EX INVEST 94L Thread

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
18.5N85W...ANALYZED 1003 MB AT 09Z. THIS LOW SITS ALONG A SFC
TROUGH WHICH RUNS ENE FROM THE LOW TOWARD CUBA NEAR 20N79W AND
WNW OF THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW
GULF. SYNOPTIC 24-HOUR PRESSURE TENDENCIES ONLY INDICATE SLIGHT
DEEPENING SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
TURNING. A 0230Z ASCAT OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE REVEALING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
84W-88W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

$$
CANGIALOSI


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Cuber]

it is a smaller scale feature; thus, the globals are probably el stinko in predicting precise areas of convergence

Derek Ortt: Forecasting almost 100% in English, with just a little "spanish lingo".

Can't blame Derek ... it's his location ... living where he does it's osmosis

[cycloneye]

08/0645 UTC 17.8N 85.2W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[TampaFl]

Key West AFD this morning:


000
FXUS62 KKEY 080641
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH MAY OR MAY
NOT STRENGTHEN...AND MAY OR MAY NOT GET PULLED NORTHEASTWARD BY A
CONTINENTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UNTIL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.&&



$$

[Blown Away]

Wow, first glance this morning it's easy to find a circulation.

[TampaFl]

Key West AFD this morning:


000
FXUS62 KKEY 080641
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...
...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH MAY OR MAY
NOT STRENGTHEN...AND MAY OR MAY NOT GET PULLED NORTHEASTWARD BY A
CONTINENTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UNTIL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.&&



$$

[cycloneye]

A. 08/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 08/1500Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


IMO there is a fair chance that they will go this afternoon,but is only my opinionThey will decide during the morning if they go or not.

[Nimbus]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
18.5N85W...ANALYZED 1003 MB AT 09Z

They actually gave it a center. Seems to be moving NW but its pretty shallow and broad Maybe by sunsett we will see some inflow/outflow characteristics. Otherwise mañana..

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 080534
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.5 82.7 10./ 1.9
6 17.8 82.8 353./ 3.9
12 18.5 83.4 314./ 9.1
18 19.3 83.6 350./ 8.2
24 20.0 84.3 313./ 9.5
30 20.3 84.9 298./ 6.8
36 20.8 85.6 309./ 7.5
42 20.7 86.4 267./ 7.9
48 20.7 86.8 269./ 4.0
54 20.5 87.4 246./ 5.8
60 20.5 87.6 279./ 1.7
66 20.5 87.9 273./ 3.2
72 20.5 88.1 254./ 2.1
78 20.5 88.2 283./ 1.2
84 20.8 88.5 321./ 3.4
90 20.8 88.7 288./ 2.1
96 21.0 88.8 333./ 2.2
102 21.0 89.0 257./ 2.6
108 20.9 88.9 126./ 1.3
114 20.7 88.8 148./ 2.2
120 20.6 88.5 110./ 2.7
126 20.6 88.4 73./ 1.3

6z GFDL

[Blown Away]

What I notice is the models slowly backing off the SW turn back down into the Yucatan towards the Pacific. Steering currents must be weak for a day or 2 once 94L reaches the Yucatan tip area.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 42056

Pressures continue low in the area and the bouy reflects it with the data.

[wxman57]

Bouy 42056

Pressures continue low in the area and the bouy reflects it with the data.

The pressure at that buoy has risen 1.5 millibars in the past 2-3 hours. Strongest winds I see in the western Caribbean still 10-12 kts. It's an area to keep an eye on, but it's not doing anything fast. Probably no reason for recon to take a look today. Nothing to learn that we can't see with surface obs and satellite.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 081223
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC MON OCT 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071008 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071008 1200 071009 0000 071009 1200 071010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 83.7W 19.0N 85.0W 19.4N 86.6W 19.5N 88.1W
BAMD 18.3N 83.7W 19.0N 84.8W 19.5N 85.9W 19.8N 86.8W
BAMM 18.3N 83.7W 19.0N 85.0W 19.5N 86.3W 19.6N 87.6W
LBAR 18.3N 83.7W 19.2N 84.9W 20.5N 86.1W 21.8N 86.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071010 1200 071011 1200 071012 1200 071013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 89.4W 17.9N 91.4W 16.4N 92.8W 15.0N 94.4W
BAMD 19.9N 87.6W 19.9N 88.8W 20.5N 88.9W 22.7N 85.0W
BAMM 19.5N 88.8W 18.8N 90.9W 18.1N 93.0W 17.3N 95.4W
LBAR 23.0N 87.1W 25.2N 84.8W 28.8N 78.1W 34.9N 62.4W
SHIP 58KTS 72KTS 77KTS 78KTS
DSHP 32KTS 27KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

08/1045 UTC 17.9N 85.1W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[ftolmsteen]

Haven't had one of these in a while where the models haven't a clue where it'll go. This one is going to drive the NHC batty I'm sure.

[Thunder44]

It doesn't look better organized in the low-levels on visible imagery and the convection doesn't look very well organized around the center either. NHC usually makes a decision to send or cancel the afternoon flights early, around 12z. I do think they will cancel for today.

[Derek Ortt]

next invest please

[gatorcane]

next invest please? I'm not quite sure there will be too many more given we are approaching mid October and there is a big trough that is supposed to dig down into the GOM in about 3-4 days with cool, dry air spreading across much of the central and northern GOM. (according to Wxman earlier in this post).

[Frank2]

Yes, the GFS has been showing that deep trough - looks like temps across the eastern half of the country will be cooling by late week, with highs only in the upper 60s as far south as Atlanta...

As you said, not sure if there will be too many more invests - many seasons have ended by mid-October...

[tailgater]

next invest please

WOW