EX INVEST 93L Thread

[Thunder44]

Looks like we may need another invest number soon. On visible imagery, there seem to be two areas of low pressure spinning. One is broad one just along the Dominican coast, which the models are initializing at now. And another low well north of Puerto Rico, which has under that burst of convection now.

[artist]

I was just looking at that area north of Puerto Rico also. I was trying to see if it was to the surface. It seems it might be and if so it is really starting to click.

[Nimbus]

The convection burst is impressive at sunset, but is there any circulation at the surface?

[cycloneye]

[BigA]

It is really hard to tell if there is a spin on radar. Even if there is, it may be at the mid levels. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Even on visible, I can't definitely say if there is or isnt a suface circulation, but I am only looking at wide view visibles.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

[gatorcane]

looking muuuch better tonight.....the convection is really blowing up.....and I notice it looks like it is trying to wrap around some kind of broad LLC....

In fact this convection we are seeing here is the most any invest has shown north of 15N in this area of the Atlantic all season....

Thoughts on this convection? Could it finally be making a run...?

Latest:

[gatorcane]

also note the stream of low clouds heading due East to West north of our system in this loop. I would think a NW movement then west...but lets hope this convection goes poof. The low to mid-level steering is East to west at this time.

You can see it in this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[BigA]

I'm not sure whether this is terribly relevant, but the buoy north of Puerto Rico, is showing WNW winds. This buoy is south of the center, if there is one, so west winds would be consistant with a circulation. Definitely will check after I wake up tomorrow.

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES N OF PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRETCHED OUT SFC TROUGH...ANALYZED ALONG 27N50W 23N60W TO THE
ERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W...AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOVE THE N
SHORE OF HISPANIOLA. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ROTATION
TO THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE IS
FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

[chadtm80]

I expect 93L to be dropped from NRL very soon.. ncep data has not updated in over 18 hours

[BigA]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.


I'm lost. The shear map shows 5-10 knots of shear. I dont understand how that is unfavorable. Are they predicting winds to become more unfavorable?

[cpdaman]

is flaring up nicely as we speak

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

shows also what looks like a bit or NW shear and possibly increasing cyclonic turning in nw caribbean

those shear maps are a ......J O K E

[BigA]

those shear maps are a ......J O K E

If not the shear maps, then what does one use to analyze upper level wind shear? They may not be definitively accurate, but they are not a joke.

[Thunder44]

I've seen the NHC mention the shear maps in their discusions, Jeff Masters uses them all the time. The maps aren't really bad, you just have to know how to use them. The CIMSS analysis the upper-level winds every three hours, but the atmoshpere is always changing. So you have to monitor satellite images all time to see if shear increases. Best images for shear to use is water vapor imagery, and visible imagery.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Gone.

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

Alright, I know 93L is gone and I have not been paying attention to much in the tropics due to doing a lot of work on the site.. But why is no one not discussing this area anymore? Its been convective for days