EX INVEST 94L Thread

[MGC]

Yes, convection has dimished tonight. Don't think 94L will develope into a TD prior to passage over the Yucatan. Depending on how long 94L lingers over the Yucatan will depend on if the trough picks it up. Currently I don't see this becoming much for a while if at all....MGC

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

i wonder if a little 94L went over Campeche.

where is this 29.63 (1003) WNW 12 now, over water?

[chadtm80]

Pressures for Caribbean and Mexico

[bawes]

Here is the synoptic history for Opal. Is this a similar pattern? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

[BigA]

Doesn't sound entirely different, with a depression stalling over the Yucatan for 3 days, then accelerating to the northeast under the influence of a "large amplitude mid to upper level trough". I'm sure someon with more experience than I will state that the environmental conditions are utterly different, and honestly, I would trust that person.

[Thunder44]

Looking at satellite images this morning and some obs from overnight, it looks the low center has already moved just inland over the Southern Yucatan or Northern Belize coasts, or it at least very close the coast, if the low is still that broad. East wind at 6mph is being reported at Cancun of 3:48am EDT and a west at 7mph Belize City as of 2am EDT:

Cancun,Mx:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

Belize City:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

I haven't the 6z models, so I wonder if NHC has given up on development. 5:30am TWO will be more revealing.

[Thunder44]

773
ABNT20 KNHC 090857
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[caneman]

LLc appears to be tightening up just off the coast but is this a case of too little too late? MAybe only 12 hours before onshore. And then with the front swiinging in the next couple of day, it just doesn't look it will have time to become much/

[wxman57]

The low center is just about 50 miles offshore now. Winds across the NW Caribbean are in the 10-15 kt range. Convection not very organized. Center should be inland by this afternoon. Probably too weak to qualify as a TD. Here's an analysis with crosshairs representing the low center:

[Thunder44]

084
WHXX01 KWBC 091013
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1013 UTC TUE OCT 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071009 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071009 0600 071009 1800 071010 0600 071010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 86.6W 18.4N 87.9W 18.6N 89.2W 18.5N 90.6W
BAMD 18.1N 86.6W 18.3N 87.7W 18.5N 88.8W 18.6N 89.9W
BAMM 18.1N 86.6W 18.4N 87.8W 18.7N 89.1W 18.7N 90.3W
LBAR 18.1N 86.6W 18.5N 87.4W 19.5N 88.3W 20.8N 88.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071011 0600 071012 0600 071013 0600 071014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 91.8W 16.9N 93.7W 15.1N 95.2W 14.0N 96.2W
BAMD 18.7N 91.0W 18.8N 92.6W 18.7N 93.6W 18.8N 95.8W
BAMM 18.6N 91.6W 18.1N 93.7W 17.1N 95.7W 16.3N 98.0W
LBAR 22.2N 88.7W 24.8N 85.2W 28.2N 77.7W 35.6N 63.2W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 73KTS 72KTS
DSHP 32KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 86.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 85.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[caneman]

The low center is just about 50 miles offshore now. Winds across the NW Caribbean are in the 10-15 kt range. Convection not very organized. Center should be inland by this afternoon. Probably too weak to qualify as a TD. Here's an analysis with crosshairs representing the low center:

WXMAN57,

Once it exits the Yuc, will it have time to become much? When will Sw'erly winds take hold that far South and where do you foresee it going?

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL animation

It does a loop inside Yucatan and gets out again to the NW Caribbean waters as a storm.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
AS A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N86W MOVING
ERRATICALLY. BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 84W TO ALONG THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS REMAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Hmm moving erratically.

[cycloneye]

09/0545 UTC 18.1N 86.8W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

Bouy 42056

Pressures are rising slowly.The winds are gusting up to 17 kts from the ESE.

Hello!! I guess I am not the only one here. Come and participate in the discussions about this system,lets be proactive.

Well,to not make another consecutive post,I am adding the latest from SSD.

09/1145 UTC 18.2N 86.8W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Looks like is stationary.

[Thunder44]

I'm waiting for more visible images to see if the center is consildating offshore.

[caneman]

Didn't see this posted and I don't know how to post the image so if someone wants to post image here ya go......Tropical Storm formation possible within next 48 hours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Come on 94L please become a tropical storm!!!
Don't dissappoint me.
I hope it goes Northeast after hitting the Yucatan!!
Since stuff is uncertain all I can do is hope.

[cycloneye]

I'm waiting for more visible images to see if the center is consildating offshore.

NRL at 12:00 UTC has it at 18.3n-87.1w,just offshore.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[JPmia]

00z GFDL animation

It does a loop inside Yucatan and gets out again to the NW Caribbean waters as a storm.

Is it me or are the models begining to hint that this system will head toward Cuba and then Florida or points to the east?