Texas: Season Over

[jasons2k]

The calendar says October 10th.

The first real front of the season has now cleared the coast.

And, according the the NWS HGX: "FIRST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK"

All signs point to our season being over here in Texas. Thank goodness we made it through the season without a major striking the TX coast.

[wxman57]

I think we can safely say that chances of any significant impact to Texas are now very remote.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The calendar says October 10th.

The first real front of the season has now cleared the coast.

And, according the the NWS HGX: "FIRST SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK"

All signs point to our season being over here in Texas. Thank goodness we made it through the season without a major striking the TX coast.

Well, technically, in the last 60 years, we had a barely Cat 1 on October 15th, but in all reality, the season ends with September.

90L made it to Texas, and it may have been technically a TD at landfall, but if it had been any stronger, and steered by a deepr layer, it wouldn't have made it as far West as it did.


The Cowboys-Miami Leon Lett Thanksgiving Day 'Ice Bowl' is the earliest major winter weather I can remember at my Mom's house in DFW area, and the 2004 Christmas Eve dusting is the earliest at my house, so now its on to the secondary severe weather season late October through November, then on to Winter!

[cycloneye]

Thankfully Humberto did what it did,close to the Texas coast or it would be close to a major.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thankfully Humberto did what it did,close to the Texas coast or it would be close to a major.

Between Humberto and Erin, it wasn't a slow season here at all. And it really wasn't a slow season in Jamaica or Central America.


Any of the mountains in PR high enough for snow?

[gerrit]

Any of the mountains in PR high enough for snow?

Nope!

The highest peaks are Cerro La Puntita (4,389 ft) and Los Tres Picachos (3615 ft).

[ROCK]

I think we can safely say that chances of any significant impact to Texas are now very remote.

so your saying theres STILL a chance....


FWIW- models still sniffing out BOC development with confirmation from Dr. Masters / JB in his latest update(courtesy of EWG).....

[Stormcenter]

Heck you can add La.,MS. & AL. to that list too.
The odds of those states being affected by a major
hurricane or even a hurricane has diminished immensely
in my opinion now that it is October 10th. The most
probable (if something were to develop) area now is from
the FL. panhandle east and southward. IMO

[LaBreeze]

I agree stormcenter. Thankfully, Louisiana was not affected by anything major this year. Another year to add to our rebuilding efforts.

[hurricanetrack]

Thankfully Humberto did what it did,close to the Texas coast or it would be close to a major.

With all due respect, Humberto was losing its backside quickly and in my opinion, even if it had another 24 hours over water, it would not have been a major. It ramped up to its potential, given the pattern of the time, and that was it. Radar showed that it was being eroded from the SW and was more like a half-a-cane than a hurricane. I firmly believe that even if it had been 200 miles farther out to sea, given the same conditions, that it would have peaked out at maybe 100 mph, but not 115 or higher. Still, it takes nothing away from the record strengthening that it underwent before landfall.

This is in direct contrast to the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which went from TS to cat-5 in very little time or other notables such as Wilma in 2005, etc. These ramped up and had IMPROVING conditions around them, not limited good conditions like Humberto had.

I guess the other way to look at it, is that if Humberto had encountered better conditions earlier, then it would have had time to reach major-cane strength. But that's like saying "If only so and so had made that last second shot instead of it rimming out- they would have won the game." All things being equal, it is my guess that Humberto was what it was and could have been no more even with more time over water.

[TSmith274]

Yep ole Bob Breck sounded the all clear last night. Said the season for us is over. Gotta say I agree with him for once. Very relieved to have another one behind us. See yall next year!

[Ptarmigan]

I'd keep an eye until November 30th. Records only go back to the 19th century. So, I wouldn't be some complacent.

[Category 5]

Although, off the top of my head, I can't think of a Hurricane striking Texas in October or November, it's still foolish to let your guard down at any time.

Texas learned that first hand in 1900. And look what happened. The most horrific natural disaster in U.S history argueably. Given, that was in early September but still, never EVER let your guard down.

[Johnny]

Say what y'all want but I'm sounding the all clear along the Texas coast. Now I'm ready for some nice crisp jacket weather to ring in the holiday season. Yeeeehawwww!!

[Ptarmigan]

Say what y'all want but I'm sounding the all clear along the Texas coast. Now I'm ready for some nice crisp jacket weather to ring in the holiday season. Yeeeehawwww!!

I wish that , but that's foolish to call it over yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am pretty sure it is over, but am not 100% sold yet. There has been some chatter about energy coming into the western GOM next week and some of the models show it too. If something forms in the BOC or western GOM, then a system like Jerry cannot be ruled out. We will just have to wait and see. For now though, I am not worried about anything other than some nice, cool, refreshing mornings ahead!

[Category 5]

Speaking of which, can anyone name a storm thats hit Texas after this date? I couldn't think of one.

But heck, we once could say a storm could never hit spain ether so ANYTHING is possible.

[LaBreeze]

Anything that should form in the BOC or Western GOM should head Northeast or east due to the strong westerlies, right? I'm thinking all is clear along the LA coast as well.

[Ptarmigan]

Speaking of which, can anyone name a storm thats hit Texas after this date? I couldn't think of one.

But heck, we once could say a storm could never hit spain ether so ANYTHING is possible.

Records only go back to the 19th century. Spanish exploreres in the 17th century reported hurricanes hitting Texas in late October to November.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of which, can anyone name a storm thats hit Texas after this date? I couldn't think of one.

But heck, we once could say a storm could never hit spain ether so ANYTHING is possible.

Records only go back to the 19th century. Spanish exploreres in the 17th century reported hurricanes hitting Texas in late October to November.

And in the 1800s the East River froze over almost every year to a sufficient depth that people could walk from Brooklyn to Manhattan. Things do change, and anything is possible, but realistically, it has been season over in Texas for a while.