EX INVEST 93L Thread

[cycloneye]

San Juan Long Range Loop



You can judge for yourself if this is moving northward or not.I see it almost stationary.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well the models paint the synoptics after looking at globals
a deeper system just may try to move north but that
ridge is just too strong IMO.

[frederic79]

Two things I noticed and I may be off base here, but here goes...
1- The initial postition posted on the NRL for 93L appears to be east of where the center is on the IR satellite loop.
2- The actual position looks several degrees due west of where it appeared this morning. Remember it was directly over PR
and now looks to be centered more toward the DR instead.
I don't know what motion it will exhibit tomorrow but for today I treally think it's drifted due west.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

San Juan Long Range Loop



You can judge for yourself if this is moving northward or not.I see it almost stationary.

Thank you cycloneye
Looks pretty much stationary...maybe a small movement
WSW...IMO

That area of green looks like convection
around a low moving slowly WSW...with the
axis of the ridge and the ridge is forcing it
WSW.

[Sanibel]

The vortex moving SW over the Florida Straits is now over Cuba and has had deep convection slide over it from the Keys. Whether this is coincidence or will boost the storm has yet to be seen.

93L looks like a weak disturbance in diurnal minimum very slowly coming together. This trough has sat over prime waters for too long to be nothing. Keep watching.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is JBs 3 week old Karen will come back someday disturbance.

[gatorcane]

hmmm. This one does appear it is organizing tonight. The north drift is supposed to continue or is it temporary?

There is definitely some kind of rotation going on NW of Puerto Rico

Any models sniffing anything out?

Here is the mean mid-level flow. The big ridge sits just to the north so I think temporary north movement and then more west or so as it feels this ridge.

[fci]

Looking at the map I cant imagine how it will go headfirst into a ridge.

More likely it will try and die.
Like all the Invests seem to do.
The "dying" part I mean.


(nice to see you back gatorcane)

[gatorcane]

Looking at the map I cant imagine how it will go headfirst into a ridge.

More likely it will try and die.
Like all the Invests seem to do.
The "dying" part I mean.


(nice to see you back gatorcane)

agreed. I say 10% chance of development. Why would something all of the sudden burgeon now after everything near where it is trying to develop has been sheared to bits....

thanks Dave, I do miss this board alot --- I had some serious withdrawals being away from it for a week.

Storm2K is definitely the place to be if you like weather like I do

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 30 Hours North of Hispañola

00z GFS at 42 Hours Still North of Hispañola

00z GFS at 54 Hours Well,a bunch of lows from North of Hispañola to hundreds of miles to the east.

00z GFS at 72 Hours Low NE of Puerto Rico

00z GFS at 84 Hours Not moving much

00z GFS at 96 Hours Moves more NE

00z GFS at 102 Hours Low moves slowly NE

00z GFS at 108 Hours Low dissapears

00z GFS at 120 Hours Low continues absent. I will stop here.

[gatorcane]

wow -- interesting Luis.

Is it me or is this setup more like early September in the tropics? Is it really October?

[fci]

The 54 hour looks like 93L belched (or perhaps barfed) and a bunch of little lows came spewing out.

Sorry, it sounds gross but not sure how to describe it.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like the ole GFS wants to crank it up and yank it out of there. But again, look at all of the low pressure areas out there- of course, this is not the models thread, but still...what's up with all the low pressure centers on the GFS?

[cycloneye]

Something eventually has to give and form from the monsoon trough.

[hurricanetrack]

Yep. Perhaps that is screwing up the model and its ability to determine a realistic track. We'll just have to wait and see....again.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the surface animation, it appears that the GFS has two low pressure areas and splits them- sending one west and weakening while the other heads east and gets stronger. Can't be right...

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a broad, linear area of low-pressure

The NE track seems reasonable with the approaching trough in 3-5 days

[hurricanetrack]

And what's with the rapidly deepening cyclone that starts off of New England, heads southeast and then really cranks up over the north-central Atlantic. Looks like another named sub-tropical storm?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not early september pattern I can promise you that. Or if you consider september of 97 with screaming westly over the tropical Atlantic normal sure. Yes its october and there is a few favorable area's. So I won't declare the season over, I don't have the nerve to do so.

[Derek Ortt]

we are not in early September