EX INVEST 94L Thread

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away about this Caribbean invest.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 1800 071007 0600 071007 1800 071008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 83.5W 16.9N 84.4W 17.0N 84.8W 17.0N 84.8W
BAMD 17.5N 83.5W 17.1N 84.7W 17.0N 85.4W 17.3N 85.9W
BAMM 17.5N 83.5W 17.0N 84.6W 17.0N 85.1W 17.1N 85.3W
LBAR 17.5N 83.5W 17.1N 84.5W 17.3N 85.6W 18.1N 86.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 1800 071009 1800 071010 1800 071011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 85.0W 19.7N 85.6W 21.4N 86.6W 21.7N 87.6W
BAMD 17.8N 86.4W 19.2N 87.7W 20.3N 88.9W 20.7N 89.7W
BAMM 17.6N 85.6W 19.3N 86.7W 20.3N 88.0W 20.3N 89.1W
LBAR 19.2N 88.0W 22.2N 90.3W 24.3N 90.7W 25.4N 88.6W
SHIP 50KTS 71KTS 82KTS 81KTS
DSHP 50KTS 71KTS 44KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 83.0W DIRM12 = 224DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

BOC bound it seems......whatever IT is.....

[ROCK]

not much to look attm......lower pressures down there for sure. CMC is sniffing this out in its last run as well as the NOGAPS......

[Cyclone1]

Hmm... something for the Floridians to keep an eye on. As I will be.

But for now, until it gets better organized, I'm going to zone back out and continue playing LOZ: Twilight Princess.

[Derek Ortt]

not sure why SHIPS intensifies this... upper winds look somewhat hostile with a possible UL developing just north of it

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 06 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-134

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02LLA CYCLONE
C. 08/0200Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 08/0530Z TO 08/1030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
CARIBBEAN SYSTEM INITIALLY, 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

It looks like NHC is very interested in this area.

[lrak]

is that whats spinning just West of Cuba, in the Yucatan channal an ULL?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

pressure is falling even more this afternoon.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... d=94&size=

[artist]

title changed to reflect the NW caribbean now.

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

check Cozumel.

[artist]

never mind 94 L is for the sw caribbean- this is for the nw Also - the active tropics list could be updated as well>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS shows a weak ridge after 2-3 days....
BOC or SE GOM? Time will tell.

[Blown Away]

These invests are driving me insane!

[Blown Away]

18N/83W, looks like a weak circulation in that general location. I can't see any circulation where the models initialize.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some Convection And Imagery:

[Blown Away]

Nice job TB Hurricane! I have a feeling this is the one we have all been waiting for.

[wzrgirl1]

yes i am right there with you....caribbean storms in october make me very nervous