EX INVEST 94L Thread

[DanKellFla]

It looks like it is trying to get its act together but it is just too close to shore. I think it has started to move west, but that could just be a wobble.
I think we will know the outcome by 4 PM today. But, it looks like it will be tough for a named system to form.

[wxman57]

Center is crossing the coast. Disorganized convection. Winds 15-20 kts max, generally less. Recon canceled. No TD today.

[tailgater]

It looks like it is trying to get its act together but it is just too close to shore. I think it has started to move west, but that could just be a wobble.
I think we will know the outcome by 4 PM today. But, it looks like it will be tough for a named system to form.

Agreed, in fact I think it's center is mostly inland now , but these weak systems with a large circulation can maintain and sometimes get even better organized over land. Just something to watch as the season winds down. It'll probably continue westward and die off on mainland mexico.

[Thunder44]

319
NOUS42 KNHC 091330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 09 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-137

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN CANCELLED
BY NHC AT 09/1210Z.

Recon cancelled. No other flights scheduled.

[caneman]

Sure seems like it has picked up speed and should be off land by tomorrow. We'll see what if anything happens then.

[Thunder44]

Here's where the center appears to me now. Look at the red circle. It is right on the Yucatan coast, just east of Chetumal:



I don't think it will get back offshore anytime soon. Should be meandering over the Yucatan over the next few days.

[chadtm80]

[fci]

00z GFDL animation

It does a loop inside Yucatan and gets out again to the NW Caribbean waters as a storm.

Is it me or are the models begining to hint that this system will head toward Cuba and then Florida or points to the east?

Boy the models map that Chad just posted show what Derek has been saying; that it will probably trap itself in the Bay of Campeche. Or just meander and stumble around. Only seeing one model taking it NE.
Looks good to me.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[/quote]I don't think it will get back offshore anytime soon. Should be meandering over the Yucatan over the next few days.[/quote]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

I think the center is still offshore and either not moving or maybe even drifting east. I'm not sure it's a certainty it will spend that much if any time over the Yucatan.

[Blown Away]

Not sure what your seeing, the models drive 94L onshore and spend a significant time over land. I doubt much will be left once it goes back over water. There was not much to begin with!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the center is still offshore and either not moving or maybe even drifting east. I'm not sure it's a certainty it will spend that much if any time over the Yucatan.

Not sure what your seeing, the models drive 94L onshore and spend a significant time over land. I doubt much will be left once it goes back over water. There was not much to begin with! :wink

The models show a broad area of low pressure that drifts over the yucatan and then drifts back east. Coupled with the TPC's observation of slow, eratic movement I would say it is no certainty it moves in any particular direction for awhile. Visable loops certainly show the center offshore and hardly moving.

[Thunder44]

268
ABNT20 KNHC 091509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Sanibel]

Something with 2007 is drying out forming systems. Some kind of undefined negative environment. If you look at the total coverage area of 94L this one has serious size. The drawing area goes all the way over to EPAC if it strengthens and draws on the potential energy in that drawing field. If it doubles back it should move into its heaviest convection bands. However this, like all the others, has pocked and dry convection.

We'll either see slow development of a strong storm or another 2007 poofer.


GFS takes it right over Boca Grande.

[Sanibel]

2007 is getting it.

[alienstorm]

It appears to have become stationary off the coast, and while development may be slow I do see it better organized now then I did earlier today.

If it is able to maintain itself offshore then slow development would continue and possible a depression would form. We will need to monitor during the afternoon hours to determine furhter.


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Sanibel]

There's something wrong with the atmosphere because any system in this climatology at that location should be getting strong and growing deep convection at this point. We've all heard over and over that this is the only spot in the Atlantic where conditions are favorable, yet the one system that managed to form here is struggling just like the systems further east.

[Derek Ortt]

it is a little early yet for the strong storms to form in the NW Caribbean

They have in recent years been forming in the middle to late October

And, there is almost always a storm after the first cold front (the first cold front sometimes spawns the storm)

[CalmBeforeStorm]

There's something wrong with the atmosphere because any system in this climatology at that location should be getting strong and growing deep convection at this point. We've all heard over and over that this is the only spot in the Atlantic where conditions are favorable, yet the one system that managed to form here is struggling just like the systems further east.

I disagree. October storms in this area historically take a long time to consolidate and develop. I wouldn't be surprised to see this take a few more days to develop while it sits down there waiting for something strong enough to pick it up. Land interaction is the only wildcard.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. I thought for sure it would develop. Well I may be getting on the "season over" band wagon real soon. I just hope it's a cool winter down here this year. Maybe next year will be different. I'm glad no major landfalls this year in the U. S.. Have a great year everyone. If anything forms. I'm sure you'll will be here.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Wow. I thought for sure it would develop. Well I may be getting on the "season over" band wagon real soon. I just hope it's a cool winter down here this year. Maybe next year will be different. I'm glad no major landfalls this year in the U. S.. Have a great year everyone. If anything forms. I'm sure you'll will be here.

Living in South Florida and having a spinning low pressure in the western caribbean in mid-october I would not conclude the season over. Of course that's just me.