EX INVEST 94L Thread

[Sanibel]

This one has convected nicely over land. If it gets back over water it should develop. Think we finally have a storm here.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED OCT 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071010 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071010 0000 071010 1200 071011 0000 071011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 88.1W 19.8N 89.5W 19.9N 90.7W 19.8N 91.9W
BAMD 19.2N 88.1W 19.4N 89.2W 19.6N 90.3W 19.8N 91.1W
BAMM 19.2N 88.1W 19.6N 89.3W 19.8N 90.5W 19.8N 91.6W
LBAR 19.2N 88.1W 19.8N 89.2W 20.9N 90.2W 21.9N 90.5W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071012 0000 071013 0000 071014 0000 071015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 93.0W 18.7N 95.2W 18.4N 97.5W 19.5N 99.4W
BAMD 20.1N 91.6W 20.9N 91.7W 21.2N 92.5W 22.7N 95.2W
BAMM 19.9N 92.4W 19.4N 93.6W 19.2N 95.8W 20.1N 98.5W
LBAR 23.2N 90.0W 25.5N 86.7W 29.8N 79.6W 33.4N 68.0W
SHIP 38KTS 44KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 41KTS 47KTS 52KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 88.1W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

Moved over Yucatan. Looking better.

[hial2]

This one has convected nicely over land. If it gets back over water it should develop. Think we finally have a storm here.

The key here is IF it gets back over water BEFORE it dissipates..

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 100215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS LOW...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
WWWW

[BigA]

The key here is IF it gets back over water BEFORE it dissipates..

From what I remember Wxman57 saying (and I apologize if I misinterpreted his words), weak systems like this do not tend to dissipate over land the way an organized storm would. He mentioned Erin of this year and Ernesto of 2006, which strengthened while inland. Also of note might be the depression that became Opal, which spent some 3 days over the Yucatan without dissipating. I am in no way alluding to this system being similar to Opal in any way, except for the idea of a weak system spending prolonged time over land.

[Thunder44]

071
ABNT20 KNHC 100859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS LOW...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be interesting, the models keep this low and energy down around the Yucatan for almost a week and it looks like the Tropical Wave now approaching the Carib. may arrive in time to stoke this energy. With that, it's just a matter of time before a longwave trough swings down toward the Gulf and picks this Low up and sends it NE or even E. Don't let the potential for shear fool you into believing it wouldn't develop.

[Dean4Storms]

This one has more of my attention than any of them so far this year as far as a potential threat to my local area.

[fci]

The key here is IF it gets back over water BEFORE it dissipates..

From what I remember Wxman57 saying (and I apologize if I misinterpreted his words), weak systems like this do not tend to dissipate over land the way an organized storm would. He mentioned Erin of this year and Ernesto of 2006, which strengthened while inland. Also of note might be the depression that became Opal, which spent some 3 days over the Yucatan without dissipating. I am in no way alluding to this system being similar to Opal in any way, except for the idea of a weak system spending prolonged time over land.

I'm admittedly quibbling here; but I don't recall Ernesto strengthening over land. I remember Cuba almost killing it and it just maintaining itself over Florida before some rapid stengthening over the Atlantic prior to coming ashore in NC.

[Air Force Met]

I'm admittedly quibbling here; but I don't recall Ernesto strengthening over land. I remember Cuba almost killing it and it just maintaining itself over Florida before some rapid stengthening over the Atlantic prior to coming ashore in NC.

Ernesto was a weakening tropical storm when it went over Cuba. It was a hurricane and was on a downward trend. It was down from a 65 kt hurricane to a 40 kt tropical storm before it even hit Cuba. What we are speaking of here is the tendency of tropical waves and tropical lows to not weaken much over land (such as Cuba or the Yucatan)...not organized tropical cyclones such as tropical depressions or storms. Weak lows can get enhanced by land because the convection fires due to instability during the day and night and they have no core to get disrupted...unlike their more mature siblings.

[cpdaman]

19.2 88.5 appears to be the center

in what day might we see some northward movement in response to a ULow dropping through great lakes and trough digging over the eastern CONUS.

[Chacor]

Gone from NRL.

[wxman57]

Yes, it doesn't look like 94L will survive being over land for a few days. But I think there's a good chance a TC will form in the western Caribbean over the next 10 days. Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet for a possible landfall.

But for 94L...

[Sanibel]

There's a slight S of W movement to this weak Low. The steering current has pushed this far enough south to threaten its survival. If you look at the surface clouds across the SW GOM they are actually entrained to the deeper convection going inland in the southern BOC. This is still in limbo and too early to tell. Meanwhile the convection over the Caribbean is still acting like a scattered trough that could develop at any time. If 94L dissipates I assume this convection will deepen and make a run at formation. Maybe N and out-to-sea. If 94L is allowed to spring out of the trap and head N look out.

[Evil Jeremy]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[BigA]

Yes, it doesn't look like 94L will survive being over land for a few days. But I think there's a good chance a TC will form in the western Caribbean over the next 10 days. Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet for a possible landfall

I know this is sort of speculation, but what energy could this TC come from? The covection west of Jamaica? The wave east of the Lesser Antilles?

Much thanks.

[cycloneye]

Moved the thread to talking tropics as is gone from NRL and is not mentioned anymore in the TWO.But still comments can be made about the system until it dissipates or does something else.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB thinks general low pressure may park down there, with one area of rain coming out and maybe catching South Florida before zippping out to sea (not a TC), then the area waits for surge approaching Lesser Antilles to pile in, and maybe spin up and finally try to make it into the Gulf or BoC.

[Frank2]

That sounds like more "JB fiction" to me - hopefully, the season has ended...

I'll never understand that man - it makes me wonder how he's received at professional conferences...