INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

BOC.

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
On the visible, it looks like a mostly exposed broad circulation with sheared convection on the S and SE side.

[Cyclenall]

Also, I wonder what the people who run the Canadian model think about all of the poo that we throw at it? Poor CMC admins.

They most likely don't like it if they're reading it, and I don't like it either. The Canadian model wasn't meant for the tropics anyways I believe. I forget why it's used but I guess it's for everything too.

They didn't design the model to be a tropical model. It develops every upper-level feature into a hurricane. Maybe it works well in Canada, but it shouldn't be used in the tropics.

100% true.

[Sanibel]

I assume 26N-73W is another spent vortex.

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's why the Canadians should keep to the cold weather and leave the tropics to us. CMC

[cycloneye]

18z NAM Loop

For those who follow the NAM,here is the 18z run.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I know is the weather will be nice here in S. Fl this weekend. The High is pushing the convection south so will have a minimal chance of rain.

[cycloneye]

This post will be for the all timeframes of the 18z GFS run.

18z GFS at 18 Hours

18z GFS at 30 Hours

18z GFS at 42 Hours

18z GFS at 54 Hours Just off SW coast of Cuba

18z GFS at 72 Hours Stationary just off SW coast of Cuba (That is new from past runs)

18z GFS at 84 Hours Almost Stationary Just SW of Cuba (In past runs it was stationary just north of Yucatan)

18z GFS at 96 Hours It moves to just north of Yucatan

18z GFS at 114 Hours Moving slowly away from Yucatan into SGOM.

18z GFS at 126 Hours Still moving very slow NW of Yucatan

18z GFS at 138 Hours Moves slowly west getting a little more close to Mexican coast

18z GFS at 150 Hours In BOC

18z GFs at 168 Hours Is over

My comment about the run is the only thing new is it becomes stationary just SW of the coast of Cuba.Nothing spectacular as a whole.Misses the front.

Any comments about this run?

[robert_88]

If this track pans out then the GFS once again does a great job. It showed a hit into Mexico with it's first run with 92L. The NHC has put alot of faith and use with their official track this year with the GFS.

[jlauderdal]

All I know is the weather will be nice here in S. Fl this weekend. The High is pushing the convection south so will have a minimal chance of rain.

NWS would disagree with you, i hope you are right.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2007

DISCUSSION
A WEAK CLOUD SWIRL LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF NASSAU WILL POSSIBLY TURN INTO A LOW AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST ATTM. THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SATURDAY
AND TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN LATE SUNDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS SEEN WILL BE EAST AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF.
HAVE STAYED ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY DUE TO MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST (60%) AND WENT WITH THE NUMBERS
SATURDAY (AGAIN 60%). FOR SUNDAY LEFT IN 50% WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO HIGH THEN FOR NEXT WEEK THE POPS RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL LEVEL.
THE GFS40 AND ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW BUT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE 12Z RUN IS THERE ISN'T A RETURN OF
A TROUGH NORTHWARD AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND THE MEAN LAYER MOISTURE IS DRIER. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE
EARLIER RUNS WHICH LEFT PWAT'S ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE 12Z RUN NOW
DROPS THE PWAT'S SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW 2 INCHES BY MONDAY WHICH GOES
ALONG WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS NEXT WEEK.

[Recurve]

Everybody has made good points, helping make this clearer. Convection being blown s or sw, still a broad trough, multiple eddies but no dominant surface low. Models indicating a WSW track. Watching but not expecting sooner development.

Outlooks sound fairly calm for SFLA. Could be wet and a little windy Saturday if we get the convection bank, could be too far away.
I'll never relax with anything out east though and a strong ridge. LBS and 92 #1.
Seasons do seem to be changing later in a lot of places.

[Recurve]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php?&forecast=plotsystemmodels&storms=&usemap=AUTO2&zoom=1&pn=1&alt=tropinvestmap&region=NT&year=2007&eventnum=92&hwvstormid=&size=

Wow, excellent chart. Thanks Chad. Great to be able to zoom in and see the data. You da cartographic man.

Models concern me a bit, close to Keys as a TD on the reliable models. Course the GFDL had Katrina hitting me square on as a Cat 5 at a similar point, glad that didn't pan out.
Just trying to decide whether to sign up for committee boat duty for a regatta on Saturday in Buttonwood Sound. Looks like maybe not based on the current forecasts.

[robbielyn]

SHEAR HAS NOT DOMINATED ALL SEASON. Posts (like some in this thread) that state that shear ahs been dominant are incredibly frustrating to read as they convey utter misinformation

How can you say shear hasn't dominated all season? Shear has destroyed every storm below 15 degrees except humberto. Strong westerlies have sheared alot of these storms so please explain what you mean. The longevity of potential waves have been severely limited due to shear. So I sure don't get how you can say that.

[cycloneye]

18z UKMET



The 18z UKMET shows a broad low pressure streching from the Florida straits to the western Caribbean.

WHXX04 KWBC 042325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.1 72.8 185./ 5.0
6 25.2 73.8 274./ 9.1
12 25.0 75.1 261./12.0
18 24.9 76.6 266./13.9
24 24.5 78.1 257./13.8
30 24.1 79.2 250./11.1
36 23.9 80.0 256./ 7.6
42 23.7 81.3 263./11.4
48 23.4 82.1 249./ 8.3
54 23.0 83.7 257./14.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

The 18z GFDL dissipates 92L in 54 hours.

[Tropics Guy]

I agree that shear has dominated most of the season, with the exception of the extreme lower latitudes (Dean & Felix), Tutt lows, ULL's & westerly shear are killing everything in site, and if it keeps up the season is rapidly coming to a close as far as any significant development is concerned.

TG

[chadtm80]

Wow, excellent chart. Thanks Chad. Great to be able to zoom in and see the data. You da cartographic man.

Thanks you can find all the info on the new tropical center here. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98469

[Recurve]

Yeah, but Oct 4 ain't close to the close, esp. for some parts of the basin. no matter how much shear there's been.

But the point is seasons have had less activity due to more prevalent, widespread shear. (Anyone with the knowledge of the pros here says something about history and climatology, I believe them, believe me.)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERING THE
W ATLC W OF 71W AND EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS E TO 22N60W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N55W W ALONG
28N61W TO 26N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE S OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 26 TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

If you want to see some tropical activity from this,after reading the discussion,your thinking about that goes down very fast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think best chances of development from this (as wxman57 said earlier) will be coming this weekend or early next week. Likely no chance at significant development or organization until then. We do not want to write this off though, because it looks like future conditions will be much better than what TD10 and 90L faced once it reaches the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM area.