Western Caribbean Thread

[boca]

As long as this low south of Cuba is attatched to the trough NE it goes.

[Vortex]

Convection becoming better organized with wave over eastern carribean near Grenada...

[Vortex]

For those interested here's a webcam link to grenada...At present very dark skies descending on island

http://webcamgrenada.com/

[Vortex]

12Z GFS rolling in shortly...

[cycloneye]

12z NAM Loop

This 12z NAM has a series of lows in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 111502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Extremely Intense Convection:
pushing NE but the core is trying to build
SW:
If this moves SW then there could be big trouble!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[BigA]

I wonder why the NHC is so strong against tropical cyclone formation in this area. Usually, they hedge and say something to the extent of "any development will be slow to occur" but here, its more or less "We're not expecting anything to happen."

[boca]

I think its because its along a trough axis, if it was by itself it would be a different story.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Will it detach from the trough and go South
or go NE?

[BigA]

I think its because its along a trough axis, if it was by itself it would be a different story.

You are probably right, but dont a lot of October Storms in the Caribbean develop off trough axes that sit in the Caribbean for a while?

[boca]

I wonder why the 11:30am tropical udate didn't mention the area down by the windwards.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The massive convective areas south
of Cuba have their cloud tops
being pushed northeast
but are actually almost
stationary and may be building
south.

I am concerned that this may not get
pulled off to the NE as it is currently predicted
to be by the globals...if it keeps developing
further south.

Not a forecast just a concern.

[Vortex]

nothing to be concerned about south of cuba..several lows along a trough axis
The area in the eastern carribean is where we need to pay close attention as this system has a good shot at development as it moves towards the central/western carribean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks vortex...so that area in the eastern
is the one that I will watch closely...
its just that grey color on the IR had me
really spooked.

[cycloneye]

Will this wave be the trigger,later on in the Centralwestern Caribbean?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye it definately has some sort
of curvature in the convection and the convection
has been looking strong this morning. In fact there
is an area of Grey (extremely intense convection)
on one side of it.

[boca]

I still don't get why the NHC is ignoring the area by the windwards. It is a tropical wave.

[Vortex]

GFS 12Z ****8th run in a row GFS develops system***

+12 Shows low formation just west of Grenada
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

+36 Just norh of SA coastline and south of DR
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

+48 A little stronger South of Haiti and North of Colombia
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

+72 South of Jamaica
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I still don't get why the NHC is ignoring the area by the windwards. It is a tropical wave.

Agree boca, this wave could really spark up the caribbean
in the next several days..