Tropical Depression 15 : Atlantic : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Is for area in the NorthCentral Atlantic.

[Chacor]

Central Atlantic.

[drezee]

964
WHXX01 KWBC 111430
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1430 UTC THU OCT 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20071011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071011 1200 071012 0000 071012 1200 071013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.8N 52.8W 30.4N 51.3W 31.0N 51.0W 32.0N 51.2W
BAMD 29.8N 52.8W 30.4N 49.7W 29.9N 48.4W 29.0N 48.7W
BAMM 29.8N 52.8W 30.2N 50.6W 30.5N 49.9W 30.9N 50.0W
LBAR 29.8N 52.8W 30.5N 50.3W 30.9N 48.7W 31.2N 48.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071013 1200 071014 1200 071015 1200 071016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 51.1W 38.9N 47.2W 43.2N 39.0W 46.5N 31.1W
BAMD 27.9N 49.8W 26.1N 52.5W 25.8N 54.5W 26.8N 53.9W
BAMM 31.7N 49.9W 33.4N 47.1W 35.8N 42.8W 39.2N 33.6W
LBAR 31.2N 48.3W 32.2N 49.2W 33.9N 48.9W 36.6N 44.6W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.8N LONCUR = 52.8W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 55.3W DIRM12 = 64DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 27.8N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

Quikscat ascending pass from this morning UTC missed the system.

[AnnularCane]

Well, this seems to have popped up in a hurry, although I haven't been paying much attention. Kinda looks like Chantal.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, Mattthehurricanewatcher and I saw this yesterday. I'm surprised it isn't on the Floater since the spin is very obvious.

The weak 2007 flurry continues.

[wxman57]

This is formerly 93L. It's accelerating to the northeast along a frontal boundary. There's clearly an LLC. A number of ships are reporting from that area. Pressures are generally 1013-1014mb near the low. Reported winds of 20kts would indicate a central pressure perhaps in the 1011-1012mb range. Wind shear is increasing across the low, and it's merging with a weak frontal boundary. Don't really see the reasoning behind calling it an invest and not just saying it's a TD, as it clearly would be classified as a TD if it was in the Gulf. In any case, it's heading out to sea over cooler water.

[hurricanetrack]

So we might be up to like 15 named storms really if this were in the Gulf. Also, 95L way out in the NE Atlantic was really wound up and looked very much like anything I have ever seen named before. It would not surprise me at all to see the final number of named storms, after the season, with two more added. Yee ha.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 111502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[chadtm80]

Well, this seems to have popped up in a hurry, although I haven't been paying much attention. Kinda looks like Chantal.

This is actualy the area that use to be 93L.. I had made a few comments over the last days on this in the TT forum. The convection never really went away and no one was talking about it.. It hung around for so long that I just assumed it would eventually have "the chance"

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 is over 96L

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Looks like one of those systems that tend to form in the subtropical Atlantic at this time of year. Kinda reminds me of Noel in 1995...

[cycloneye]

Looks like one of those systems that tend to form in the subtropical Atlantic at this time of year. Kinda reminds me of Noel in 1995...

The difference is that the 1995 Noel,started way down in latitud,while this one if it gets the name,it will be much more north.

[Thunder44]

I've been watching this system the last couple of days, but NHC seemed to be ignoring it. I don't know why they decide now to mention it again. Perhaps because there's a slight chance it could threaten the Azores, before it's absorbed by the front.

[cycloneye]

This would not be 96L,but instead 93L as IMO,they would haved leave it as such all the time since it moved from North of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

11/1145 UTC 29.8N 52.6W T1.5/1.5 96L

[Ed Mahmoud]

11/1145 UTC 29.8N 52.6W T1.5/1.5 96L

Upgrade at 4:45 AST?

[Thunder44]

[b]257
WHXX01 KWBC 111843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC THU OCT 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20071011 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071011 1800 071012 0600 071012 1800 071013 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.0N 51.0W 30.4N 50.4W 30.9N 50.6W 31.8N 51.0W
BAMD 30.0N 51.0W 30.0N 48.7W 29.3N 48.2W 28.3N 49.1W
BAMM 30.0N 51.0W 30.1N 49.6W 30.2N 49.4W 30.4N 49.9W
LBAR 30.0N 51.0W 30.2N 48.7W 30.2N 47.8W 30.2N 47.7W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 33KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 33KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071013 1800 071014 1800 071015 1800 071016 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.4N 50.8W 37.3N 47.6W 41.9N 44.0W 48.1N 37.3W
BAMD 27.4N 50.4W 25.9N 52.5W 25.1N 53.4W 24.8N 52.6W
BAMM 31.0N 49.8W 32.2N 47.5W 34.4N 43.4W 39.7N 33.2W
LBAR 30.1N 48.2W 30.4N 49.5W 32.2N 49.5W 35.5N 45.1W
SHIP 26KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 54.1W DIRM12 = 68DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 28.2N LONM24 = 58.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN[/b]

18z models initialized up to 30kts but still have it as "Disturbance Invest"