Facing the facts: 2007 season not living up to expectations

[T'Bonz]

First, the season isn't quite over, although the fat lady is tuning up.

But I agree with the article. We were told "Active season!" and hints were that it would be for the U.S.

Now I'm not complaining that nothing hit us. Au contraire. After Wilma, who needs another hurricane?

But I curious as to why they weren't able to predict the high shear levels that we've for a good chunk of the active season, that has destroyed storms trying to form, unless they went way south.

Again, no complaints, but how could they all be so wrong?

Obviously, if something changes by end of hurricane season, I'll have to eat these words, but this season is much quieter than expected.

Now stay that way!

[StormWarning1]

The 2007 season, at least so far, is a close copy of 1931. Nothing North of 20N and East of 94W above tropical strom status. 1931 did not have any hurricanes in the far Western Gulf but did have a Dean carbon copy into the Yucatan and a hurricane in PR.
The only other years without hurricane activity since 1900 North of 20 degrees latitude were 1914 and 1907.
If 2007 continues to look like 1931, expect no more hurricanes the rest of the season.
Here is the 1931 season.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1931.asp

[Category 5]

It's nice to see one of these threads filled with details and facts instead of generalzations for a change.

Nicely put together Mark.

[Sanibel]

Dean and Felix could very easily have been disasters for the US. So the higher than normal probability for a US landfall prediction should not be criticized too harshly since a mild tweek of the ridge would have sent those monsters crashing into the US where they would have been MUCH bigger stories than they were in Latin America. Once those two got rolling there wasn't going to be any shear in the way had they headed into the Gulf. The ridge was the wildcard. The prediction was right on except for that one outlier factor.

As far as the rest of the season I would say we are stuck between a Nina that may well still turn on and have an unusual end to the season and the persisting shear pattern. No way to say.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropics about to explode with monsoon
trough in the caribbean and favorable ridge
on top of the caribbean plus puerto rico area

Monsoon trough like in 2005 + high heat content similar
to October 2005 + Favorable conditions with building
ridge = A WILMA sometime before halloween.

[Ptarmigan]

Tropics about to explode with monsoon
trough in the caribbean and favorable ridge
on top of the caribbean plus puerto rico area

Monsoon trough like in 2005 + high heat content similar
to October 2005 + Favorable conditions with building
ridge = A WILMA sometime before halloween.

I am a firm believer that monsoon trough plays a huge role in tropical cyclone formation. It would explain why EPAC and SIND are very active. That would partially explain why 2005 was active, especially 2005.

[hurricanetrack]

I am a card carrying member of the "I will believe it when I see it club" now. After so many "This is it- " and "this could be big trouble for ...." and blah blah blah, well, I will believe it when I see it. And even then, I might not believe it. So I will have to go there in person- which would be cool since THAT IS PART OF MY JOB.

So, in that regard, I hope you're right about this monsoon trough thing. I don't know much about it...

[Category 5]

"I will believe it when I see it club"

Where do I sign up?

[Brent]

"I will believe it when I see it club"

Where do I sign up?

Me too. You've probably noticed I am not posting nearly as much about the tropics, and this is why. Too many non-events. Look at 92L now... everyone thought it would develop and be a big storm and it looks like it may not do a thing now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Me too. You've probably noticed I am not posting nearly as much about the tropics, and this is why. Too many non-events. Look at 92L now... everyone thought it would develop and be a big storm and it looks like it may not do a thing now.

I'm just curious - if the tropics are uninteresting, why do you post infrequently about other meteorological events? I don't see you in the winter/United States weather threads on a regular basis during the tropical "down times". Severe weather is a good commodity right now, in my opinion. Personally, do you think the tropics are more "enjoyable" than other weather-related events? I do recognize that this board is primarily oriented toward the tropics, but other subjects could receive more attention.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is 2007 is a dud season? Well, two Cat 5s making landfall, says for Central America, not at all, but seeing how a naked swirl travelled the entire Gulf, and finally fired a few storms right before landfall, or how 92L looked so good 2 days ago, outside of the extreme deep tropics, down between 10 and 15ºN, the tropics have been rather sedate.

Of course, if people in the Golden Triangle region of Texas, or the people that lost homes around Poza Rica, MX, wanted to argue the point, they sure could. Jamaica didn't have it easy, either. Or Honduras.


On the other hand, less exciting seasons for us mean good things for most people, and if whatever becomes of 92L pulls a Mitch repeat, and kills thousands, any thoughts about a slow season will provoke feelings of guilt among reasonable people.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Me too. You've probably noticed I am not posting nearly as much about the tropics, and this is why. Too many non-events. Look at 92L now... everyone thought it would develop and be a big storm and it looks like it may not do a thing now.

I'm just curious - if the tropics are uninteresting, why do you post infrequently about other meteorological events? I don't see you in the winter/United States weather threads on a regular basis during the tropical "down times". Severe weather is a good commodity right now, in my opinion. Personally, do you think the tropics are more "enjoyable" than other weather-related events? I do recognize that this board is primarily oriented toward the tropics, but other subjects could receive more attention.

OK, speaking for nobody but myself, any time a model shows precip and either the 540 dm thickness or the 850 mb freezing line near my house, or the two "magic lines" separate, but the 850 line w/i 100 miles of my house, I'll be posting.



This is my first season.


I also like to check the AccuWeather WRF PPV pages, total totals, SWEAT index, CAPE, helicity. I post on a couple of political blogs (mainly, Little Green Footballs, sometimes called 'neocon', sometimes called 'Zionist', I call patriotic, and I am a veteran), and while I focus on Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New York area (family and or past residence), I have pointed out, a couple of times, isolated severe weather episodes outside SPC risk or 'see text' areas. Well, nothing super-extraordinary, but I have predicted expansion of SPC risk areas before the updated SWODY1 based on 6Z and 12Z runs and radar/satellite imagery.

I have also posted my opinion that a tornado was forming, on the blogs, several minutes before official warnings, as often as not, based on shape from reflectivity, not velocity.


So I can stay excited all year long.

[Steve]

>>sometimes called 'neocon', sometimes called 'Zionist'



You right wingers need to get back to country clubbing and libertarianism and get away from being pawns of the Israelis and religions.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>sometimes called 'neocon', sometimes called 'Zionist'



You right wingers need to get back to country clubbing and libertarianism and get away from being pawns of the Israelis and religions.

Steve

Raised Catholic, but part Austro-Hungarian Jewish. I eat bacon cheeseburgers, but know what 'treyf' means.



Old Joan Rivers schtick "Our Lady of Perpetual Guilt"...

[hurricanetrack]

Uh....what?

[Category 5]

What did any of that have to do with the 2007 Hurricane season?

[americanrebel]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Looking at the Caribbean WV loop, looks like there are many possible investments. One coming off of South America. One by Cuba. One maybe two by Florida. Two in the Central Atlantic. If only 2 or 3 of these do something we might have a busy last couple months of the Tropical Season.

[robert_88]

Uh....what?

lol. Got to love this board. Great post Mark. I couldn't of said it any better the way you put all your facts and info together so far this 2007 season. I have been tracking storms for 24 years and this season to me has been nothing more than all bark no bite except for ofcourse Dean, Felix, and Humberto (because of the surprising RI that unfolded) The rest were zzzzzzzzzz. No exciting tracks with sudden unexpected changes(in intensity or track) to really keep anyone on their toes and guessing is quite frankly....BORING. (especially to someone like me that has tracked storms since 1983) I have been blessed to have seen alot of hurricane seasons more interesting and exciting than the 2007 season to this point. Hurricanes have been around since the beginning of time and will be til the end. The formation and tracks of hurricanes to me are one of the most fascinating things on this planet. Anyone that lives near the coast is going to get hit by one someday in the future. And yes.... I have the deepest respect and sympathy to those who have lost their lives, houses, etc. because of these storms. I have also become a proud memeber of the "I will believe it when I see it club" in 2007. (since mid September)

[hurricanetrack]

And as we look out there today- more "invests" popping up while others get dropped. 90L turned out to be nothing though at least it never had a chance and so we wasted very little time worrying about it.

And 92L? Gone. I remember reading a post from Derek about it that it could be a large, typhoon-like hurricane if it were to develop. But look, it's gone now. In its place, 94L with little to no future ahead of it.

In fact, looking at the wide shot of the entire Basin, it's a huge string of mess stretched from the Caribbean out in to the far corners of the NE Atlantic. Nothing looks to be developing in any of the global models to hang our hats on. The ONLY thing that might be worthy of naming is ANOTHER sub-tropical sysem way out by the Azores.

And for those who think I have said the season has been inactive, you are wrong. It has been active- but I can assure you that what we are seeing is NOT what the forecasts were indicating from CSU and NOAA. If this is what they were thinking would have happened up to this point, then their forecasts would have indicated as such. Instead, there have been two significant hurricanes (Dean and Felix) while everything else has been small, weak, sheared and/or short lived. And that's just the ones that got names. How many "invests" have we had that amounted to nothing? I lost count. Another way to look at it- how many times have we gone through the entire 90-99L "list" since June 1. If you can answer that and compare that number to the number of actual named storms then you'll see my point.

[Recurve]

But that's typical. Most waves don't develop. Most invests don't become Cat 5s. Most tropical storms don't rapidy intensify.

We are halfway through the alphabet.

The season's forecast could be exactly right, but if we don't have major hurricanes heading toward the U.S. coast to get the board's adrennaline pumping and excited posts 24/7, then some of us are bound to be disappointed. cycloneye started a thread about less "euphoria" over invests. That's the effect of the monumental 2004 and 2005 seasons.

I'd guess that many coastal residents in the US will go an average of 10+ years between being in the 3-day cone of a major. To have hurricane warnings posted for a Cat 4 or 5 might take 100 years in some places, and 50 years in more likely areas.

On one of the most hurricane-prone coasts of the U.S., we haven't had a major hit since 1965. Still, two of the three category 5s US landfalls were 25 miles either side of here.

Older folks have to remind themseleves that the young have only seen the most amazing hurricane seasons in a century. If this season were typical, many parts of the coast would be much less developed than they are. If 2004 and '05 were typical, we we'd have 10-15 million fewer people in Florida.