Wave over C Carribean a candidate for Development

[Vortex]

Wave over E Carribean needs to watched very closely...It will continue west and arrive over the SW carribean well S/SSW of Jamica on Sunday. At that time the wave/low should slow considerably and meander over the area for several days. What's concerning is this wave has a nice signature at this point and will be over a favored climatologicaly area in a few days. It will have very warm SST to work with and a favorable upper-air pattern. Several Globals develop this system and I agree.

In fact, I expect TC formation late Sunday/Monday over the SW carribean. I think we'll find a strengthening storm near 13N/78W on Monday. I expect this to become a strong TS at the very least but a much stronger cyclone is possible the middle of next week....I'll update 00Z Globals later...

[RL3AO]

I was just about to make a thread on this area.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THE WESTERN END
OF THE ITCZ IS NEAR 12N62W. -
MT

[Vortex]

A look at some models from earlier today...

18Z GFS at H+66
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

18Z NAM at H+24
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

12Z Canadian at H+72
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_096.jpg

12Z Nogaps at H+96
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

12Z Euro at H+120
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7101112!!/

12Z GFDL run off TD at H+126
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr



**Nearly all model output suggests that the wave over the eastern carribean will spawn low pressure and be situated over the SW carribean next week.

[TheShrimper]

Not a US problem. If it is at 13N 78W, the folks in Nicaragua will eventually have to worry. If it slows and meanders NW or N, there will be something coming thru in that time frame that will turn it NE well before it reaches 25 N. It's just that time of year, and this being this far south, somethings gonna catch it before even Fl. has to worry.

[Vortex]

Latest 115utc suggests some mid-level rotation with very deep convection bursting. Also, the ABC islands may receive some very squally weather late tonight/friday...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Vortex]

Bonaire reporting fairly low pressures this evening...

Observed at: Flamingo Airport, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles
Elevation: 20 ft / 6 m

84 °F / 29 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 77 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 8 mph / 13 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1009 hPa

[Vortex]

For those interested the 00Z Model runs start coming out at these times...

NAM 10PM
GFS 1130PM
NOGAPS 12AM
CMC 1230 AM
UKMET 1AM
EURO 315AM

[Vortex]

00Z 10/12 NAM


+12 Low formation near ABC islands
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_012l.gif

+60 SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[BigA]

Wave looks pretty solid right now. Nice ball of convection with it. It will be interesting to see with the visibles in the morning whether there is any turning.

[O Town]

[Sanibel]

Hmm, on second look I've been fooled by several spinners earlier this year. So this is either a quick-former or another mid-level spinner fooling me again.

We'll see if everybody is on it tomorrow. It looks like it is developing but it could be a wave with good eddy rotation that will disappear. LOOKS like a developer, but I'm taking no risks after what 2007 has done already.

[Vortex]

GFS 00Z 10/12

H+30 Just off the coastline of SA and due S of DR
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

H+48 NW of Colombia and S of Jamaica
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

H+96 Low just north of Panama..Notice deep moisture just south of Panama and on Pacific side. This may lift northward which would help spawn/deepen any low over the SW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

H+108
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

H+144 maintains itself over the SW carribean with little movement. Very common this time of year.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

H+174 Beginning to move Northward. I see no reason to post beyond this point as is subject to large errors in location/intensity.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

The more I study various globals and the synoptics at play the more I'm thinking the wave over the central carribean will be part of a bigger picture.

What we may see is the monsoon trough lifting north from panama and colombia the next few days and at the same time the wave over the central carribean arrives on the scene. The combination of both will likely spawn low pressure over the SW carribean or just NW of colmbia.

This is a common occurence in developing cyclones this time of year over the SW carribean. This is setting up to be an interesting week or so down south...

**Personally, I prefer the NOGAPS when dealing with the SW carribean in October. It will be interesting to see how it handles any possible future developments.

[BigA]

Looks like the GFS also shows some low emerging into the Bay of Campeche.

[Vortex]

NOGAPS 00Z 10/12 rolling in..

+60 Wave/Low over SW carribean.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060

+84 Just North of Panama

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

+108 Remains North of Panama

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108

[Vortex]

Canadian 00Z 10/12

+36 Low south of Haiti
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_036.jpg

+54 Low south of Jamaica
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_060.jpg

H+72 Low between Honduras and Jamaica
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_072.jpg

[Vortex]

Off to bed if anyone else want to finish posting...

[punkyg]

D you still think it looks good or worse?

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED HOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-69W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

On the IR loop it looks pretty good, slight cyclonic spin and persistent convection. Doesn't seem to be under heavy shear. I still think there will be at least one more significant storm before the end.

[Dean4Storms]

Like Vortex, I think this one will bear some watching once it gets into the SW Carib. It may be a impact player on the East half of the Gulf come mid-late next week.