EX INVEST 93L Thread

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away about this new invest.Will this one develop?

Link to thread in Talking Tropics

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98488&start=0

[RL3AO]

You gain one you lose one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This one already has nice shape to it. I would give this a 50 percent chance of becoming a named storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WHXX01 KWBC 060036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 0000 071006 1200 071007 0000 071007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 67.5W 21.5N 68.6W 22.6N 69.8W 23.7N 70.9W
BAMD 20.5N 67.5W 20.9N 68.4W 21.6N 69.4W 22.3N 70.1W
BAMM 20.5N 67.5W 21.2N 68.7W 22.0N 69.9W 22.8N 70.9W
LBAR 20.5N 67.5W 20.8N 68.3W 21.4N 69.0W 22.2N 69.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 0000 071009 0000 071010 0000 071011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.3N 71.5W 24.9N 73.0W 26.1N 74.6W 27.5N 76.0W
BAMD 22.9N 70.0W 23.8N 67.7W 25.4N 66.7W 27.7N 65.4W
BAMM 23.4N 71.3W 24.0N 71.7W 25.2N 72.8W 27.0N 73.4W
LBAR 22.9N 69.5W 23.9N 68.0W 26.4N 65.4W 28.8N 60.9W
SHIP 49KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 49KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 67.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 67.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

[Cyclone1]

What happened to that ridge?

[AnnularCane]

It seems weird to have an invest pop up now. Usually I just come here in the morning and see a new invest.

I think it's got a shot, but my predictions (when I dare to make one) haven't been great lately.

[Evil Jeremy]

Threat to FL at all?

[boca]

Models have it moving NW than north. I guess the ridge really isn't there.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure how long this one will last. Weak.

[boca]

I'm not sure how long this one will last. Weak.

I getting fairly confident that all these invests will amount to nothing.Their just pretty faces to look at then their gone.

[Evil Jeremy]

yea, well, I really wouldnt trust the BAM models, and in fact all of the models arent really on in their first run or so at a new system. Also, remember that this season so far has broken every rule in the book, so dont count on it being a north storm just yet.

[Nimbus]

The models must think the upper trough north of the system is going to dig SW. Looks like there is almost as much chance that 93l will continue rolling SW around that anticyclone. This time of year the upper air patterns get pretty hectic and its hard to predict exactly how they might change.

[Evil Jeremy]

guys, remember that the BAM models arent as reliable as the other globals (it ranks with the Canadian with me). Lets not get over our heads with part of the first run.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away about this new invest.Will this one develop?

Link to thread in Talking Tropics

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98488&start=0

should be renamed swirl watch in honor of what we went through the last few days in the bahamas. i declare open season on arguing about where the non existent llc is or will be or was..have fun.

[alienstorm]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.


NORTHWARD MOVEMENT???

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So there is a strong ridge to steer the caribbean
disturbance SW, but there is no strong ridge over
93L...WHAT!!???

Yesterday I talked about a trough but after looking at the
GFS steering layers the RIDGE won even though I thought
the Trough would win and was convinced of a NE motion
with 92L. But today the GFS steerings clearly show the ridge...
so what is making 93L go north and out fishing?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Northward Movement????

Steering layers of GFS show a strong ridge and kill
the trough that I was thinking would develop next week
yesterday.

I have no clue about tropical reality.

[Derecho]

models arent really on in their first run or so at a new system. Also, remember that this season so far has broken every rule in the book

I've seen people claim that every since since 1995.