INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Thunder44]

Wxman57, after looking at this for the last half-hour, I'm not sure this isn't going to develop before making landfall. A new batch of thunderstorms has just fired up north of the center, and some more seems to be forming south of the center now. If you look at the water vapor loopthere there is alot dry air around, but there seems to be some ridging aloft building over the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

I will likely not develop but it looks better.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ed Mahmoud]

-64 to -68ºC cloud tops just North of the center of swirliness, coldest cloud tops I've seen ever, with this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Those storms may be tugging the swirl a tad North, for a Louisiana landfall. Unofficial prediction on unofficial Sub-Tropical Depression- Neches River to Kings Bayou. Winds will reach 20 mph, maybe gust a little higher, in showers along and East of landfall location.


But the real question, will that little convergence band, a second cousin, once removed, of 90L, coming onshore Texas now survive to the I-45/FM 1960 area and water my lawn?

[T-man]

Quick answer, Ed. No. Break out sprinkler.

[BigA]

Convection continues trying to build on the north side. Its attempting, but the air is too dry.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[Johnny]

So far in 2007 Wxman57's posts are the word of god.

Exept for Humberto.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So far in 2007 Wxman57's posts are the word of god.

Exept for Humberto.

I don't think anybody but Joe Bastardi was predicting Humberto more than 24 hours before it was upgraded to a depression.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection increasing over the LLC but still has to deal with some shear. But I would say its at least to me a depression. But it will be inland by later this afternoon any ways.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... om=2&size=

[mightyerick]

Give up 90L!!! You have not enough time!!!!!! You arent Humberto. Yes, you look a little better, but NOW IT IS TOO LATE.

[wxman57]

Little burst of convection is weakening. Winds around the low are 15 kts. Pressures around the low are rising. Weak center is 60 miles south of Lake Charles moving NW-N. Should be inland later this afternoon.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Little burst of convection is weakening. Winds around the low are 15 kts. Pressures around the low are rising. Weak center is 60 miles south of Lake Charles moving NW-N. Should be inland later this afternoon.

My god i'm sick of looking at this thing...please make it Die WXMAN..Ride your bike into its core..LOL

[cycloneye]

57,Where is Bones?

[Ed Mahmoud]

57,Where is Bones?

page 29, IIRC....

[Thunder44]

Little burst of convection is weakening. Winds around the low are 15 kts. Pressures around the low are rising. Weak center is 60 miles south of Lake Charles moving NW-N. Should be inland later this afternoon.

Yeah, looks 90L was just plaining tricks on us this morning. Dry air has won the battle. Convection has diminished.

[Johnny]

From Jeff this afternoon.....


Per Houston and Lake Charles NEXRAD and visible images show well defined surface low about 90 miles ESE of Galveston moving WNW. Large feeder band on W side of the low is moving into SE Harris County and will sweep westward across the southern half of the county over the next 1-2 hours. Additional bands are developing on the E side of the surface low and will move inland tonight into Saturday.



Will go ahead and bite on the higher rain chances for Saturday as the low should track WNW into Chambers Co and then across Metro Houston early Saturday and be located near Hempstead by Saturday evening. On this track bands of showers and thunderstorms will stream N and W across the area.



Surface winds should increase into the 15-25mph range overnight as the low moves inland.



Rainfall amounts by late Saturday should remain generally below 2.0 inches…SW counties may not see much if any rainfall as they will remain west of the circulation center.

[LaBreeze]

Pretty dark and ominous-looking clouds about an hour ago to my south, still some hanging around and moving quickly. Quite breezy as well. Some rain off and on now.