INVEST 91L : East of Lesser Antilles : Gone from NRL

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... ventnum=91

[cycloneye]

Boy,look how far the LLC has detached from the convection.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING W TO NW NEAR 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL...WITH MOST OF
THE LIMITED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 49W-54W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

[Gustywind]

Seems that shear is on slight decreasing trend on both maps...maybe a very tight window for 91L before another round of shear folks... given the lastest TWD :cheesy...just wait and see once again...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear has relaxed a bit on the map, so let's see what happens with 91L

[BigA]

It frustrates me greatly when the TWO says "upper level winds are unfavorable" yet the shear maps show 5-10 kts of shear. I dont know what to believe. The same comment can be applied to the latest TWO on 93L.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Another "depression" like system bites the dust.

[Gustywind]

It frustrates me greatly when the TWO says "upper level winds are unfavorable" yet the shear maps show 5-10 kts of shear. I dont know what to believe. The same comment can be applied to the latest TWO on 93L.

Absolutely guy , nice analysis good post, unbelievable as cangrl said yesterday "magic wave" lool one thing for sure wait and see thus this season is so verstaltile in my opinion... with Nina expected and strong shear observed...mad show in a nusthell . So let's see what happens with this system

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W TO NW NEAR 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL...WITH MOST OF
THE LIMITED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 50W-54W.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Gone.