EX INVEST 94L Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would put more money on this doing what 92L did. Fading,dieing, ect. I don't trust the models even with in 24 hours for development right now. The enviroment of the Atlantic is way to unfavorable.

[Blown Away]

I would agree w/ you, except this is an area where the shear has not been so strong. I think something will come out of this area before the end of the season.

[BigA]

I would put more money on this doing what 92L did. Fading,dieing, ect. I don't trust the models even with in 24 hours for development right now. The enviroment of the Atlantic is way to unfavorable.

I have to disagree. The rest of the Atlantic may be unfavorable (though I'm not 100% inclined to believe that) but the NW Caribbean right now is definitely. There is little shear, and it is a climatologically favored area. The fact that a number of invests have failed to develop does not mean that this one will not. It may die, but I doubt it.

[cpdaman]

i beleive this will develop, it is looking like more of a broad cyclonic turning.

but the motto for this season is .....patience

[cycloneye]

Bouy 42056

Falling pressures are continuing in this area where the bouy is.

[jlauderdal]

I tought that the Canadian was not useful in the tropics.I think it was discused in the past days that the Canadian model was not good for the tropics.

wxman57 says no cmc and nam in tropics and ortt says no euro in tropics. i say no lbar ever.

[cycloneye]

I would agree w/ you, except this is an area where the shear has not been so strong. I think something will come out of this area before the end of the season.

That means that invest 94L will be up for the next 7 weeks. Jk,a little laughter to see if the forum animates as is dead.

[wxman57]

I tought that the Canadian was not useful in the tropics.I think it was discused in the past days that the Canadian model was not good for the tropics.

wxman57 says no cmc and nam in tropics and ortt says no euro in tropics. i say no lbar ever.

My favorite model is the XTRP model.

[lrak]

I was just fixing to post that 1004 pressure there with a S wind? What gives, a pressure that low and no storm? I have never heard of such a thing

The other buoys in the Gulf are show strong East wind of 20kts for at least 8 hours until you hit buoy 42002 off of Brownsville which has a falling pressure 29.79 and falling with a NNW wind.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling

so will the blob over the Yucatan and the decaying trough out in the central Gulf team up and bypass the NW Caribbean for developement?

[Blown Away]

Ok Wxman57, you told us to watch the NW Caribbean on Sunday. I know this is not 92L moving SW into this area but is some of the energy from 92L responsible for invest 94L? What is your prediction for 94L?

[Blown Away]

Local Met very interested in this invest, he showed a graphic w/ half of the models going W into the Yucatan and the other 1/2 going NE between SFL and Cuba making a very sharp E turn near Western Cuba.

[lrak]

Cancun...http://weather.noaa.gov/weathe ... /MMUN.html


the buoy just to its East...http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station ... tion=42056

hmmm....


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 that seems like a center should be somewhere in there

[Derek Ortt]

it's common this time of year with more of a monsoon trough present in the W Carib to need a pressure of about 1000mb to have a TD

[lrak]

dang...why didn't you say that last year

goes back and watches tv.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was just fixing to post that 1004 pressure there with a S wind? What gives, a pressure that low and no storm? I have never heard of such a thing

The other buoys in the Gulf are show strong East wind of 20kts for at least 8 hours until you hit buoy 42002 off of Brownsville which has a falling pressure 29.79 and falling with a NNW wind.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling

so will the blob over the Yucatan and the decaying trough out in the central Gulf team up and bypass the NW Caribbean for developement?

That belongs on my "what is that in the Gulf" thread....

[robert_88]

Not to sound like a major downer but....what a mess with that monsoon trough. Looks like it is going to be awhile for the Caribbean to have favorable conditions. The 2007 season looks like it is getting real close to shutting down earlier than expected if....it hasn't already. Atmospheric conditions have been horrible for development for quite some time now.

[gilbert88]

OMG... a whole week without a Tropical Storm forming!

Repeat my mantra... "Season Cancel".

[jlauderdal]

I tought that the Canadian was not useful in the tropics.I think it was discused in the past days that the Canadian model was not good for the tropics.

wxman57 says no cmc and nam in tropics and ortt says no euro in tropics. i say no lbar ever.

My favorite model is the XTRP model.

wht about the giselle model?

[Nimbus]

I'm still watching that blob near 17.5N 84W. The surface pressure is low over a very broad shallow area so there is not much pressure gradient to spin anything up quickly. That could change by Tuesday.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

someone had a gut feeling, can't remember who, but it looks like tonight could be the night unless it all poofs in the next 3 hours. A wonderful fetch of swell is being created and lots of waves for the TX coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 waves 7feet at about 8 seconds. takes deep breath....woot!