Western Caribbean Thread

[Sanibel]

I think that persisting wave east of the Antilles has just spun up into a system in the east Caribbean!

[BigA]

Looks pretty good considering that it is in the so called "graveyard of the Atlantic." That's where Dean and Felix got going earlier this year, at any rate.

I am referring to the wave in the eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 120239
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 905 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A
FEW HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
WWWW


No mention of the wave.

[Sanibel]

Clear spin on loop. What will that deep trough do to it? I think this is a quickly developing small cyclone.

[punkyg]

so is this the area your looking at?

or is this it?

[Sanibel]

This is it in the east Caribbean. I'll hold off until it develops more. I've been fooled by several already this year. We'll see what it looks like in the morning.

[BigA]

Old 94 L is still firing convection over the Yucatan. If it ever moves back over water (EPAC, Gulf, or Carib) it might get going, but I'm not sure if that will ever happen.

Carribean sure is active in terms of convection. Its the time of year that something in the WCarib could ignite.

[Sanibel]

As far as I can see old 94L is over Guatemala and stationary. Where it goes from there I don't know - but I agree, I don't count it out yet.

[Thunder44]

I guess I should post this here too, since it does include this area too:

From 5:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING
ALONG THE TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA.


FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

EX 94L still is popping up convection off Yucatan,even if the low is inland north of Guatemala.

8:05 AM TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT 1003 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER N GUATEMALA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS N BELIZE AND CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N81W INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W INCLUDING ALL OF
BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF
CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER BELIZE
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N81W THEN NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17N FROM 76W-82W INCLUDING A
PORTION OF CUBA AND ALL OF JAMAICA.

[Nimbus]

Lots of convection off Belize this morning, perhaps the lowest surface pressure has shifted off the coast as JB forecast yesterday?

[gatorcane]

hmmm, lots of convection now just east of Belize. Not liking the looks of that at all.

[wxman57]

94L is in southeastern Mexico near 16.5N/92W this morning. Mid level circulation is clearly evident. It's moved a bit northeast since yesterday. The storms east of Belize are not associated with 94L. Shear still looks too strong for development in the western Caribbean, but it may diminish by early next week.

[wxman57]

Lots of convection off Belize this morning, perhaps the lowest surface pressure has shifted off the coast as JB forecast yesterday?

A 13Z surface analysis shows pressures across NW Caribbean are slowly rising. Winds generally 5 kts or less across the region. Buoy near 20N/85W has pressure 1006.3mb now, it was 1004.7mb 4 hours ago. No evidence of anything significant at the surface.

[gatorcane]

Wxman at least not yet -- something to watch as the Wave in the E. Caribbean moves west.

[wxman57]

Wxman at least not yet -- something to watch as the Wave in the E. Caribbean moves west.

Correct. As I pointed out yesterday, I notice similarities in the current pattern across the western and central Caribbean to just before Wilma developed in 2005. I'm not saying a major hurricane will likely develop, just that we need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean for another few weeks.

[hial2]

According to the maps,there is a 1004 low analyzed off the coast of Belize,appearing to the naked eye moving slowly to the NW...

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Map of the above mentioned low....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wxman at least not yet -- something to watch as the Wave in the E. Caribbean moves west.

Correct. As I pointed out yesterday, I notice similarities in the current pattern across the western and central Caribbean to just before Wilma developed in 2005. I'm not saying a major hurricane will likely develop, just that we need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean for another few weeks.

<gags at the thought of that>