EX INVEST 94L Thread

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

someone had a gut feeling, can't remember who, but it looks like tonight could be the night unless it all poofs in the next 3 hours. A wonderful fetch of swell is being created and lots of waves for the TX coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 waves 7feet at about 8 seconds. takes deep breath....woot!

That is in the Gulf.Post it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98515&p=1652281#p1652281

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
BETWEEN BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SURFACE
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Derek Ortt]

latest GFDL has this near the Pacific in about 5 days (though I suspect something is wrong with their topography)

[Derek Ortt]

if anything were to form, it may be near eastern Cuba. The models are developing a weak area of low-pressure there AND there is some good surface convergence there

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF Animation

It has a 957mb,87kt hurricane in BOC.

[wxmann_91]

if anything were to form, it may be near eastern Cuba. The models are developing a weak area of low-pressure there AND there is some good surface convergence there

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

I definitely think something will stir up in the Caribbean in the next 5 days. Maybe something like Keith. Models have a tough time picking up small TC's.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

someone had a gut feeling, can't remember who, but it looks like tonight could be the night unless it all poofs in the next 3 hours. A wonderful fetch of swell is being created and lots of waves for the TX coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 waves 7feet at about 8 seconds. takes deep breath....woot!

That is in the Gulf.Post it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98515&p=1652281#p1652281

yes Sir.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 080023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC MON OCT 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071008 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071008 0000 071008 1200 071009 0000 071009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 82.5W 18.6N 83.4W 19.7N 84.5W 20.5N 85.9W
BAMD 17.5N 82.5W 18.4N 83.3W 19.5N 84.2W 20.3N 85.0W
BAMM 17.5N 82.5W 18.7N 83.4W 19.8N 84.5W 20.7N 85.7W
LBAR 17.5N 82.5W 18.3N 83.1W 19.7N 83.9W 21.2N 84.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071010 0000 071011 0000 071012 0000 071013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 87.3W 21.6N 90.3W 21.2N 93.3W 20.6N 96.2W
BAMD 21.0N 85.6W 21.7N 86.2W 22.2N 86.2W 23.5N 83.8W
BAMM 21.3N 86.8W 21.6N 89.0W 21.8N 91.2W 21.8N 93.1W
LBAR 22.5N 84.6W 24.4N 82.7W 26.2N 78.9W 29.2N 71.7W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 70KTS 66KTS
DSHP 60KTS 50KTS 51KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 82.5W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 82.4W DIRM12 = 36DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The only invest left is 94L.Will this one finnally be the one thats breaks the invests losing streak in october?

[hurricanetrack]

The only invest left is 94L.Will this one finnally be the one thats breaks the invests losing streak in october?

My vote is no, it will not. I think it will fester around for several days until we see some cold air sweep in from Canada and roll the whole thing up for good. I really think that at this point- there is little evidence or DATA to suggest otherwise right now. I hope I am wrong, but that is how I see it tonight.

[wxman57]

It really doesn't look like this invest is going to do much anytime soon. Just checking latest GFS and EC and they have it down over the Yucatan for the next 7-10 days. Just low pressure down there but no clear development. It's an area to watch, certainly, but without concentrated and persistent convection it can't get going. Interesting what the GFS is doing off the SE U.S. coast later this week, developing 2 storm centers along/ahead of the next cold front. Could be part of the energy of 93L involved. Both storms shoot out to sea to the NE with the front. Could be a better chance of development there in the short term (next 5 days).

Here's a 0Z surface analysis & satellite of 94L. Not really much to look at. Low pressures near the NE Yucatan, mid level rotation east of Belize.

[Recurve]

I didn't see a trough on the 12z nogaps that cycloneye posted, it looked like a high over the whole US, The only lows were off the far NE and NW coasts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People 95L(tropical storm) was likely the event for at least the next 5 days,. I'm just going to declare this dead now.

[americanrebel]

even though it is over the Yucatan already, I think we need to wait a day or two before we declare this dead.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCB.html

Pressures haved been low all day and evening in the Cayman islands.

Also in Jamaica

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[Blown Away]

NHC has 94L as Floater 1.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM rolling in...

Appears to have initialized low well...Based on that may be a good run to follow.

H+24
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif
H+60 STRONGER 1000MB Moving NE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
H+66 NE a little faster
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
H+78 STRONGER 996MB Moving NE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
H+84 Over Central Cuba
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif



**NAM 00Z Animation**
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have no idea where this will go. Seriously. Oh well.
And that One Line right there is the most
elaborate and detailed prediction I have ever
made...just kidding.

At least I'll get some nice winds behind the
cold front next weekend.

[Vortex]

By the way looks like the MLC just N of the Honduran coast and very near Rotan is where the LLC may spin up..Currently void of convection but I'm expecting this to re-fire tonight and may see 94L adjusted to near 17.5/83 near Rotan

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BELIZE...HONDURAS...
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.