INVEST 95L : North of the Azores - Gone from NRL

[RattleMan]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES HAS ACQUIRED SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So it has subtropical characteristics- that's a subtropical
storm Noel isn't it???? Even if it weakens later

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So it has subtropical characteristics- that's a subtropical
storm Noel isn't it???? Even if it weakens later

I agree but we will see if they upgrade in post season.

[HURAKAN]

The same case as the unnamed storm in 2005.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Can they still upgrade at any time?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a nightmare to me, I know that it is but it won't be upgraded. In we go back and forth with it for days, and the nhc is thought of as right even so there not. Then the end of the season they post upgrade it. In I don't have the time or energy to do that.

[caribepr]

This is a nightmare to me, I know that it is but it won't be upgraded. In we go back and forth with it for days, and the nhc is thought of as right even so there not. Then the end of the season they post upgrade it. In I don't have the time or energy to do that.

May all your nightmares be as benign as the above.

[Cyclenall]

So it has subtropical characteristics- that's a subtropical
storm Noel isn't it???? Even if it weakens later

I agree but we will see if they upgrade in post season.

Exactly, this will be yet another post season upgrade for 2007 (wow, there will be a lot of that!).

This is a nightmare to me, I know that it is but it won't be upgraded. In we go back and forth with it for days, and the nhc is thought of as right even so there not. Then the end of the season they post upgrade it. In I don't have the time or energy to do that.

What?

[HURAKAN]

Question: If you don't think it will develop, why make it an invest?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So it has subtropical characteristics- that's a subtropical
storm Noel isn't it???? Even if it weakens later

I agree but we will see if they upgrade in post season.

Exactly, this will be yet another post season upgrade for 2007 (wow, there will be a lot of that!).

This is a nightmare to me, I know that it is but it won't be upgraded. In we go back and forth with it for days, and the nhc is thought of as right even so there not. Then the end of the season they post upgrade it. In I don't have the time or energy to do that.

What?

I think we could have 2-4 post changes.

Karen to hurricane
Td10 to a tropical storm
96L tampa hurricane talks about looks very good. I say tropical storm, if not in post season maybe some day.


Even so 95L looks fully tropical. I'm just going to wait to see in post season. Don't have the time to fight it here or bring supporting data to say why.

[KWT]

95L can look tropical all it wants Matt you can't escape the fact its been analyzed with frontal boundaries extremely close to the center. Its opresentation may be just suggestive to be a subtropical system but not fully tropical IMO.
Fax charts also show the convective on the eastern side is due to a strong surface trough being present which is the providing instablity.

[southerngale]

This is a nightmare to me, I know that it is but it won't be upgraded. In we go back and forth with it for days, and the nhc is thought of as right even so there not. Then the end of the season they post upgrade it. In I don't have the time or energy to do that.

Time or energy to do what? They're the ones who post upgrade systems.

[wxman57]

Very strange invest. Either it's an STS or don't start an invest. SSTs there are about 16C as far as I can tell from that tiny global SST chart. I don't think I'd worry about this one too much.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I posted some pics on the pre-invest thread- does a winter storm that forms an eye like feature (not surrounded by a ring of storms, and IR usually shows all the cold cloud tops north of the system) have a relatively warm core? By relative, I mean only that the clear area at the center may be slightly warmer than the surroundings.

I also noted, while over much warmer water, 1980's Hurricane Charley formed from a low on what was an occluded front, on the 'cool' side of a weakening frontal boundary, between the Carolinas and Bermuda. It started as an STS, but at its peak was a 70 knot hurricane. The long term loops posted on that thread suggest that is how this formed.

[chadtm80]

Very strange invest. Either it's an STS or don't start an invest. SSTs there are about 16C as far as I can tell from that tiny global SST chart. I don't think I'd worry about this one too much.

Ya thats what I said back on page one wxman..

Not sure why an invest.. Should be a storm or nothing

Sort of like they are doing it just to say.. "Ya, we see it, but don't really care" lol

[Cryomaniac]

Holy sh- I just realised that I put Noel as my answer for the 'Strangest storm' Catergory on the now long gone wikipedia betting pools page. If I remember correctly, my words were "forms in teh far eastern atlantic and hits Ireland". So I hope it forms just so I can say I called it lol. I can see it being a post season upgrade though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to believe that if it was not for the super tutt and high levels of shear through out the Atlantic, that 2007 could of matched 1995 in named systems and hurricanes.

Also we will find out the truth in post season or maybe 20 years from now when landsea gets to this season.

[CrazyC83]

IMO this is a (sub)tropical storm right now...same spot as a similar one in 2005...

[Cyclenall]

:eek: Holy sh- I just realised that I put Noel as my answer for the 'Strangest storm' Catergory on the now long gone wikipedia betting pools page. If I remember correctly, my words were "forms in teh far eastern atlantic and hits Ireland". So I hope it forms just so I can say I called it lol. I can see it being a post season upgrade though.

That's pretty impressive, good work.

[CrazyC83]

Too bad there are no Hurricane Hunters based way up there...