INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

Any one gonna make a thread about the new area north of the leeward islands so we won't have to talk about it in 92L's thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98488&p=1651019#p1651019

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,look at this very complex mess that the 2 PM TWD discusses.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW PORTION
ALONG 21N82W 13N77W. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A WEAK LOW MAY
BE FORMING JUST WSW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W. UPPER
RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
UPPER HIGH JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE SRN GOMEX. IN
ADDITION TO THE MENTIONED SFC AND UPPER FEATURES...COLLIDING
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO HELPING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS BETWEEN
71W-85W. THE MOST PRONOUNCED TSTM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND SE JAMAICA BETWEEN 73W-78W. QUITE A BIT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY EVIDENT
FROM THE SAN JUAN RADAR...AND IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA E THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SW NORTH ATLC...THOUGH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE
IS ALSO PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FUEL. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO
ANALYZED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N65W AS DICTATED BY
THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND THE SURROUNDING SFC OBSERVATIONS. THERE
IS SOME DEBATE ON IF SOME OF THIS ENERGY COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN.

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROAD LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ERN CARIB. TRADE FLOW WILL THUS
REMAIN DISRUPTED...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE/S WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS...AND WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ANTICIPATED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES THE SW
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS.
AT 1200 UTC A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM FAR SE FLORIDA TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH A MEAN 1010 MB LOW NEAR 23N74W AND
ANOTHER 1011 MB CENTER JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W. THE
LATTER APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PRODUCER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM FOUND IN
CARIBBEAN SECTION. TROUGHING N OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF AND ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF
77W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGHING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM THE MID ATLC COAST WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES/SWELL
OFFSHORE FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

I say that if anything develops,it will be in the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean areas.

[punkyg]

Do you think 92L will dissipate soon.

[cycloneye]

SSD has the position of 92L north of Puerto Rico.So they will aparently leave 92L and then tag the western Caribbean area as 93L.Is my read about this but of course the official changes or addtions of invests are made in coordination by NHC and NRL will be made.

05/1745 UTC 21.1N 66.7W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[alan1961]

Potential LLC has or is forming at approxmately 22.7N 68.0W per high intensity satellite imagery loop.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

yes just looked at that alien and its sure worthy of 93L..the only area i think personally that has the potential to develop..its wrapping convection round and moving west!

[lrak]

Wait a minute, I'm back from lunch and the NW Carribean low will become 93L and 92L is N or PR. Correct?

[alan1961]

Wait a minute, I'm back from lunch and the NW Carribean low will become 93L and 92L is N or PR. Correct?

no Irak..92L is an invest a bit more west of the area above puerto rico..its only me and maybe one or two others that think the area above puerto rico should be WORTHY of a new invest..which would be 93L

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

Take a look at this buoy ,quite a pressure drop.

[Blown Away]

I know it's difficult to initialize models when there is no true LLC. There is nothing within 200 miles of 23.4N/73W, that part of predicting weather confuses me. closes

[hurricanetrack]

Surface observations indicate lowest pressures are south of Cuba near the Grand Cayman Islands this morning (1009mb) vs. 1011-1014mb in the eastern Bahamas. Obs don't show anything near 22N/68W but ESE winds and 1011mb pressures. Buoy in NW Caribbean near 20N/85W has a north wind. Winds near Jamaica are ESE. The NW Caribbean is the place to watch over the next 2 days. Nothing today, though.

So there is or is not a low pressure area developing in the area due east of the SE Bahamas and north of PR and DR? It sure looks like a low pressure area to me.

How are things looking now in this area? Still all upper levels and nothing at the surface? Sure looks like it has grown since this morning.

[cycloneye]

Mark,surely something is going on north of Puerto Rico.In San Juan pressures haved been falling in the rate of.07/.03 = 7/3 = 2.33 mb in 3 hours.

[Frank2]

We'll see what the 530 TWO has to say about the area cycloneye mentioned - at this point, this system seems to be the only real issue on the map....

The area seems to be moving very slowly westward (or near stationary), so, we'll see what happens....

[hurricanetrack]

Funny b/c the CMC develops this and sends it out to sea. Kind of hard to see that but to some extent, I guess the GFS does too. Looks like the US of A will be protected this season from anything major. We have some time left in the season for something to happen, but the clock is down to less than a minute in the game. Know what I mean? So....from a strictly "wanting to intercept a hurricane" point of view, it's not looking too good. I guess all of my equipment will have to be moth-balled until next summer....oh well. What's bad for me is good for those who live near the coast.

[cycloneye]

[hurricanetrack]

Is there still anti-cyclonic flow at the surface as wxman57 pointed out earlier today in his graphic?

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.


Go to talking Tropics forum for the real future action.Bones!!

[hurricanetrack]

Huh? What is bones?

[cycloneye]

Huh? What is bones?

[Ixolib]

Huh? What is bones?

Not only that, what is meant by the "real future action".

Go to talking Tropics forum for the real future action. Bones!!

[ronjon]

18Z NAM takes the disturbance that is just NE of the DR and moves it W-NW toward the Bahamas. It also develops an oblong area of low pressure in the NW caribbean. All I know is this mass of convection in the caribbean looks like a monsoon trough. All it's going to take is a drop off in the UL winds and something big is gonna pop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml