Low Forming East of the Bahamas

[Thunder44]

I'm making a new thread because this system seems to be separating from whatever may form in the "Western Carribean" over the next few days.

Anyway, here's the 5:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING
ALONG THE TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Latest Satellite Image:

[Thunder44]

Buoy 41047, as 5:50am EDT reporting a north wind with a pressure down to 29.67" or 1005mb already:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Buoy 41046, repoted a 27.6Kt one-mintue sustained SW wind at 5:16am EDT:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

I think this will be our next invest later today, as this system heads towards Bermuda.

[punkyg]

looking good.

[wzrgirl1]

looking good.....should be an invest soon

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very nice convection and almost
looks like a wrapped around Low.

[LaBreeze]

Whatever may form in this area should head northeast away from most land areas, correct?

[Sanibel]

Just a Low forming along the escaping trough as it goes NE and out-to-sea under shear. This is what I figured would happen instead of a Caribbean system that went NW.

[Thunder44]

From the 11:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

It looked to me this morning that front was still back to west, but it looks like NHC will just leave it along for now.