gap in the tracks north of 17.5n east of 70w. Can anyone say higher than expected shear?!?
5) We got a ton of storms, but the same number of hurricanes as 2006 but actually less hurricane days. bizarre. who would have forecast this year to be quieter than last?
6) A moderate La Nina formed during the season. This traditionally supports a fair amount of hurricanes. Yet...???

Unless we get an October monster or two, this year will probably go down as a major forecast failure. As best I can tell, the cool tropical Atlantic had something to do with it. I'm really a little jaded with the whole seasonal forecasting business. A quick recap:

2004- most everyone (seasonal forecasters) expected a near average year due to a developing El Nino. Result: monster year
2005- most everyone expected a near record year due to ridiculously warm Atlantic SST's. Result: mega monster year
2006- most everyone expected an above average year as the El Nino wouldn't be very strong. Result: junky year
2007- most everyone expected an above average year due to La Nina. Result: average year

sigh. oh well.