Karen making a comeback

[Vortex]

The convection associated with ex-Karen just east of the Leewards has begun to re-fire this morning. While theres still northerly shear over the system the Global models forecast this to lessen over the next day or two.
Will she make the comeback???

NAM 12Z

H+78

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

H+84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow NAM really intensifies it.

[Vortex]

They say ever girl likes a little bit of a mystery....Karen..hmmm

[Vortex]

looks like a little spin SE of Puerto Rico...Cycloneye is NWS PR saying anything?

[Vortex]

12Z GFS also picking up on it...

H+24

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[Vortex]

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[Vortex]

Pressures continuing to fall throughout the region...

[top]

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 041610
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST THU OCT 04 2007

PRZ001-004-041700-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 88 73 62 N10 29.90F HX 96
PONCE MOSUNNY 88 73 62 SW12 29.88F HX 96
CEIBA SUNNY 88 73 62 E9 29.90F HX 96
$$

PRZ006-007-041700-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA PTSUNNY 81 75 83 NE9 29.90F
CHRISTIANSTED PTSUNNY 84 73 70 VRB3 29.91F HX 91

[Honeyko]

But is it really Karen?

[hurricanetrack]

It really is- a very hungry and anorexic Karen.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, that would be one amazing story if she can rise from the dead...

[msbee]

I don't know if she is rising from the dead or not
But she has been giving us some bad weather all day.
read my report on stormcarib.com
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

Currently it has been raining quite heavily for over an hour.
It is lightening up a little right now
I am at home but I know our roads must be terribly flooded.
My rain gauge says almost 1.5 inches.. that's in about an hour.
the latest report from the airport is:
Latest 5 PM (21) Oct 04 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) ESE 5 heavy with thunder


http://barcann.livejournal.com/

[flwxwatcher]

I read J.B.'S column tonight and he is still watching the remnants of Karen and he thinks it may be a player at this time next week around Florida.. We will see.

[CrazyC83]

On the large maps, ex-Karen can clearly be made out with the enormous blob of disorganized convection, even though I cannot find any kind of a circulation (in other words it is a long way from redevelopment).

[Honeyko]

I still don't buy that it's Karen. I wore out my eyeballs a couple days ago trying to discern a remnant swirl on the 1kms, and couldn't find one.

[xironman]

It may not be Karen per se, the low level swirls died a few days ago. But it has evolved from Karen's moisture and large cyclonic envelope. If something did get going in the area I would be interested in how the NHC handled the naming.

[stormchazer]

It really is- a very hungry and anorexic Karen.

She's only just begun......to live! (Getting the Carpenter's reference)

[xironman]

I know that radar is a poor way to find low level features, but with a west wind in San Juan http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/TJSJ.html, you can see a mid level rotation in the long range radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Made it into the TWO. Can any pro-mets confirm that this disturbance is (at least partially) Karen-leftovers?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

5. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

[Honeyko]

It may not be Karen per se, the low level swirls died a few days ago. But it has evolved from Karen's moisture and large cyclonic envelope. If something did get going in the area I would be interested in how the NHC handled the naming.

It'd get a new name if there's no identifiable low-center progression from one system to the next.