INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Sean in New Orleans]

That's what I had a Lakeview yesterday...training. Not sure why a couple of people are dogging me b/c I had very heavy rain in Lakeview. Even my co-workers who aren't particularly concerned with weather made comments about how heavy the rain was yesterday. Maybe just under 3.5 inches of rain is nothing to some, but, we found it to be a rather large amount of rain to fall in 6 hours yesterday while we were at work....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Won't be nice in the cane fields when the harvest starts, and a guy with a little John Deere tractor is hauling two huge wagons of cane down Highway 82 towards New Iberia at 8 mph with 40 or 50 cars lined up, stuck behind him. Or all the mud tracked onto the roads, and the cane pieces on the road, which get slippery in rain. Or when they start burning the fields, and everyone's eyes turn red.


Meanwhile, here in lovely Houston, not quite as cool as yesterday morning, still a totally clear sky, except the sunrise is right behind an anvil on the Eastern horizon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh, I think the 2 little thunderstorms near the swirl are enough to force climo to kick in, and cause a Louisiana landfall, just West of Cameron.


I had car trouble in Cameron once, 7 amp switch shorted out, caused a dead battery after 2 weeks offshore, finally found a guy who jumped the car, and he was like "idiot, you left your lights on", but I hadn't. Lights on with switch off, made it back to LFT, driving down Ambassador Caffery when smoke started coming out of the steering column. That was like a $400 repair.

[Stormcenter]

Well 90L is finally starting to show some life as it nears the coast.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Too late?

[KatDaddy]

Not too late yet. Convection firing very near the center. Also looks like large feederband to the S trying form. This is why you never say never. Looks to headed more N than W toward the TX/LA border.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not too late yet. Convection firing very near the center. Also looks like large feederband to the S trying form. This is why you never say never. Looks to headed more N than W toward the TX/LA border.

Well, it may technically qualify as a tropical depression when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston and Holly Beach, with a low level closed circulation, thunderstorms, and maybe a weakly warm center, but since NHC canx the WC-130J, it'll never be called a tropical depression.


My bet that Steve never took, as we couldn't agree on specifics, was for storm force, not gale force, winds somewhere in Texas with a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone, so I technically would have won, but unofficially, (since only NHC can make this official) if any place in Texas did get a sustained 1 minute sustained storm force wind, he would sort have been the winner. Of course, if those t-storms poof out again this afternoon, and it comes in as a low cloud swirl, I'd be an unofficial winner. Because a convectionless cloud swirl isn't a tropical cyclone.


Well, sort of to sum up, in my unofficial opinion, if this comes maintains some storms around the swirl for the rest of the day, while we'll never know the temperature profile, it will technically be at least a sub-tropical depression, but since NHC makes the official call, and the plane isn't flying, it will officially be nothing at all.

[bbadon]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

[WmE]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

Persistence is the key. I would say if the recent trend continues a STD (lol) or even a TD might form today or tomorrow.

[Thunder44]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

One or two thunderstorms may be enough to send the plane in. But not enough for an upgrade yet.

Actually the plane has already been cancelled:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-133

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 21.0N 86.0W FOR 07/1800Z
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING IN BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAHAMAS CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/1140Z

[bbadon]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

Persistence is the key. I would say if the recent trend continues a STD (lol) or even a TD might form today or tomorrow.

STDS Special tropical disturbance statement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

One or two thunderstorms may be enough to send the plane in. But not enough for an upgrade yet.

Actually the plane has already been cancelled:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-133

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 21.0N 86.0W FOR 07/1800Z
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING IN BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAHAMAS CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/1140Z

With no plane, unless a miraculous covering of the entire circulation with storms, and gale force winds reported at more than one buoy or platform, NHC will never even think of upgrading.

Hence, my opinion, if the storms last all day, it will technically be a TD or at least STD, but only one source of official upgrades. And, of course, AccuWeather.

[WmE]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

Persistence is the key. I would say if the recent trend continues a STD (lol) or even a TD might form today or tomorrow.

STDS Special tropical disturbance statement.

Ah I see! Yes, a STDS might be issued later.

[wxman57]

Forget this one, folks. Just a broad low now. Little vortex is dissipating. Many observations offshore in the region, and they all say about 10 kt winds. No chance of this one becoming anything. Heading to Lufkin in a few hours for the Pineywoods Purgatory bike ride tomorrow morning. It's long past time to look elsewhere for development. 90L may cause a stray shower/tstm over SE TX and winds 5-10 mph.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per longer range Lake Charles radar, there doesn't seem to be any shower activity right at the center.


Satellite shows what we already know, a closed circulation, but top winds around 20 knot range




To revise, while I don't think there is an official minimum wind speed required for a tropical or sub-tropical depression, I don't think I have ever seen advisories iniated on a 20 knot depression. So even unofficially, this may not quite qualify as a TD.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Forget this one, folks. Just a broad low now. Little vortex is dissipating. Many observations offshore in the region, and they all say about 10 kt winds. No chance of this one becoming anything. Heading to Lufkin in a few hours for the Pineywoods Purgatory bike ride tomorrow morning. It's long past time to look elsewhere for development. 90L may cause a stray shower/tstm over SE TX and winds 5-10 mph.

Hate to argue with a Pro-Met, but I say 15 to 20 mph possible in a stray shower near the coast!

[wxman57]

Forget this one, folks. Just a broad low now. Little vortex is dissipating. Many observations offshore in the region, and they all say about 10 kt winds. No chance of this one becoming anything. Heading to Lufkin in a few hours for the Pineywoods Purgatory bike ride tomorrow morning. It's long past time to look elsewhere for development. 90L may cause a stray shower/tstm over SE TX and winds 5-10 mph.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/itsdeadjim.jpg

Hate to argue with a Pro-Met, but I say 15 to 20 mph possible in a stray shower near the coast!

Perhaps I should board up my windows before we leave for the bike ride?

[Kludge]

If these thunderstorms can maintain another hour or so I would suspect an stds. Any thoughts?

It does appear that our naked swirl is trying to put some clothes on before coming ashore. Must be shy.

Say, isn't it about now that the Houston radar should be going down?

[Sanibel]

So far in 2007 Wxman57's posts are the word of god.

[drezee]

doesn't have much time...but this littlte system is going to give it a go up to the coast. Hey if it gets to 40 mph you can get real local coastal flooding in S LA.