Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

[Chacor]

Second invest of the Southwest Indian Ocean season...
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3S 67.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. CONVECTION IS
FLARING NEAR AN AREA OF ELONGATED TROUGHING SHOWN IN A 091336Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
OVER THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.

[P.K.]

FQIO25 FIMP 100000
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, WEDNESDAY 10 OCTOBER 2007 AT 0000 UTC .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : WARNING NIL


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, WEDNESDAY 10 OCTOBER 2007 - 0000 UTC

EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALONG 02S 46E, 01S 52E, 01S 55E, 02S 60E, INTO
LOW 1006 HPA NEAR 03S 62E CONTINUES ALONG 02S 70E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 18S 80E, 16S 75E, 12S 70E, 10S 68E.

ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN LATITUDE 01S AND 07S AND
LONGITUDE 85E AND 97E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 33S 40E, 35S 50E, 37S 60E.

HIGH 1022 HPA NEAR 28S 70E.


PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

8/1: WESTERLY 10-15 IN EXTREME SOUTH, EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20
ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/2: WESTERLY 15 IN EXTREME SOUTH, EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY
15-20 ELSEWHERE. SEA MODERATE WITH SOUTH WESTERLY SWELLS.
VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/3; 8/4: EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20; LOCALLY GUSTING
25-35 MAINLY IN EAST 8/3 AND 8/4. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN WEST 8/4. VISIBILITY GOOD TO LOCALLY POOR
IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/5: CLOCKWISE 15 IN CENTRAL NORTH; EAST NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN
NORTH EAST; WEST SOUTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH WEST; EASTERLY TO
EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH; LOCALLY GUSTING 25-35 IN
THUNDERY SHOWERS. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERY
SHOWERS. VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/6: SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 10 IN NORTH; EAST SOUTH EASTERLY
10 IN SOUTH; LOCALLY GUSTING 25-35 IN THUNDERY SHOWERS. SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH; SOUTH WESTERLY TO WEST SOUTH
WESTERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SEA MODERATE. ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN
EAST. VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.


PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

WIND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN 8/1. LOW 1006 HPA EVOLVING
NEAR 03S 62E EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD.


T.O.O 10/0050 UTC=

[Chacor]

FQIO26 FIMP 101200
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, WEDNESDAY 10 OCTOBER 2007 AT 1230 UTC .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : WARNING NIL


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, WEDNESDAY 10 OCTOBER 2007 - 1200 UTC

LOW 1005 HPA NEAR 05S 65E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 02S 90E AND 02S 100E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10S 70E AND 14S 82E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 29S 88E, 33S 93E AND 36S 92E.

HIGH 1024 HPA NEAR 27S 75E.


PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

NORTH 8/1, NORTH WEST 8/2: EASTERLY 10-15. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY
GOOD.


SOUTH 8/1: NORTH-EASTERLY TO VARIABLE 05-10. SEA MODERATE.
VISIBILITY GOOD.


REMAINDER 8/2: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15 IN NORTH. EASTERLY TO
NORTH-EASTERLY 10 IN SOUTH. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/3: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20 LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTH WITH POOR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS.


8/4: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO LOCALLY EASTERLY 20 GUSTY. SEA ROUGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


EAST 8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO VARIABLE 10 IN EXTREME NORTH, EASTERLY
TO NORTH-EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH IN THUNDERY
SHOWERS. VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.


WEST 8/5: CLOCKWISE 20 AROUND LOW NEAR 05S 65E. WESTERLY TO
NORTH-WESTERLY 15 IN NORTH AND EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH.
SEA ROUGH IN THUNDERY SHOWERS. VISIBILITY POOR.


8/6: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 10-15, LOCALLY SOUTHERLY 10 IN EXTREME
NORTH. SEA MODERATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
VISIBILITY POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/7: SOUTH-EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH . SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY 15 IN
NORTH. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.


PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS:

LOW NEAR 05S 65E IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY.


T.O.O 10/1235 UTC=

[Ed Mahmoud]

I spent almost a week in Diego Garcia, the British Indian Ocean Territory, part of the Chagos Archipelago.

Had to muster at 7 am to work, but knocked off for the day after lunch, and the USAF had something called a Class Six store or something, with most excellently low prices on beer.


Then I flew off on the C-141 to al-Masirah.

[Sanibel]

That report says conditions are favorable yet the chances for development are "poor". Doesn't make sense.

Look at the southern hemisphere clockwise spin.

[Coredesat]

Different agencies say different things.

[Chacor]

Different agencies say different things.

He's referring to the JTWC's POOR.

"DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR."

[RL3AO]

That report says conditions are favorable yet the chances for development are "poor". Doesn't make sense.

That means the chances has been upgraded from none, to poor. If it continues to organize it will be upgraded to fair, and finally good.

[HURAKAN]

Read again, "poor in the next 24 hours." Meaning that in the next 24 hours the system is not likely to develop, which seems to be right.

[Coredesat]

Looking good.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 67.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 63.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 101813Z AMSU/B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM NOW WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC.
A 101652Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE, WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS NEAR THE CORE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY GRADIENT FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING MULTIDIRECTIONAL
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

00z High Seas:

LOW 1003 HPA NEAR 07S 65E.

8/5: CLOCKWISE 15 AROUND LOW. SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH,
WESTERLY 10 IN EXTREME NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
VISIBILITY POOR IN SCATERRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

LOW NEAR 07S 65E IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

082
TPXS10 PGTW 110916

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA

B. 11/0830Z

C. 8.4S/2

D. 61.9E/6

E. SIX/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/06HRS (11/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

68/PBO CIRCLE METHOD.

DELEO

Also T1.5 from KNES.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Appears that Mauritius has designated it a TD.

Synoptic chart for 1200 UTC October 11

[Chacor]

Okay, TD here means tropical disturbance:

PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1004 HPA NEAR 8.1S 61.9E ( LATITUDE EIGHT
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT SOUTH WEST 10KT.

MAY CAUSE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH
EASTERLY WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY LATITUDE 10S TO 16S
AND LATITUDE 56E TO 72E TOGETHER WITH ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH
SEAS.

T.O.O: 11/1245UTC.

[HURAKAN]

11/1430 UTC 8.6S 60.5E T1.5/1.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

11/2030 UTC 9.6S 59.9E T1.5/1.5 91S