INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[boca]

Sure does look like a LLC on the visible. If so it's a good 300 miles SE of where the models initialize. I bet we are in for a big change in model tracks if that is a new LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

You just beat me to it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I'm thinking like gatorcane and -removed- this mess over S FL to fill the Lake.

[caneman]

Well this is interesting. This is from the 8:00 TWD:

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OR ON TOP OF
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[caneman]

Based on the above we need to be looking around 25 and 82

[wxman57]

In a data-rich environment like the Caribbean or Bahamas, surface obs are the best way to locate a potential development area. Surface observations indicate lowest pressures are south of Cuba near the Grand Cayman Islands this morning (1009mb) vs. 1011-1014mb in the eastern Bahamas. I'm looking at 18.2N/81.8W. Obs don't show anything near 22N/68W but anticyclonic turning. Could be a mid or upper-level feature there, though. Buoy in NW Caribbean near 20N/85W has a north wind. Winds near Jamaica are ESE. The NW Caribbean is the place to watch over the next 2 days. Nothing today, though.

Crosshairs indicate the area of cyclonic turning and lowest surface pressure.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the wide shot of the Basin, there is certainly a more pronounced spin right in the middle of 65-70 and 20-25 with increasing convection feeding in from the south. Perhaps none of the models really "knew" where to develop the low and this will end up being it. Sure looks vigorous on satellite animations. Much more so than those nude swirls spinning around yesterday.

[hurricanetrack]

Surface observations indicate lowest pressures are south of Cuba near the Grand Cayman Islands this morning (1009mb) vs. 1011-1014mb in the eastern Bahamas. Obs don't show anything near 22N/68W but ESE winds and 1011mb pressures. Buoy in NW Caribbean near 20N/85W has a north wind. Winds near Jamaica are ESE. The NW Caribbean is the place to watch over the next 2 days. Nothing today, though.

So there is or is not a low pressure area developing in the area due east of the SE Bahamas and north of PR and DR? It sure looks like a low pressure area to me.

[canes04]

wxman57,

Please comment on area north of PR.
Looks to me something is trying to organize around 22n and 68w.

[boca]

So overall the initization was wrong but the outcome is the same which buries 92L towards the Yucatan and BOC. Their is quite a spin out there. We have a 70% chance of rain, I don't see that happening since this will traverse well south of S FL.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the wide shot of the Basin, there is certainly a more pronounced spin right in the middle of 65-70 and 20-25 with increasing convection feeding in from the south. Perhaps none of the models really "knew" where to develop the low and this will end up being it. Sure looks vigorous on satellite animations. Much more so than those nude swirls spinning around yesterday.

The models tend to spin up storms anywhere there is a broad low.Nothing unusual about that.The local mets are talking about that naked swirl possibly turning into something. They know no better. I wish Oleeta on Fox7 Weather was a naked swirl. Anyways have to wait and see if it forms in that area.

[wxman57]

Surface observations indicate lowest pressures are south of Cuba near the Grand Cayman Islands this morning (1009mb) vs. 1011-1014mb in the eastern Bahamas. Obs don't show anything near 22N/68W but ESE winds and 1011mb pressures. Buoy in NW Caribbean near 20N/85W has a north wind. Winds near Jamaica are ESE. The NW Caribbean is the place to watch over the next 2 days. Nothing today, though.

So there is or is not a low pressure area developing in the area due east of the SE Bahamas and north of PR and DR? It sure looks like a low pressure area to me.

Nope, see the image I posted above, anticyclonic turning at the surface north of PR as high pressure builds in. Don't use satellite to find this system, use observations. Satellite is looking above the surface.

[AtlanticWind]

[quote="wxman57"]Surface observations indicate lowest pressures are south of Cuba near the Grand Cayman Islands this morning (1009mb) vs. 1011-1014mb in the eastern Bahamas. Obs don't show anything near 22N/68W but ESE winds and 1011mb pressures. Buoy in NW Caribbean near 20N/85W has a north wind. Winds near Jamaica are ESE. The NW Caribbean is the place to watch over the next 2 days. Nothing today, though.[/quote


Seems like there must be at least a mid level circulation near 22 and 68.

[boca]

wxman57,

Please comment on area north of PR.
Looks to me something is trying to organize around 22n and 68w.

Agree canes04 what about that area north of PR is that 92L or is 92L down by the Cayman's. If that area north of PR is not 92L then which direction would it be heading.

[hiflyer]

Thank goodness there isn't a nice swirl on radar just above the Cay Sal bank dropping SW.....about 24.6/79.7......right where models a day or so said there would be...but there isn't much to it.....ol 92L is up to some neat tricks.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, so no surface low but I do see clouds turning counter-clockwise in the loop. Am I not the only person who sees this?

[boca]

Looking at the wide shot of the Basin, there is certainly a more pronounced spin right in the middle of 65-70 and 20-25 with increasing convection feeding in from the south. Perhaps none of the models really "knew" where to develop the low and this will end up being it. Sure looks vigorous on satellite animations. Much more so than those nude swirls spinning around yesterday.

The models tend to spin up storms anywhere there is a broad low.Nothing unusual about that.The local mets are talking about that naked swirl possibly turning into something. They know no better. I wish Oleeta on Fox7 Weather was a naked swirl. Anyways have to wait and see if it forms in that area.

I wish I had Fox7 here in Boca Raton,comcast dropped them 2 years ago and I miss looking at those hot weather babes that know nothing about weather but a nice body.

[boca]

Ok, so no surface low but I do see clouds turning counter-clockwise in the loop. Am I not the only person who sees this?

No your not nuts I see it too, I think its a mid level circulation not lower.

[wxman57]

I added arrows indicating surface wind flow on the image, pointing out the ridge near 22N/68W (north of PR) and low near the Grand Cayman Islands. Anything near 22N/68W is well above the surface. Lower pressures are farther west, where the GFS and EC have been indicating is the place the low will spin up.

[boca]

Wxman57 which way will that mess go by Puerto Rico?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks Wxman57 for the explanations!

Hey wxman57 is there any chance I get some rain/wind action from that
cyclonic low before it moves west away from FL?

[hurricanetrack]

Speaking of the Euro, it shows this thing just sitting down in the bottom of the BOC for many days. Nice.