ProMets: Should 95L have been named? Page 3

[Category 5]

Oh well. The NHC is much smarter than me.

The Most Important
Thing: I think squirrels are cute (Off topic because the
tropics are dead anyways).

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, they'll hear you.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nahh lol I don't believe in that stuff where you say something
won't happen and then it happens- all those wild "Jinx" theories
LOL

I can provoke mother nature all I want and it won't do a thing to me
because nature is not influenced by me LOL. I love doing that
when somebody says I jinx myself.

HAH Mother Nature you and your silly hurricanes are going
down for the rest of the season...And nature if you have a
problem with that then Say it/Spray it to my face LOL.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I take back what I said about the season being dead. The season
is NOT dead-- when I posted that I must have been on CRACK.

[dwg71]

13/4/2 are THE official numbers until the NHC changes, if they choose to do so.

There are always borderline storms, some could go either way.

[Category 5]

13/4/2 are THE official numbers until the NHC changes, if they choose to do so.

There are always borderline storms, some could go either way.

Probably 13/5/2

The NHC pretty much admited that Karen became a Hurricane briefly.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes 13/5/2 Are the Official Numbers.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes 13/5/2 Are the Official Numbers.

That's quite impressive right there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The way I seen it

96L of the one tampa posted. And 95L where both tropical storms. TD 10 could of been one for a short time. Karen was likely a hurricane for a short time.

So pretty much...

15/5/2 is the way I see it. But heck td 10 was close to.

[dwg71]

Yes 13/5/2 Are the Official Numbers.

NHC never issued warnigs for Karen as a Hurricane...

Its 13/4/2

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Derek Ortt]

no, it is 13/5/2, the ATCF working best track (which is THE official statistics, has Karen as a hurricane). Advisories are not official statistics, they are operational estimates only

now, they may take Karen back to a TS when the official final best track is released (which I hope they do), but for now, Karen is a hurricane


And Matt, please stop inflating the numbers with phantom storms.

[dwg71]

I stand corrected, but its ok, my preseason predictions were 13/7/2 and if we dont get any more (not likely, but possible) that would probably be the closest when we did our predictions for 2007.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=93722


Editted to add this predictions - 142-eyesontropics=13/5/3 and 166-Tireman4=12/5/2 They would be the winners.

[Thunder44]

now, they may take Karen back to a TS when the official final best track is released (which I hope they do), but for now, Karen is a hurricane.

Why do you hope they do? You don't believe Karen ever reached hurricane strength?

[Derek Ortt]

I do not believe it reached hurricane intensity.

There is no solid data suggesting that it did. What I believe happeed was that the pressure was a little lower at 12Z, 12 hours prior to recon fidning a very strong TS. The pressure had started to rise, but due to the intense convection that may have been aided by the shear, the flight level winds were able to be transported efficiently to the surface. Thus, the winds remained at 60KT while the pressure slowly rose. This has happened before (such as Andrew where the pressure rose, but the winds remained strong) under shearing environments

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These are not phantom storms.

But td 10 had ts winds
as I posted earlier. The vortex
message/recon data/SMFR data
clearly shows a tropical storm that
was not classified.

STS in the NE atlantic with 994 mb
and 50 mph sustained winds and a somewhat
warm core was a definite subtropical storm.
It did not get classified I am baffled.
The data clearly shows a subtropical storm.

96L I have no data on so the NHC wins that one
but the Low Level Circulation sure looks like
that of a decent tropical storm with multiple
spiral bands with some convection though
the heaviest convection was off to the northeast.

That has to be at least 15 right there.
There not phantom storms if the data
suggests otherwise.

But numbers don't matter anyways. It's the impacts. I personally
don't really care if it is upgraded post season.

[Derek Ortt]

no, TDE 10 was NOT a TS

thunderstorm winds are not representative of the circulation. The gale force winds were in a band not really connected with the circ

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Arlene was upgraded based on one of those "bands" a few hundred miles northeast of the center.

Also subtropical storm over the northeast Atlantic you don't went to debate me on that one. Yes I can understand that it was weird and go's against the "laws" put into place for tropical cyclones. With the fact that it had more to do with other factors other then sst's.

[Derek Ortt]

Arlene had 60KT winds that were associated with FEEDER BANDS

That band in TD 10 was not wrapping into the center. Also, thunderstorm gusts are not representative of winds

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Arlene had 60KT winds that were associated with FEEDER BANDS

That band in TD 10 was not wrapping into the center. Also, thunderstorm gusts are not representative of winds

Thanks derek,,,

[Category 5]

Why don't we just stop arguing, naming former invests, upgrading storms, and as Derek put it "inflating the numbers", and just let the NHC make the call.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why don't we just stop arguing, naming former invests, upgrading storms, and as Derek put it "inflating the numbers", and just let the NHC make the call.

That is what we enjoy doing.