INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The area by puerto rico has great
SE convection and has it wrapping around
Favorable shear...
This area has a good chance of developing
and moving WNW under a strong ridge.

The other area of disturbed weather over the caribbean
may try to organize in the coming days.

It is probable that we have at least 1 named tropical system
in the next 3-5 days.

[AtlanticWind]

I would expect a new invest to be issued for the area north of puerto rico shortly.

[Shawee]

Oh well so much for that Cat.4-5 the Canadian model had hitting the northern
Gulf coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Maybe the canadians have been reading these posts! I thnk their membership the the hurricane model club should be revolked IMHO. Their runs only obfuscate an already confusing issue.

[wxman57]

I would expect a new invest to be issued for the area north of puerto rico shortly.

I'd agree that it may qualify soon as Invest 93L, separate from 92L in the NW Caribbean. Nothing at the surface, though. At least 2 days away from an LLC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would expect a new invest to be issued for the area north of puerto rico shortly.

I'd agree that it may qualify soon as Invest 93L, separate from 92L in the NW Caribbean. Nothing at the surface, though. At least 2 days away from an LLC.

thanks wxman57 for answering my earlier question. Enhanced rain may be
good..

And so we could in the next 3-6 days have 2 systems named? After
the puerto rico area gets an LLC and 92L gets going..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is getting so exciting!
A monsoon trough, MLC near PR, NW
Caribbean possibilities

[alienstorm]

This is a ULL and as such it will take anywhere from 2 -3 days to go down to the surface. Additionally, the models are saying that if it developes it will head out to sea NNE - NE...

Don't expect any invest to be declared given that it is a UL feature.

[AtlanticWind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1430 UTC 27.2N 150.8E T3.0/3.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 28.4N 171.1E T2.5/2.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 22.5N 124.5E T7.0/7.0 KROSA -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1145 UTC 22.8N 67.3W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean
05/1145 UTC 12.1N 48.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Take a look at where they have 92l located at.

[AtlanticWind]

Where the t numbers are does this mean they are going to use 92l for the system above PR

[lrak]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1430 UTC 27.2N 150.8E T3.0/3.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 28.4N 171.1E T2.5/2.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 22.5N 124.5E T7.0/7.0 KROSA -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1145 UTC 22.8N 67.3W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean
05/1145 UTC 12.1N 48.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Take a look at where they have 92l located at.

So what are we watching develop in the NW Caribbean ? If 92L is N of PR?

[mightyerick]

5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

6. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

Those systems can be robbing moisture from 92L

[AtlanticWind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1430 UTC 27.2N 150.8E T3.0/3.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 28.4N 171.1E T2.5/2.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1430 UTC 22.5N 124.5E T7.0/7.0 KROSA -- West Pacific Ocean
05/1145 UTC 22.8N 67.3W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean
05/1145 UTC 12.1N 48.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Take a look at where they have 92l located at.

So what are we watching develop in the NW Caribbean ? If 92L is N of PR?

Good question , Wonder if anybody can clarify this.

[MCWX]

I added arrows indicating surface wind flow on the image, pointing out the ridge near 22N/68W (north of PR) and low near the Grand Cayman Islands. Anything near 22N/68W is well above the surface. Lower pressures are farther west, where the GFS and EC have been indicating is the place the low will spin up.

The 12z GFS ensembles support this very fine analysis. As usual, in this sort of situation, there is often uncertainty in where the sfc circulation will initiate and that can lead to confusion especially when models may not be initialized properly.

Looking at the actual data is often better than the models, especially at this stage in development.

[JonathanBelles]

I do think 92 is n of PR. It is pretty clear in the WVL:

[mightyerick]

PR thingy looks scary!!!
I wonder if it would absorb to 92L and DISTURBED AREA 6: it would become strong.

[mightyerick]

I do think 92 is n of PR. It is pretty clear in the WVL:

i dont think so: look at GOEs and GTWO

DISTURBED AREA 2 is 92L

INVEST 92L on GOES


IT IS '93L'
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

It has just formed.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFS brings this into the Bahamas but makes it very weak and pulsy...LOL

[lrak]

I do think 92 is n of PR. It is pretty clear in the WVL:

i dont think so: look at GOEs and GTWO



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.



It has just formed.

So the area N of PR is 92L then?

[wxman57]

So the area N of PR is 92L then?

No, 92L is moving into the NW Caribbean. The area north of PR is separate. Should be 93L.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


CMC at 12z forms system north of puerto rico into a strong hurricane than takes it out to sea.