EX INVEST 94L Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Agree fact789 I also saw some TS winds from Barry. But I am greedy and always
want a second tropical storm because I want to video record it this time.

Be careful what you wish for since wishing for a tropical storm can lead to a major hurricane...

oh I don't want a hurricane by any means. If system X is forecasted to be a hurricane...
go away from tampa LOL!!!

I do not want 94L because it likely will Not be a tropical storm...but stronger...

[Derek Ortt]

The dynamics are not currently there for this to do anything

The fact that the CANADIAN is not doing that much with this should tell everyone something

[Derek Ortt]

this is in no way similar to Wilma. To say it is is 100% irresponsible or pure sensationalism

every model indicated RAPID intensification with Wilma. In fact, GFDL was consistently predicting a sub 900mb storm for about 24 hours prior to formation. We have nothing like that here

[MiamiensisWx]

If 94L develops near the recent GFDL run's initialization, climatological data suggests a possible FL threat. 11 systems passed within that region. Six storms (Isbell '64, Floyd '87, Fabian '91, Lili '96, Irene '99, and Wilma '05) eventually turned NNE-ENE; four systems directly struck FL. I found the following image on another site. It originates from the NOAA Coastal Services interactive best track database.

1) Isbell '64 - Category 2 (SW FL)
2) Floyd '87 - Category 1 (FL Keys)
3) Irene '99 - Category 1 (southern FL)
4) Wilma '05 - Category 3 (SW FL)



I'm not necessarily trusting the GFDL, but I found some interesting tidbits about historical data in the area.

[cycloneye]

10:30 TWO:


SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection has diminished, but I suspect we should be patient. It may take an additional ~24 hours before we see sustenance, in my opinion. See the latest loops. Personally, I think this area may develop once we see additional low-level convergence. Currently, most of the convergence is situated inland over Honduras (click here). Eventually, I think we'll see a sfc low/LLC consolidate under decent ascent and low-level vorticity. Persistence is the key, and this area has been persisting under much better conditions (shear wise) than other recent "areas of interest". Mid-level moisture isn't a significant problem in the current environment.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM Loop

Yes,is the NAM,but anyway,here is the 00z run for those who follow this model.

[MGC]

I have a gut feeling that something is going to spin-up in this trough and the NW Carb is just the spot this time of the year. I don't see it rapidly developing though. Personally I hope nothing comes of it.....MGC

[cycloneye]

This post will be used to post the timeframes of the 00z GFS run.

00z GFS at 18 Hours

00z GFS at 30 Hours

00z GFS at 42 Hours Off Belize coast

00z GFS at 54 Hours Crawling in NW Caribbean

00z GFS at 84 Hours Still in NW Caribbean

00z GFS at 102 Hours Over Yucatan

00z GFS at 114 Hours Still paying a visit to Yucatan

00z GFS at 132 Hours Out in NW Caribbean waters

00z GFS at 144 Hours Over Belize.I will stop here.This has been one after another mini loops from the NW Caribbean to inland in Yucatan,out again to NW Caribbean,to go inland again In Belize.

[Vortex]

200mb GFS 00Z

*H+30
Very favorable upper-air pattern...Less than 10kts of shear

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

*H+42
Less than 5kts of shear

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

H+136 Significant shear over gulf

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[Vortex]

*H+84

Remains favorable over NW carribean


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

model NCEP also weakens the system

for once, it may be correct

[Vortex]

Whats interesting on both 00Z NAM and GFS is that they bring the energy near Jamauca and south of Haiti North and close off a low in the western Bahamas...

[eaglegirl]

Well, as long as everyone is talking about feelings, I'll chime in.

I've had a very bad feeling for several days about this general area... and I'm becoming increasingly concerned. My concern isn't necessarily about 94L... it's about the entire caribbean.

It looks like a bloomin' freight train all the way across. Every day it grows a bit more.

The lack of significant activity this season in the Gulf waters troubles me greatly. We all know tropical systems/hurricanes are necessary to let off the steam. We haven't had that this year and it just seems like the tropics are swelling... literally.

I'm just hoping that the tropics find a way to "let off some steam" without things growing to a humongous explosion.

Looking at the "big picture" all of the recent invests fizzling out does not seem like a good thing... at least to me. I'd much rather have a regular succession of "minor" storms.

[cpdaman]

i think this system needs to be watched very closely due to climotology favoring it and florida's vulnerability to caribbean storms late in the season.

also None dare call it shear but conditions in the tropical atlantic has not been hospital for a storm in many many weeks ( since felix) so this is the area to watch , and maybe the area that needs to be watched for the rest of the season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, there are a lot of seasons where nothing big gets into the Gulf, and somehow it still gets too cool to swim comfortably by Spring Break time the following year in Texas. Not that the inebriated college students care.

[Vortex]

00Z +144 Canadian has a strong cyclone over western cuba heading NE...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

[Vortex]

00Z +144 Canadian has a strong cyclone over western cuba heading NE...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

[HurricaneRobert]

Well, there are a lot of seasons where nothing big gets into the Gulf, and somehow it still gets too cool to swim comfortably by Spring Break time the following year in Texas. Not that the inebriated college students care.

Yeah, I agree. Energy doesn't accumulate over the long run in the GOM or the Caribbean. They're both like cups of water and the open Atlantic is the bathtub. Which is easier to heat?

[Ed Mahmoud]

00Z +144 Canadian has a strong cyclone over western cuba heading NE...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

Awfully flat bottom to that trough in the East on that.