WPAC: Typhoon KROSA

#101 Postby **CherlynV** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:02 am

It seems to have taken a more northerly track over the last few hours - I cannot get the justification page on JTWC (they seem to have not posted prognostic reasoning with this one). Reasoning behind storm's forecast track to be NW? Guess it is due to the STR, but my web page access is rather flighty this evening.

#102 Postby **Dave C** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:12 am

I've been running loops and it is definately heading NNW recently. the islands of yonagunijima and Iriomotejima which were directly hit by the last one will get it again if this nnw track holds. Eyewall showing up from Taiwan radar.
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/radar/radar.htm

Derek Ortt · #103 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:15 am

typhoons are no big deal in Taiwan. Their structures are actually built to protect the people; thus, the lack of any panic.

This is contrast to our construction, which is meant to make money for the contractors

#104 Postby **CherlynV** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:18 am

Dave C wrote:I've been running loops and it is definately heading NNW recently. the islands of yonagunijima and Iriomotejima which were directly hit by the last one will get it again if this nnw track holds. Eyewall showing up from Taiwan radar.
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/radar/radar.htm

I had some buddies visit Ishigaki during this last typhoon. Apparently typhoons "ain't no thang" to the folks there. I must head out there one of these times, simply to capture some photos of damage/aftermath.

Chacor · #105 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:43 am

Islands in for a rough time...

Chacor · #106 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:49 am

Links to obs:

Yonaguni (Latest: 992.7 hPa, 25 m/s)
Shiitabaru/Hateruma (Latest: 26 m/s)
Iriomote (Latest: 990.4 hPa, 16 m/s)
Ishigaki (Latest: 988.6 hPa, 20 m/s)
Miyakojima (Latest: 994.6 hPa, 13 m/s)
Shimoji (Latest: 19 m/s)

Chacor · #107 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:53 am

#108 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:12 am

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2007 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 22:34:28 N Lon : 124:19:48 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 908.1mb/132.2kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Chacor · #109 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:16 am

#110 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 12:02 pm

#111 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 12:03 pm

stu · #112 Postby **stu** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:40 pm

03:00am here in TW - looks like we are going to miss the eye now due to the more north track - plan is at day brake (06:00am here) is to head to the far North East tip of TW and find some shelter there to ride out the storm - I do exept some very high wind sppeds there.

As for Taipei - the out rains bands are already brining some gusty squals - I have a real issue with the internet here - is is VERY up and down - The Davis weather station is not yet deployed as we need to move to our final loction - I am just recording pressure right now which is currently 994.8mb falling at 1.3mb / hour.

More later *if* I can get internet.

#113 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:06 pm

05/1430 UTC 22.5N 124.5E T7.0/7.0 KROSA

#114 Postby **btangy** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 4:43 pm

Absolutely stunning microwave imagery from the AMSRE around 18Z:

Looks like a logarithmic spiral. Beautiful but potentially catastrophic at the same time.

Derek Ortt · #115 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 4:49 pm

the rainfall is the greatest threat to Taiwan... the winds are no longer that important due to the concrete and steel construction. Just talked to a gard student from Taiwan regarding this

Ptarmigan · #116 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 4:56 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the rainfall is the greatest threat to Taiwan... the winds are no longer that important due to the concrete and steel construction. Just talked to a gard student from Taiwan regarding this

Taiwan is mountainous, so more likely for heavy rain. Typhoon Nari in 2001 dumped up to 52 inches of rain.

stu · #117 Postby **stu** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 4:57 pm

Dereck - I have to correct you I am afaid. I am currenlty looking out if a hotel window 10 stories up on the East side of Ta1pei. (I have taken a picture which I will send over later when I can get good internet)

Most modern buildings seem ok - bt there are a LOT of sub prime building with simple tin roofs - over all there construction looks very poor.

However you are right about the water - the river opposite me is in full flood already !

#118 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:37 pm

Ishigakijima (ROIG) is currently reporting some hefting winds:

ROIG 052200Z 09056G78KT 0800 +SHRA FEW004 BKN008 BKN012 26/25 Q0967=

#119 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:50 pm

Poor islands.

#120 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 05, 2007 6:16 pm

Some dry air getting into the system?

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