WPAC: Tropical Storm Lingling

Coredesat · #1 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:11 pm

Yet another invest near the dateline:

Under some shear, but doesn't look bad at all.

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:24 pm

ACPN50 PHFO 082000
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON OCT 8 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A DISTURBANCE NEAR 18N 178W IS UNDER POSSIBLE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WATCH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 11N 161W IS
A POORER POSSIBILITY. BOTH DISTURBANCES ARE NOT CONSIDERED THREATS
TO HAWAII.

$$

Chacor · #3 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:47 pm

08/2030 UTC 18.2N 178.8W T1.5/1.5 94C -- Central Pacific Ocean

869
TPPZ1 PGTW 090016

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR DATELINE

B. 08/2330Z

C. 18.7N/6

D. 178.9W/5

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (08/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 1.0. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS.

VIAULT

Chacor · #4 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:23 pm

JTWC WPac STWO:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.7N 178.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SLIGHTLY DISPLACED WEST OF A SMALL, PERSISTENT AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. AN 081955Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

Chacor · #5 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:55 pm

ACPN50 PHFO 090150
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON OCT 8 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A DISTURBANCE NEAR 19N 179W REMAINS A WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 11N 162W
HAS POORER PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVAL. BOTH DISTURBANCES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT HAWAII.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:58 pm

Convection is partially displaced but the LLC seems to be vigorous. To me it looks like a tropical system.

Chacor · #7 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:03 am

Has crossed into WPac.

Coredesat · #8 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:11 am

And disappears from NRL shortly after.

Coredesat · #9 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:55 pm

It's back on NRL as 97W:

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:15 am

WWJP25 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 55N 165E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 55N 169E TO 53N 175E 50N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 50N 176E TO 48N 179E 45N 180E.
COLD FRONT FROM 50N 176E TO 45N 173E 41N 168E 38N 164E 35N 160E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 160E TO 34N 156E 32N 152E 31N 148E 31N 144E
32N 139E 31N 136E 31N 132E 30N 129E 30N 127E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 53N 128E MIDDLE AMUR RIVER MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 32N 139E EAST 25 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 176E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 125E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 171E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Chacor · #11 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:32 am

Impressive.

Chacor · #12 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:43 am

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 23N 175E NNW 10 KT.

JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.5N 174.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTLFOW INDUCED BY THE TUTT
CELL TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ALSO, THE TUTT CELL IS CAUSING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

Chacor · #13 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:27 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 23.6N 175.2E POOR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 25.8N 174.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

On the verge of 0718.

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:15 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 23.8N 175.0E POOR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 25.5N 173.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

T2.0 from KNES.

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:35 pm

11/1430 UTC 24.4N 173.4E T2.0/2.0 97W -- West Pacific Ocean

#16 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:17 pm

RJTD at T2.0 in their first sat fix as well.

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:29 pm

Looking great.

Coredesat · #18 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:11 pm

Center is slightly exposed, but it still looks fairly good.

Coredesat · #19 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:37 pm

I'm surprised no one mentioned this, but a TCFA has been issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N 173.7E TO 27.4N 171.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.2N 173.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 24.2N 173.5E, APPROXIMATELY
485 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN IN-
CREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO
EVIDENT IN AN 110957Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW HAS SHEARED THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, LEAVING
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND
20 KNOTS, AND ANY RELAXATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL VORTICITY COULD EASILY INCREASE CORE WINDS TO THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINTED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 122000Z.//

Chacor · #20 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:29 am

TCNA21 RJTD 120600
CCAA 12060 47644 NAMELESS 24252 11727 13294 225// 93008=

T2.5, so we should have 0718.

WPAC: Tropical Storm Lingling

WPAC: Tropical Storm Lingling

Re: INVEST 97W (ex-94C) near International Dateline

Re: Tropical Depression near International Dateline (97W)

Who is online